Publication:
Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?

dc.contributor.author Didier, Tatiana
dc.contributor.author Kose, M. Ayhan
dc.contributor.author Ohnsorge, Franziska
dc.contributor.author Ye, Lei Sandy
dc.date.accessioned 2016-01-05T22:25:28Z
dc.date.available 2016-01-05T22:25:28Z
dc.date.issued 2015-12
dc.description.abstract A synchronous growth slowdown has been underway in emerging markets (EM) since 2010. Growth in these countries is now markedly slower than, not just the pre‐crisis average, but also the long‐term average. As a group, EM growth eased from 7.6 percent in 2010 to 4.5 percent in 2014, and is projected to slow further to below 4 percent in 2015. This moderation has affected all regions (except South Asia) and is the most severe in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deceleration is highly synchronous across countries, especially among large EM. By 2015, China, Russia, and South Africa had all experienced three consecutive years of slower growth. The EM‐AE growth differential has narrowed to two percentage points in 2015, well below the 2003‐08 average of 4.8 percentage points and near the long‐term average differential of 1990‐2008. The recent slowdown in EM has been a source of a lively debate, as evident from the quotations at the beginning of this note. Some economists paint a bleak picture for the future of EM and argue that the impressive growth performance of EM prior to the crisis was driven by temporary commodity booms and rapid debt accumulation, and will not be sustained. Others emphasize that a wide range of cyclical and structural factors are driving the slowdown: weakening macroeconomic fundamentals after the crisis; prospective tightening in financial conditions; resurfacing of deep‐rooted governance problems in EM; and difficulty adjusting to disruptive technological changes. Still others highlight differences across EM and claim that some of them are in a better position to weather the slowdown and will likely register strong growth in the future. This policy research note seeks to help move the debate forward by examining the main features, drivers, and implications of the recent EM slowdown and provides a comprehensive analysis of available policy options to counteract it. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25666217/slowdown-emerging-markets-rough-patch-or-prolonged-weakness
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23566
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Note,PRN/15/04;
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject GROWTH RATES
dc.subject MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject CAPITAL GOODS
dc.subject DURABLE GOODS
dc.subject ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
dc.subject URBANIZATION
dc.subject MULTIPLIERS
dc.subject TERMS‐OF‐TRADE
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subject EXPOSURES
dc.subject OIL PRICES
dc.subject FISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subject INTEREST
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject EXPECTATIONS
dc.subject ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subject INTEREST RATE
dc.subject EMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subject PROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subject EXCHANGE
dc.subject BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject MACROECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject RESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subject LABOR FORCE
dc.subject POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subject REVENUES
dc.subject TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
dc.subject FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subject ECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subject LABOR INPUTS
dc.subject INCENTIVES
dc.subject EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subject MODELS
dc.subject CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject CENTRAL BANKS
dc.subject ENERGY TAXES
dc.subject BUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subject DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject ECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subject EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subject ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject OIL PRICES
dc.subject GLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subject OIL
dc.subject CURRENCY
dc.subject EXPORT GROWTH
dc.subject TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subject ADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subject POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject IRREVERSIBILITY
dc.subject DEBTS
dc.subject NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subject OPTIONS
dc.subject LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject INTEREST RATES
dc.subject STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject OPEC
dc.subject EMERGING MARKET
dc.subject DEBT
dc.subject SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
dc.subject GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
dc.subject TAX REFORM
dc.subject PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject DIVIDENDS
dc.subject TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subject PRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subject NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subject PRODUCTION PROCESSES
dc.subject METALS
dc.subject FINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subject SUBSIDIES
dc.subject EFFICIENCY
dc.subject PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subject TAXES
dc.subject CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
dc.subject RESOURCES
dc.subject INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subject UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject EMERGING MARKETS
dc.subject DEREGULATION
dc.subject ENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subject EQUITY
dc.subject INVESTORS
dc.subject PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subject DATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subject CONSUMPTION
dc.subject SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
dc.subject WAGES
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject VOLATILITY
dc.subject VALUES
dc.subject FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject FUTURE
dc.subject FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject ECONOMIC  GROWTH
dc.subject SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT
dc.subject DISCOUNT RATES
dc.subject CREDIT
dc.subject WORLD ECONOMY
dc.subject PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject DEMAND
dc.subject NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subject AGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subject DISINFLATION
dc.subject POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject ENVIRONMENTS
dc.subject EXPENDITURES
dc.subject CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject PROPERTY
dc.subject ADVANCED ECONOMY
dc.subject GLOBAL RISKS
dc.subject LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject LABOR FORCE
dc.subject RESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subject DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject MONETARY POLICIES
dc.subject EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject ECONOMICS
dc.subject INFLATION‐TARGETING
dc.subject TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subject SECURITIES
dc.subject OUTPUT
dc.subject GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subject CAPITAL GOODS
dc.subject GOVERNANCE
dc.subject STOCK INDEXES
dc.subject DISCOUNT RATES
dc.subject BUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subject CURRENCIES
dc.subject GOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subject ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject TRADE
dc.subject LAND
dc.subject MARKET VOLATILITY
dc.subject FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subject INVESTMENT
dc.subject BOND
dc.subject SHARE
dc.subject INVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.subject GLOBAL OUTPUT
dc.subject BALANCE SHEETS
dc.subject COAL
dc.subject BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject BANKING
dc.subject GLOBAL INVESTORS
dc.subject PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subject WORLD TRADE
dc.subject PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subject ECONOMISTS
dc.subject ENERGY TAXES
dc.subject TAX REFORM
dc.subject ECONOMIC  GROWTH
dc.subject DEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subject ENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subject LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject POWER OUTAGES
dc.subject COMMODITY
dc.subject STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject ADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subject ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject PROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subject LABOR INPUTS
dc.subject GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subject PRICES
dc.subject CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE
dc.subject ECONOMIES
dc.subject PRODUCTION PROCESSES
dc.title Slowdown in Emerging Markets en
dc.title.subtitle Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness? en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.type Document de travail fr
dc.type Documento de trabajo es
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.date.disclosure 2015-12-10
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Working Paper
okr.doctype Publications & Research
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25666217/slowdown-emerging-markets-rough-patch-or-prolonged-weakness
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 090224b083c49dba_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 25666217
okr.identifier.report 101741
okr.imported true
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/12/11/090224b083c49dba/2_0/Rendered/PDF/Slowdown0in0em00prolonged0weakness0.pdf en
okr.topic Private Sector Development :: Emerging Markets
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Economic Growth
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topic Poverty Reduction :: Pro-Poor Growth
okr.topic Finance and Financial Sector Development :: Access to Finance
okr.unit Development Prospects Group (DECPG)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication e8bf256b-feec-5fd2-9021-2f34752b8f1e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication ac9fefe8-9d4d-555d-bb68-f056fd7a3790
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 5807995a-9e0a-5d56-b622-d4d19e723613
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