Publication:
The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets

dc.contributor.author Allwine, Melanie
dc.contributor.author Rigolini, Jamele
dc.contributor.author López-Calva, Luis F.
dc.date.accessioned 2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.available 2013-04-11T19:31:08Z
dc.date.issued 2013-02
dc.description.abstract Adopted on September 8, 2000, the United Nations Millennium Declaration stated as its first goal that countries "...[further] resolve to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world's people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger..." Each country committed to achieve the stated goal, regardless of their initial conditions in terms of poverty and inequality levels. This paper presents a framework to quantify how much initial conditions affect poverty reduction, given a level of "effort" (growth). The framework used in the analysis allows for the growth elasticity of poverty to vary according to changes in the income distribution along the dynamic path of growth and redistribution, unlike previous examples in the literature where this is assumed to be constant. While wealthier countries did perform better in reducing poverty in the last decade and a half (1995-2008), assuming equal initial conditions, the situation reverses: the paper finds a statistically significant negative relation between initial average income and poverty reduction performance, with the poorest countries in the sample going from the worst to the best performers in poverty reduction. The analysis also quantifies how much poorer countries would have scored better, had they had the same level of initial average income as wealthier countries. The results suggest a remarkable change in poverty reduction performance, in addition to the reversal of ranks from worst to best performers. The application of this framework goes beyond poverty targets and the Millennium Development Goals. Given the widespread use of targets to determine resource allocation in education, health, or decentralized social expenditures, it constitutes a helpful tool to measure policy performance toward all kinds of goals. The proposed framework can be useful to evaluate the importance of initial conditions on outcomes, for a wide array of policies. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17288977/unfairness-poverty-targets
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13159
dc.language English
dc.language.iso en_US
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6361
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ANNUAL % CHANGE
dc.subject ANNUAL CHANGE
dc.subject AVERAGE INCOME
dc.subject AVERAGE MONTHLY PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject CARIBBEAN REGION
dc.subject CHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subject COUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subject DAILY INCOME
dc.subject DATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subject DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subject DEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subject DIMENSIONS OF POVERTY
dc.subject DISTRIBUTION EFFECT
dc.subject DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE
dc.subject ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subject EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject EXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subject FOOD POLICY
dc.subject GINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subject GROWTH ELASTICITY
dc.subject GROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subject GROWTH RATES
dc.subject HEAD COUNT RATIO
dc.subject HEADCOUNT RATIO
dc.subject HIGH POVERTY
dc.subject HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subject IMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject INCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subject INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject INCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subject INEQUALITY CONSTANT
dc.subject INEQUALITY LEVELS
dc.subject LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject LONG RUN
dc.subject MEAN EXPENDITURES
dc.subject MEAN INCOME
dc.subject MEAN INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION
dc.subject PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
dc.subject POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subject POOR
dc.subject POOR COUNTRIES
dc.subject POVERTY CHANGE
dc.subject POVERTY CHANGES
dc.subject POVERTY EFFECTS
dc.subject POVERTY GAP
dc.subject POVERTY IMPACT
dc.subject POVERTY LEVELS
dc.subject POVERTY LINE
dc.subject POVERTY MEASUREMENT
dc.subject POVERTY MEASURES
dc.subject POVERTY RATE
dc.subject POVERTY RATES
dc.subject POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS
dc.subject POVERTY REDUCTION TARGETS
dc.subject REDUCING POVERTY
dc.subject REDUCTION IN POVERTY
dc.subject REGIONAL AVERAGES
dc.subject REGIONAL POVERTY
dc.subject RESOURCE ALLOCATION
dc.subject STANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE POVERTY
dc.subject SUSTAINABLE POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.title The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets en
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.associatedcontent https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24873 Accepted journal manuscript
okr.date.disclosure 2013-02-01
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype Publications & Research
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/02/17288977/unfairness-poverty-targets
okr.globalpractice Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice Poverty
okr.identifier.doi 10.1596/1813-9450-6361
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 000158349_20130213160330
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 17288977
okr.identifier.report WPS6361
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/02/13/000158349_20130213160330/Rendered/PDF/wps6361.pdf en
okr.topic Services and Transfers to Poor
okr.topic Poverty Reduction :: Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topic Poverty Reduction :: Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth :: Regional Economic Development
okr.topic Poverty Monitoring and Analysis
okr.unit Development Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume 1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication b51f7805-9174-58dc-a585-0ca1b7edbebc
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 4a5ab8d0-522b-5033-8fc3-5372cdcf7860
relation.isSeriesOfPublication 26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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