Publication: Consequences of Civil Conflict
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2011
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2012-06-26
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Uses data from World Development Indicators, UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Data, and World Bank state fragility assessments to study the development consequences and relationship of internal armed conflict and state fragility in terms of seven of the Millennium Development Goals. Methods used to analyze these relationships include averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. These analyses leave no doubt that conflict, fragility, and poor development outcomes are closely related, especially in the developing countries of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the difficulty of analyzing the effect of conflict on a set of indicators that are also causally related to the onset of conflict, conflict and fragility are found at least to exacerbate these pre-existing conditions.
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“Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard. 2011. Consequences of Civil Conflict. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9071 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Consequences of Civil Conflict(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-10-26)This paper reviews the literature on the development consequences of internal armed conflict and state fragility and analyzes the relationship using data from World Development Indicators, Ukraine Corporate Development Project UCDP/Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) Armed Conflict Data (ACD), and World Bank state fragility assessments. Our main focus is on a set of development indicators that capture seven of the Millennium Development Goals, but the author also look briefly into the effect of conflict and fragility on growth, human rights abuses, and democratization. The author analyze these relationships using a variety of methods, averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator over the time frame for which we have data; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. In section two, the author summarizes the methodological choices and presents our conflict data. Section three summarizes the results of our analysis. Finally, section four analyzes the effects of internal armed conflict on the attainment of the individual Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).Publication Demographic and Health Consequences of Civil Conflict(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011)Explains that the well-being of individuals and families in conflict and post-conflict states is a key condition for sustainable peace and long-term development, and matches within countries the differences in scale and intensity of civil conflict with the needs of the affected populations. After a steady post-Cold War decline, the number of ongoing civil conflicts in poor countries increased for the first time to 30 in 2007, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme (UCDP). These conflicts subject the civilian population, including women and children, to arbitrary violence and to systematic and long-term deprivations of food and public health services. 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