Publication:
Conflict and the Composition of Economic Activity in Afghanistan

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dc.contributor.authorGaldo, Virgilio
dc.contributor.authorLopez-Acevedo, Gladys
dc.contributor.authorRama, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-19T18:22:50Z
dc.date.available2020-03-19T18:22:50Z
dc.date.issued2020-03
dc.description.abstractDespite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict intensity affect not only the formal sector, but also informal and illicit activities. Nighttime light provides a proxy for aggregate economic activity, mobile phone traffic by registered firms captures fluctuations in formal sector output, and the land surface devoted to poppy cultivation gives a measure of illicit production. The unit of observation is the district and the period of reference is 2012-16. The same dynamic specification and controls are used for the estimation in the three cases, making the results comparable across sectors. Controls include the presence of combat troops and the level of foreign aid at the local level, which both influence local living standards in Afghanistan. The results show that an increase in conflict-related casualties has a strong negative impact on formal economic activity in the following quarter and a positive effect on illicit activity after two quarters. The impact on aggregate economic activity is negative, but more muted.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/407711584460216528/Conflict-and-the-Composition-of-Economic-Activity-in-Afghanistan
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9188
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/33448
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9188
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectINFORMALITY
dc.subjectILLICIT ACTIVITY
dc.subjectPOPPY CULTIVATION
dc.titleConflict and the Composition of Economic Activity in Afghanistanen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleConflict and the Composition of Economic Activity in Afghanistan
okr.date.disclosure2020-03-17
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/407711584460216528/Conflict-and-the-Composition-of-Economic-Activity-in-Afghanistan
okr.guid407711584460216528
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9188
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9188
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b087715eb0_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum31874466
okr.identifier.reportWPS9188
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/407711584460216528/pdf/Conflict-and-the-Composition-of-Economic-Activity-in-Afghanistan.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryAfghanistan
okr.statistics.combined1494
okr.statistics.dr407711584460216528
okr.statistics.drstats892
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicSocial Development::Crime and Society
okr.unitPoverty and Equity Global Practice
relation.isAuthorOfPublication268c09e1-715c-55a0-bb0c-359d92eab2e2
relation.isAuthorOfPublication10ae4f7d-00f2-5094-bedc-333c3ad8abe7
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery10ae4f7d-00f2-5094-bedc-333c3ad8abe7
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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