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China's Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa

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dc.contributor.authorLakatos, Csilla
dc.contributor.authorMaliszewska, Maryla
dc.contributor.authorOsorio-Rodarte, Israel
dc.contributor.authorGo, Delfin
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-13T21:17:17Z
dc.date.available2016-06-13T21:17:17Z
dc.date.issued2016-05
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26362958/chinas-slowdown-rebalancing-potential-growth-poverty-impacts-sub-saharan-africa
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7666
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24506
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7666
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectLINES OF CREDIT
dc.subjectCUSTOMS UNION
dc.subjectFUTURE GROWTH
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE DISTORTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectCONSUMER GOODS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectCONSUMER GOODS
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectPRICE
dc.subjectINPUTS
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectSAVING
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVING
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectTECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectUSE VALUE
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectVALUE‐ADDED
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIALIZATION
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectTECHNICAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectPRICE DECLINES
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectECONOMIC REFORMS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectDOUBLE TAXATION
dc.subjectCONSUMER DEMAND
dc.subjectSUBSIDIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectTAXES
dc.subjectLDCS
dc.subjectDOUBLE TAXATION
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectINVESTMENT POLICY
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectLINES OF CREDIT
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectBARRIERS
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectFIXED CAPITAL
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENT
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE GROWTH
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectSHARES
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectINVESTMENT POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectEXPOSURE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectTAXATION
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectFUTURE STUDIES
dc.subjectUSE VALUE
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectBUSINESS CLIMATE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectCOMMUNICATION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectECONOMIC HISTORY
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectMIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectPOSITIVE EFFECTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.titleChina's Slowdown and Rebalancingen
dc.title.subtitlePotential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africaen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleChina's Slowdown and Rebalancing: Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
okr.date.disclosure2016-05-10
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26362958/chinas-slowdown-rebalancing-potential-growth-poverty-impacts-sub-saharan-africa
okr.guid976611468194051601
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7666
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7666
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b084315659_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum26362958
okr.identifier.reportWPS7666
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/05/10/090224b084315659/1_0/Rendered/PDF/China0s0slowdo0n0Sub0Saharan0Africa.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryChina
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Pro-Poor Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unitDevelopment Prospects Group, Development Economics
relation.isAuthorOfPublication165325f4-d27a-5241-80a4-eb5495c41c24
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery165325f4-d27a-5241-80a4-eb5495c41c24
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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