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Generative AI: Catalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization?

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dc.contributor.authorLiu, Yan
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-23T18:30:01Z
dc.date.available2024-09-23T18:30:01Z
dc.date.issued2024-09-23
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a multi-sector growth model to elucidate the general equilibrium effects of generative artificial intelligence on economic growth, structural transformation, and international production specialization. Using parameters from the literature, the paper employs simulations to quantify the impacts of artificial intelligence across various scenarios. The paper introduces a crucial distinction between high-skill, highly digitalized, tradable services and low-skill, less digitalized, less-tradable services. The model’s key propositions align with empirical evidence, and the simulations yield novel and sobering predictions. Unless artificial intelligence achieves widespread cross-sector adoption and catalyzes paradigm-shifting innovations that fundamentally reshape consumer preferences, its growth benefits may be limited. Conversely, its disruptive impact on labor markets could be profound. This paper highlights the risk of “premature de-professionalization”, where artificial intelligence likely shrinks the space for countries to generate well-paid jobs in high-skill services. The analysis portends that developing countries failing to adopt artificial intelligence swiftly risk entrapment as commodity exporters, potentially facing massive youth underemployment, diminishing social mobility, and stagnating or even declining living standards. The paper also discusses artificial intelligence’s broader implications on inequality, exploring multiple channels through which it may exacerbate or mitigate economic disparities.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099520009172451039/IDU1aa745fd01bcf014ac51b11d1e9f762ce51e5
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10915
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42187
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectDECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectSDG 8
dc.subjectINDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectSDG 9
dc.subjectREDUCED INEQUALITIES
dc.subjectSDG 10
dc.titleGenerative AIen
dc.title.subtitleCatalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization?en
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleGenerative AI: Catalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization?
okr.date.disclosure2024-09-23
okr.date.lastmodified2024-09-17T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099520009172451039/IDU1aa745fd01bcf014ac51b11d1e9f762ce51e5
okr.guid099520009172451039
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-aa745fd0-bcf0-4ac5-b11d-e9f762ce51e5
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10915
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10915
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34392231
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34392231
okr.identifier.reportWPS10915
okr.import.id5342
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099520009172451039/pdf/IDU1aa745fd01bcf014ac51b11d1e9f762ce51e5.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicScience and Technology Development::Innovation
okr.topicInformation and Communication Technologies::Digital Divide
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitFinance & PSD Unit (SASFP)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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