Publication:
Explaining the Last Consumption Boom-Bust Cycle in Ireland : The Role of News and Noise Shocks

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dc.contributor.authorDiaz Sanchez, Jose Luis
dc.date.accessioned2013-09-26T19:34:45Z
dc.date.available2013-09-26T19:34:45Z
dc.date.issued2013-06
dc.description.abstractThe objective of the paper is to explain the last boom and bust in consumption in Ireland by the failure of consumers to correctly distinguish permanent changes in productivity from temporary changes. It uses a business cycle model, where agents update their beliefs about long-run productivity using information -that they receive continuously- about the future state of the economy. The analysis finds that a large and prolonged disconnect between consumption and long-run productivity occurred in the years leading to the economic crisis, which led to -- over-consumption -- for several quarters. A strong downward adjustment in 2008 followed when Irish consumers finally realized their mistake.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17942511/explaining-last-consumption-boom-bust-cyclein-ireland-role-news-noise-shocks-explaining-last-consumption-boom-bust-cycle-ireland-role-news-noise-shocks
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6525
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/15883
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6525
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectBELIEFS
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DECISIONS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISCUSSIONS
dc.subjectE-MAIL
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectEXPECTED VALUE
dc.subjectEXPLORATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectICT
dc.subjectIDEA
dc.subjectIDEAS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINTUITION
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectLEADING
dc.subjectLEARNING
dc.subjectMAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
dc.subjectOPEN ACCESS
dc.subjectPERSONAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectRATIONAL EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectRESULT
dc.subjectRESULTS
dc.subjectUSES
dc.subjectWEB
dc.subjectnews shocks
dc.subjectlong-run productivity
dc.titleExplaining the Last Consumption Boom-Bust Cycle in Ireland : The Role of News and Noise Shocksen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionareaJobs
okr.crossref.titleExplaining the Last Consumption Boom-Bust Cycle in Ireland: The Role of News and Noise Shocks
okr.date.disclosure2013-06-07
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:05:25.594252Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17942511/explaining-last-consumption-boom-bust-cyclein-ireland-role-news-noise-shocks-explaining-last-consumption-boom-bust-cycle-ireland-role-news-noise-shocks
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeEducation
okr.globalpracticeSocial Protection and Labor
okr.globalpracticeTransport and ICT
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid933421468043156458
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6525
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20130628132412
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17942511
okr.identifier.reportWPS6525
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/06/28/000158349_20130628132412/Rendered/PDF/WPS6525.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryIreland
okr.sectorFinance
okr.themeFinancial and private sector development
okr.themeEconomic management :: Economic statistics, modeling and forecasting
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Consumption
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::E-Business
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Policies
okr.topicEducation::Knowledge for Development
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.unitOperations and Strategy Unit, Development Economics Vice Presidnecy
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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