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Ex-Ante Evaluation of Sub-National Labor Market Impacts of Trade Reforms

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dc.contributor.authorMaliszewska, Maryla
dc.contributor.authorOsorio-Rodarte, Israel
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rakesh
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-30T20:48:18Z
dc.date.available2020-11-30T20:48:18Z
dc.date.issued2020-11
dc.description.abstractA macro-micro simulation framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model can be used to assess the economic and distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks and policies. The methodology is used to assess the economic and subnational labor market impacts of a series of stylized trade policy options for the Sri Lankan economy over a 10-year time period. The analysis focuses on the impact of unilateral para-tariff liberalization, free-trade agreements with China or India, and a full-reform scenario. The simulation results show that more ambitious trade reform can result in larger gains in gross domestic product, poverty reduction, and exports, particularly in sectors employing a higher proportion of women. In the absence of additional policies, growth is not equally distributed. In all the scenarios in which the Sri Lankan economy grows, the distribution of gains is regressive. Increasing labor demand for skilled workers translates into a larger skilled wage premium -- by as much as 1.1 percent with respect to the baseline. Implementation of full trade reform accelerates the concentration of economic activity in the western regions of Colombo, Gampaha, and Kalutara. Net employment gains in the western regions would increase from 111,000 to 136,000 in the full reform scenario by 2028 and with respect to baseline conditions.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332741606143605050/Ex-Ante-Evaluation-of-Sub-National-Labor-Market-Impacts-of-Trade-Reforms
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9478
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/34833
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9478
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectTRADE REFORM
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASUREMENT
dc.subjectCGE MODEL
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.titleEx-Ante Evaluation of Sub-National Labor Market Impacts of Trade Reformsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleEx-Ante Evaluation of Sub-National Labor Market Impacts of Trade Reforms
okr.date.disclosure2020-11-23
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:58:25.974624Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332741606143605050/Ex-Ante-Evaluation-of-Sub-National-Labor-Market-Impacts-of-Trade-Reforms
okr.guid332741606143605050
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9478
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088006098_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32602590
okr.identifier.reportWPS9478
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/332741606143605050/pdf/Ex-Ante-Evaluation-of-Sub-National-Labor-Market-Impacts-of-Trade-Reforms.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryChina
okr.region.countryIndia
okr.region.countrySri Lanka
okr.statistics.combined1442
okr.statistics.dr332741606143605050
okr.statistics.drstats655
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Poverty and Trade
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Labor
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Monitoring & Analysis
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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