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Leading Indicator Project : Lithuania

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dc.contributor.authorEverhart, Stephen S.
dc.contributor.authorDuval-Hernandez, Robert
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-13T19:48:34Z
dc.date.available2015-02-13T19:48:34Z
dc.date.issued2000-06
dc.description.abstractThe authors present a method for forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as total industrial production. They construct a series which they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the result of the economy's deviations from its long-term trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in economic activity. The indicator they select for economic activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted, becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the reference series. Variables include economically, and statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector, and business survey data. They base selection of the components of the leading indicator on the forecast efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the de-trended Index of Industrial Production. They apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter method for de-trending the series. This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally adjusted series, into cyclical and trend components. One advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend. The OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth cycles in the economies of its member countries. These exercises have been very effective in their forecasting ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is essential to have an adequate statistical system that provides many economic variables in a precise and timely manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD technique, and present an application to a country of the former Soviet Union.en
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2365
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/21459
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 2365
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectgrowth models
dc.subjectcyclical swings
dc.subjecteconomic growth
dc.subjectindustrial production
dc.subjectaggregate variability
dc.subjecteconomic indicators
dc.subjectgrowth patterns
dc.subjecteconomic forecasts
dc.subjectindexes of economic conditions
dc.subjectfinancial indicators
dc.subjectmonetary indexes
dc.subjectreal variables
dc.subjectbusiness data processing
dc.subjectstatistical information
dc.subjectindustrialized societies
dc.subjecttransition economies
dc.subjectbenchmark
dc.subjectburns
dc.subjectcarbon
dc.subjectcarbon dioxide
dc.subjectcarbon dioxide emissions
dc.subjectcentral banks
dc.subjectcorrelations
dc.subjecteconomic activity
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjecteconomic research
dc.subjectemissions
dc.subjectemissions taxes
dc.subjectemployment
dc.subjectenvironmental policy
dc.subjectexchange rate
dc.subjectexercises
dc.subjectforecasts
dc.subjectforestry
dc.subjectfree trade
dc.subjectgrowth rate
dc.subjectinterest rate
dc.subjectinterest rates
dc.subjectjoint implementation
dc.subjectleading indicators
dc.subjectmacroeconomics
dc.subjectmethodology
dc.subjectmodeling
dc.subjectmultilateral trade
dc.subjectprivate sector
dc.subjectreliability
dc.subjectresearch working papers
dc.subjectsurvey data
dc.subjecttechniques
dc.subjecttime series
dc.subjecttime series analysis
dc.subjecttrade liberalization
dc.subjecttrough
dc.subjectunemployment
dc.subjectvariability
dc.subjectviolence
dc.subjectweighting
dc.subjectwelfare effects
dc.titleLeading Indicator Project : Lithuaniaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleLeading Indicator Project: Lithuania
okr.date.disclosure2000-06-30
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:53:51.992388Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid652961468772455648
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-2365
okr.identifier.reportWPS2365
okr.language.supporteden
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryLithuania
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Modeling and Statistics
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.unitPoverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Units, Europe and Central Asia and Latin America and the Carribean Regions, and the Mexico Country Management Unit
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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