Publication:
Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program

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dc.contributor.authorIacovone, Leonardo
dc.contributor.authorMcKenzie, David
dc.contributor.authorMeager, Rachael
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-18T15:13:19Z
dc.date.available2023-01-18T15:13:19Z
dc.date.issued2023-01
dc.description.abstractPolicymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. A Colombian government program which aimed to increase exporting was trialed experimentally on 200 firms with this goal in mind. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation can not reject 0 effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes like whether firms export, frequentist estimates are relatively precise, and Bayesian credible posterior intervals update to overlap almost completely with standard confidence intervals. For outcomes like increasing export variety, where the priors align with the data, the value of these priors is seen in posterior intervals that are considerably narrower than frequentist confidence intervals. Finally, for noisy outcomes like export value, posterior intervals show almost no updating from the priors, highlighting how uninformative the data are about such outcomes.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807301092338354/IDU08080a50008e3c047f40a8de0e4e6b95c2d2c
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10274
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/38493
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10274
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectBAYESIAN IMPACT EVALUATION
dc.subjectPRIOR ELICITATION
dc.subjectRANDOMIZED EXPERIMENT
dc.subjectMANAGEMENT
dc.titleBayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priorsen
dc.title.subtitleAn Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Programen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2023-01-09
okr.date.lastmodified2023-01-09T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807301092338354/IDU08080a50008e3c047f40a8de0e4e6b95c2d2c
okr.guid099807301092338354
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10274
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10274
okr.identifier.externaldocumentumIDU-8080a500-8e3c-47f4-a8de-e4e6b95c2d2c
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33974316
okr.identifier.reportWPS10274
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099807301092338354/pdf/IDU08080a50008e3c047f40a8de0e4e6b95c2d2c.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.countryColombia
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Competition Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Export Competitiveness
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Competition Policy
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Competitiveness and Competition Policy
okr.unitDECRG: Finance & Priv Sec Devt (DECFP)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication734ee1fb-8c6d-5f35-94cf-b5d89ace0d98
relation.isAuthorOfPublication148d6d6d-76e5-5d6f-9af9-98313e30551f
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery148d6d6d-76e5-5d6f-9af9-98313e30551f
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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