Publication: Growth and Resilience: Pacific Islands Systematic Country Diagnostic Update, January 2023
Loading...
Date
2023-04-18
ISSN
Published
2023-04-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The systematic country diagnostic (SCD) covers a group of nine small Pacific Island countries (PIC-9) - Kiribati, Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The document updates the previous SCD, completed in 2016, and assesses the emerging challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing climate change risks. It refreshes the pathways identified in the earlier SCD to reflect underlying structural constraints as well as emerging impediments to development now in the foreground; the pathways to development are: (1) increased economic opportunities; (2) maximizing human capital and its economic returns; and (3) building more resilient incomes and livelihoods. As the PIC-9 SCD update shows, while each country is unique, there are common challenges across the region. Moreover, development priorities cannot be viewed in isolation - they are largely interconnected, with progress in one area depending on progress in many others.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Gould, David M.; Wai-Poi, Matthew, editors. 2023. Growth and Resilience: Pacific Islands Systematic Country Diagnostic Update, January 2023. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39707 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Systematic Country Diagnostic for the Eight Small Pacific Island Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01-20)This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) covers eight small Pacific island countries (PIC8): Kiribati, Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The objective of the SCD is to identify the most critical constraints and opportunities facing the PIC8 to meet the global goals of ending absolute poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. The report is intended to help these countries, the World Bank and other development partners establish a dialogue to focus their efforts around the key priorities and activities that have high impact and are aligned with the two goals. The regional approach of this SCD is driven by the similarity of development challenges faced by these countries and the importance of regional solutions to these challenges. The SCD also highlights that economic opportunities available to the Pacific island countries are limited. While these opportunities have been known for a long time, the experience of most of these countries in realizing these opportunities has been disappointing, reflected in the poor growth performance of the PIC8. A realistic assessment of these opportunities as well as of the measures needed to realize them is essential. In this context, deep sea mining is seen by some of the PIC8 as the next big opportunity, while at the same time many raise concerns about its possible environmental impacts. This is thus an area that would benefit from an objective assessment of risks and opportunities that could inform policy choices in the PIC8. With the liberalization of telecoms markets and investments in fiber-optic cables that connect many of the PIC8, new opportunities to overcome the tyranny of distance through a focus on knowledge products may become available and deserve a critical assessment. The Pacific Possible research program led by the World Bank Group is providing new insights into the potential of these game-changers.Publication Somalia Systematic Country Diagnostic Update, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-13)The central message of this Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update is that Somalia should accelerate the momentum in building its institutions to develop resilience and create jobs, thus serving as a basis for transitioning from fragility to reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity. Poverty remains widespread, with growth and job creation insufficient for lifting incomes. The SCD update uses data from the 2022 Somalia integrated household budget survey (SIHBS), which is the first comprehensive household budget survey undertaken since the collapse of the state in 1991. Since SCD1, there have been modest improvements in some non-monetary dimensions of welfare. Somalia has benefited from new sources of financial support, which are helping to strengthen institutions through the advancement of the debt relief process. This SCD update reaffirms that the binding constraints and priorities presented in SCD1 remain valid. The SCD update presents five high-level outcomes (HLOs) that consider the progress made since SCD1, as well as the availability of new analytical work.Publication Lesotho Systematic Country Diagnostic Update(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)The 2015 Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) emphasized the need to shift from a public sector-driven to a private sector-driven, export-oriented, and job-creating economic growth model. This SCD Update revisits the constraints and priority interventions identified in the 2015 SCD and posits that most of the challenges and binding constraints identified in the first SCD remain valid today.Publication Azerbaijan Systematic Country Diagnostic Update(Washington, DC, 2022-06-27)The Azerbaijan Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) Update 2022 identifies the most critical challenges facing the government in the effort to achieve the country’s national goals and the twin goals of eradicating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. It also identifies policy priorities to address these challenges within a changing economic and geopolitical environment. The SCD is a comprehensive evidence-based analysis founded on the latest data and analyses available. The document benefited from comments and feedback provided by stakeholders in Azerbaijan, including national authorities, the private sector, and civil society. By reflecting voices on the ground, the SCD is intended to support the implementation of the country’s development agenda as outlined in “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio-Economic Development” (Azerbaijan 2030) (President of the Republic of Azerbaijan 2021). The analysis is built on the findings of the first generation Azerbaijan SCD, which was published in 2015, and also updates the analysis to account for recent developments since 2015. The SCD likewise plays a crucial role in providing an analytical basis for the Country Partnership Framework (CPF), a document that will guide the World Bank’s engagement and partnership with the government of Azerbaijan over the next four to six years.Publication Kyrgyz Republic - Systematic Country Diagnostic Update(Washington, DC, 2023-05-04)The Kyrgyz Republic has recorded steady progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity over the past twenty years. The government’s national development program to 2040 sets a clear target for continued growth and improved living standards. The overarching theme of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) update is the need to improve the economic environment to create jobs and efficiently provide public goods and services while ensuring the efficiency of natural resources to build climate resilience, reduce vulnerability, and support green growth. The central goals of rising prosperity and falling poverty face three threats in the current international context: (i) slowing global growth and higher vulnerability to external shocks - disruptions to trade and transit, food, and energy price shocks that jeopardize the progress on fighting poverty, and climate shocks; (ii) a decline in competitiveness as relative productivity performance deteriorates because of poor opportunities for the private sector amidst dominant state owned enterprises (SOEs), large infrastructure gaps, and inadequate banking and capital markets; and (iii) institutional under-preparedness to address the new generation of complex development tasks and manage risks through long neglect, especially in public policy and governance, but also in capabilities to handle climate change risks. In this context, this report finds that the transition of the Kyrgyz economy to productivity driven growth is constrained by the following key issues: continued dependence on old drivers of growth; progress on poverty reduction and inclusion stalls, and the potential for further gains remains uncertain; little progress on institutional reforms and governance strengthening; and increased environmental risks, natural resource degradation, and vulnerabilities.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Pacific Economic Update, February 2023(Washington DC, 2023-03-14)This publication is the inaugural edition of the future publication series on Pacific Economic Update (PEU). It consists of two parts. Part A analyzes the recent economic developments in Pacific Islands. Based on these developments, the PI EU summarizes the outlook for the region’s economies and risks to this outlook. Second, the PEU provides an in-depth examination of a public debt issues in the Pacific and proposes policy recommendations to address public debt related challenges. The PEU is intended for a broad set of audience, including regional forums, policy makers, business leaders, international donors and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in the economies of Pacific Island countries. In dealing with the challenges of rising inflation, tepid recovery from the pandemic and global slowdown, the PICs should strike a balance between supporting livelihoods and reducing future public debt risks. The need for fiscal support during the current environment of high inflation and tepid economic recovery is understandable as it provides the much needed relief for vulnerable households and businesses to navigate the crisis. Nonetheless, these support measures create significant fiscal burdens, and are unsustainable, particularly if the high energy and food prices persist longer than envisaged. Most PICs already face low capacity to finance unexpected shocks which would be further tested by a natural disaster event. Therefore, PICs should tread a delicate balance between fiscal support measures and achieving fiscal sustainability. Any forthcoming fiscal support should be well-targeted, time-bound, and deficit-neutral. Over the medium-term, fiscal efficiency gains and ongoing donor support is critical to finance key development challenges and climate adaptation. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation measures could include improving the efficiency of tax collections and eliminating tax exemptions. On the expenditure side, PICs have limited room to sharply cut spending given the expected modest growth and ongoing development needs. Therefore, it becomes imperative to improve the efficiency of public spending, to maximize social dividends for every dollar spent. Resulting savings from fiscal consolidation measures could help build sovereign wealth funds to provide added fiscal buffers during shocks and economic downturns. Due to high vulnerability to disasters and climate change, PICs will need to seek ongoing concessional financing for critical climate adaptation and development needs.Publication Papua New Guinea Country Economic Memorandum(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-13)The Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) focuses on long-term growth, outlining the challenges Papua New Guinea (PNG) faces to achieve sufficient economic growth to expand the incomes of its rapidly growing population as well as what is required for PNG to make the transition to a higher, more stable, and more inclusive growth path. PNG’s modest headline economic growth has translated into limited per capita income growth in the past four decades. While the economy expanded by 3.2 percent on average during 1980-2021, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) recorded an average annual growth rate of only 0.9 percent. Moreover, the gap between PNG’s per capita income level and those of its peer countries has widened. Despite being at a similar level of development in the 1970s and having enormous natural wealth, PNG’s income level is diverging away from the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region. This calls for a renewed policy focus on boosting economic growth, by addressing PNG’s excessive macroeconomic volatility, low productivity growth, and high reliance on natural capital as opposed to human and physical capital.Publication Pacific Economic Update, March 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-07)In 2023, growth in the Pacific islands (PIC-11) decelerated but remained robust at 5.5 percent—about two and a half times the long-term average. Fiji’s output surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2023 despite a notable deceleration, with growth rates halving from 20 percent in 2022 to eight percent in 2023. The PIC-11, excluding Fiji, experienced a noteworthy rebound of 2.7 percent growth in 2023, after a 0.5 percent output contraction in 2022. The trajectory of accelerated and sustainable growth in Pacific Island countries depends on a workforce that is well educated and equipped with enhanced skills and capabilities. Boosting education and skills is essential for long-term growth and poverty reduction in the Pacific Island countries. While multiple factors influence learning, once a child enters school, teachers have the largest impact. A robust body of evidence guides policymakers in improving teaching quality and ensuring that all young children acquire strong foundational skills. This report outlines a three-pronged program of action based on this evidence: attracting and recruiting effective teachers, enhancing existing teachers’ capacity, and motivating greater teacher effort. Recognizing that 54 percent of teachers expected to teach in 2035 are already recruited, the report emphasizes a special focus on enhancing the capacity of existing teachers. It provides examples of rigorously evaluated interventions, such as structured pedagogy and access to pre-recorded lectures by highly rated teachers. Implementing these recommendations will aid regional countries in accelerating learning, allowing children and societies to achieve their aspirations.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-13)The objectives of this report include providing an estimate of the direct economic damage to physical assets caused by the December 17, 2024, earthquake in Vanuatu, providing information on the sectoral and spatial distribution of damage, and, in so doing, supporting the development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. The data sources used are highlighted in Annex A. This GRADE assessment is intended as a rapid remote estimate prepared within a short timeframe to inform early decision-making. It is not intended as a substitute for detailed on-the-ground analysis, which may be conducted weeks and months after an event. The GRADE assessment should be interpreted as a first-order estimation of direct damages, albeit with a significant degree of reliability. While there is confidence in the overall damage estimates and distribution of damage, the confidence level at the individual asset level is low. Therefore, results are presented at aggregated levels.