Publication: Diversification Paths: What can Mongolia Learn from the Export Trends of Other Resource Dependent Countries?
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2024-07-02
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2024-07-02
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Mongolia has benefited from its mineral wealth, but diversification is now a major priority. But to what extent is diversification possible, and what will it look like This paper adopts the growth identification and facilitation framework methodology to examine the extent to which other resource-rich countries at a higher level of development than Mongolia have diversified the products and services they export. The literature on diversification underscores the challenges resource-dependent economies face in diversifying, and this is supported by our analysis. The authors find that the export baskets of the six resource-rich comparator countries studied tended to be even more concentrated on resources in 2019 than they had been in 2001. There was little evidence of new industrial products emerging as important exports, and services remained a small part of total trade. However, in most of the countries, exports of some high-productivity and tradable services had grown significantly, even if they still accounted for relatively small shares of overall trade. Like the other countries included in the study, Mongolia faces challenges in diversifying out of mining, especially in terms of new manufacturing industries where its remoteness and small population are significant constraints. However, the experiences of other resource-rich countries, as well as Mongolia’s endowments, suggest that high-productivity and tradable services, such as business services and telecommunications, computer, and information services, may hold promise for future growth and diversification.
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“Betcherman, Gordon; Jalil, Mohammad Muaz. 2024. Diversification Paths: What can Mongolia Learn from the Export Trends of Other Resource Dependent Countries?. Jobs Working Paper; Issue No. 82. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41814 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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