Publication:
New Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy

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dc.contributor.authorGarrido, Leonardo
dc.contributor.authorCarneiro, Francisco G.
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-14T22:30:25Z
dc.date.available2015-07-14T22:30:25Z
dc.date.issued2015-06
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents new evidence on the patterns of cyclicality in the fiscal policy stance of developing and industrialized countries over a period of more than three decades covering 180 countries during 1980–2012. First, the paper considers issues of robustness in the choice of the proxy for fiscal cyclicality by using alternative filtering methods to check whether this influences the results and leads to any differences in a country’s reported within-period average, and across-period changes in fiscal stance. Second, a country-specific approach is used to split the sample into sub-periods based on a test for structural break in the series of real gross domestic product per capita. Third, the paper investigates the extent to which countries behave pro-cyclically or counter-cyclically in different phases of the business cycle. In line with earlier findings in the literature, the analysis confirms that there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less pro-cyclical fiscal policy, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal policy.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24596072/new-evidence-cyclicality-fiscal-policy
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7293
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22166
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7293
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectOUTPUT VOLATILITY
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCES
dc.subjectLAGS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL COUNTRY RISK GUIDE
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL CHANGE
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectBAND-PASS FILTER
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectDEBT MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectREVENUES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectCORRELATION COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectRICH ECONOMIES
dc.subjectINTERACTION TERMS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectCORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
dc.subjectRESERVE
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINSTRUMENTS
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectCHOICE
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL RULES
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME
dc.subjectCYCLICAL POLICIES
dc.subjectCRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectCRITERIA
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectHIGH INCOME
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectFLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectRECESSIONS
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectINCREASE IN EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFINANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFISCAL
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectCREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectGOOD
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL RULE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectINSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY RISK
dc.subjectLEVEL OF INCOME
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL BREAKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectPRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectPROPERTIES
dc.subjectNUISANCE PARAMETER
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectREAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectFISCAL STANCE
dc.subjectEXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPRIMARY BALANCE
dc.subjectFIXED EFFECTS
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectNEOCLASSICAL MODELS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC TIME SERIES
dc.subjectLENDING
dc.subjectCHECK
dc.subjectSTICKY PRICES
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectFISCAL BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL DISCIPLINE
dc.subjectGDP DEFLATOR
dc.subjectOUTCOMES
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPRO-CYCLICAL POLICIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGROWTH
dc.titleNew Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policyen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleNew Evidence on the Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy
okr.date.disclosure2015-06-08
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:15:41.460762Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24596072/new-evidence-cyclicality-fiscal-policy
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid319601468001191122
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7293
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b082f05011_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum24596072
okr.identifier.reportWPS7293
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/06/08/090224b082f05011/1_0/Rendered/PDF/New0evidence0o0ity0of0fiscal0policy.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographicalCaribbean
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Conditions and Volatility
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Stabilization
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal Adjustment
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.unitCaribbean Management Unit and the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice Group
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2c308a64-886c-507e-98b9-54f74364d5c4
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery2c308a64-886c-507e-98b9-54f74364d5c4
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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