Publication:
The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets

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dc.contributor.authorAllwine, Melanie
dc.contributor.authorRigolini, Jamele
dc.contributor.authorLópez-Calva, Luis F.
dc.date.accessioned2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.available2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.issued2013-02
dc.description.abstractAdopted on September 8, 2000, the United Nations Millennium Declaration stated as its first goal that countries "...[further] resolve to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world's people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger..." Each country committed to achieve the stated goal, regardless of their initial conditions in terms of poverty and inequality levels. This paper presents a framework to quantify how much initial conditions affect poverty reduction, given a level of "effort" (growth). The framework used in the analysis allows for the growth elasticity of poverty to vary according to changes in the income distribution along the dynamic path of growth and redistribution, unlike previous examples in the literature where this is assumed to be constant. While wealthier countries did perform better in reducing poverty in the last decade and a half (1995-2008), assuming equal initial conditions, the situation reverses: the paper finds a statistically significant negative relation between initial average income and poverty reduction performance, with the poorest countries in the sample going from the worst to the best performers in poverty reduction. The analysis also quantifies how much poorer countries would have scored better, had they had the same level of initial average income as wealthier countries. The results suggest a remarkable change in poverty reduction performance, in addition to the reversal of ranks from worst to best performers. The application of this framework goes beyond poverty targets and the Millennium Development Goals. Given the widespread use of targets to determine resource allocation in education, health, or decentralized social expenditures, it constitutes a helpful tool to measure policy performance toward all kinds of goals. The proposed framework can be useful to evaluate the importance of initial conditions on outcomes, for a wide array of policies.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17288977/unfairness-poverty-targets
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6361
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/13159
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6361
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectANNUAL % CHANGE
dc.subjectANNUAL CHANGE
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOME
dc.subjectAVERAGE MONTHLY PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectCARIBBEAN REGION
dc.subjectCHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subjectCOUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subjectDAILY INCOME
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDIMENSIONS OF POVERTY
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION EFFECT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGROWTH ELASTICITY
dc.subjectGROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEAD COUNT RATIO
dc.subjectHEADCOUNT RATIO
dc.subjectHIGH POVERTY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectINCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY CONSTANT
dc.subjectINEQUALITY LEVELS
dc.subjectLOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectLONG RUN
dc.subjectMEAN EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectMEAN INCOME
dc.subjectMEAN INCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPERFORMANCE INDICATORS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOVERTY CHANGE
dc.subjectPOVERTY CHANGES
dc.subjectPOVERTY EFFECTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVELS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASUREMENT
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION TARGETS
dc.subjectREDUCING POVERTY
dc.subjectREDUCTION IN POVERTY
dc.subjectREGIONAL AVERAGES
dc.subjectREGIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectRESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE POVERTY
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.titleThe Unfairness of (Poverty) Targetsen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24873 Accepted journal manuscript
okr.crossref.titleThe Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets
okr.date.disclosure2013-02-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:11:17.322394Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17288977/unfairness-poverty-targets
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.guid353391468330924302
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6361
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20130213160330
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum17288977
okr.identifier.reportWPS6361
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/02/13/000158349_20130213160330/Rendered/PDF/wps6361.pdfen
okr.topicServices and Transfers to Poor
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Regional Economic Development
okr.topicPoverty Monitoring and Analysis
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb51f7805-9174-58dc-a585-0ca1b7edbebc
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4a5ab8d0-522b-5033-8fc3-5372cdcf7860
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb51f7805-9174-58dc-a585-0ca1b7edbebc
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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