Publication:
Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?

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dc.contributor.authorYe, Lei Sandy
dc.contributor.authorDidier, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorKose, M. Ayhan
dc.contributor.authorOhnsorge, Franziska
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-05T22:25:28Z
dc.date.available2016-01-05T22:25:28Z
dc.date.issued2015-12
dc.description.abstractA synchronous growth slowdown has been underway in emerging markets (EM) since 2010. Growth in these countries is now markedly slower than, not just the pre‐crisis average, but also the long‐term average. As a group, EM growth eased from 7.6 percent in 2010 to 4.5 percent in 2014, and is projected to slow further to below 4 percent in 2015. This moderation has affected all regions (except South Asia) and is the most severe in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deceleration is highly synchronous across countries, especially among large EM. By 2015, China, Russia, and South Africa had all experienced three consecutive years of slower growth. The EM‐AE growth differential has narrowed to two percentage points in 2015, well below the 2003‐08 average of 4.8 percentage points and near the long‐term average differential of 1990‐2008. The recent slowdown in EM has been a source of a lively debate, as evident from the quotations at the beginning of this note. Some economists paint a bleak picture for the future of EM and argue that the impressive growth performance of EM prior to the crisis was driven by temporary commodity booms and rapid debt accumulation, and will not be sustained. Others emphasize that a wide range of cyclical and structural factors are driving the slowdown: weakening macroeconomic fundamentals after the crisis; prospective tightening in financial conditions; resurfacing of deep‐rooted governance problems in EM; and difficulty adjusting to disruptive technological changes. Still others highlight differences across EM and claim that some of them are in a better position to weather the slowdown and will likely register strong growth in the future. This policy research note seeks to help move the debate forward by examining the main features, drivers, and implications of the recent EM slowdown and provides a comprehensive analysis of available policy options to counteract it.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25666217/slowdown-emerging-markets-rough-patch-or-prolonged-weakness
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/23566
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/23566
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Note,PRN/15/04;
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectDURABLE GOODS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectMULTIPLIERS
dc.subjectTERMS‐OF‐TRADE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectEXPOSURES
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectEXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectRESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectREVENUES
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectLABOR INPUTS
dc.subjectINCENTIVES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectMODELS
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANKS
dc.subjectENERGY TAXES
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectOIL
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectIRREVERSIBILITY
dc.subjectDEBTS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOPTIONS
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectOPEC
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectSCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE INDICATORS
dc.subjectTAX REFORM
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectDIVIDENDS
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectPRODUCTION PROCESSES
dc.subjectMETALS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectSUBSIDIES
dc.subjectEFFICIENCY
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectMARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectCAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SECURITIES
dc.subjectRESOURCES
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectDEREGULATION
dc.subjectENERGY CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectEQUITY
dc.subjectINVESTORS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectSCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectVALUES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC  GROWTH
dc.subjectSHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATES
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectMARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectDISINFLATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTS
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectPROPERTY
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL RISKS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectRESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICIES
dc.subjectEXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMICS
dc.subjectINFLATION‐TARGETING
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectSECURITIES
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectGLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE
dc.subjectSTOCK INDEXES
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATES
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCURRENCIES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectLAND
dc.subjectMARKET VOLATILITY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectBOND
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.subjectGLOBAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEETS
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectBUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectBANKING
dc.subjectGLOBAL INVESTORS
dc.subjectPRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMISTS
dc.subjectENERGY TAXES
dc.subjectTAX REFORM
dc.subjectECONOMIC  GROWTH
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectPOWER OUTAGES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectLABOR INPUTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectCAPITAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICE
dc.subjectECONOMIES
dc.subjectPRODUCTION PROCESSES
dc.titleSlowdown in Emerging Marketsen
dc.title.subtitleRough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?en
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2015-12-10
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T12:32:36.700063Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25666217/slowdown-emerging-markets-rough-patch-or-prolonged-weakness
okr.guid787221468197091401
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b083c49dba_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum25666217
okr.identifier.report101741
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/12/11/090224b083c49dba/2_0/Rendered/PDF/Slowdown0in0em00prolonged0weakness0.pdfen
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Pro-Poor Growth
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Access to Finance
okr.unitDevelopment Prospects Group (DECPG)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicatione8bf256b-feec-5fd2-9021-2f34752b8f1e
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationac9fefe8-9d4d-555d-bb68-f056fd7a3790
relation.isAuthorOfPublication5807995a-9e0a-5d56-b622-d4d19e723613
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery5807995a-9e0a-5d56-b622-d4d19e723613
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