Publication: Consequences of Civil Conflict
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2011
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2012-06-26
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Uses data from World Development Indicators, UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Data, and World Bank state fragility assessments to study the development consequences and relationship of internal armed conflict and state fragility in terms of seven of the Millennium Development Goals. Methods used to analyze these relationships include averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. These analyses leave no doubt that conflict, fragility, and poor development outcomes are closely related, especially in the developing countries of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the difficulty of analyzing the effect of conflict on a set of indicators that are also causally related to the onset of conflict, conflict and fragility are found at least to exacerbate these pre-existing conditions.
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“Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard. 2011. Consequences of Civil Conflict. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9071 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Consequences of Civil Conflict(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-10-26)This paper reviews the literature on the development consequences of internal armed conflict and state fragility and analyzes the relationship using data from World Development Indicators, Ukraine Corporate Development Project UCDP/Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Data (ACD), and World Bank state fragility assessments. Our main focus is on a set of development indicators that capture seven of the Millennium Development Goals, but the author also look briefly into the effect of conflict and fragility on growth, human rights abuses, and democratization. The author analyze these relationships using a variety of methods, averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator over the time frame for which we have data; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. In section two, the author summarizes the methodological choices and presents our conflict data. Section three summarizes the results of our analysis. 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This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.Publication Introduction : The Aftermath of Civil War(2008)This article introduces the special issue on 'The Aftermath of Civil War' and presents the research project from which the articles in this issue originate. 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