Publication:
Global Economic Prospects, June 2012: Managing Growth in a Volatile World

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2013-01-04T20:56:36Z
dc.date.available2013-01-04T20:56:36Z
dc.date.issued2012-06
dc.description.abstractThe year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.en
dc.description.abstractEl comienzo de 2012 fue positivo. La percepción de los mercados mejoró notablemente y los países en desarrollo moderaron su política monetaria, lo que se reflejó en un repunte de la actividad económica en general. Tanto la producción industrial como el comercio y la venta de bienes de capital consiguieron resultados positivos, saliendo así del letargo del último trimestre de 2011. Una vez más, los países en desarrollo lideraron la recuperación y ayudaron a la zona del euro a alcanzar un crecimiento marginalmente positivo en los primeros tres meses del año. A pesar de ello, el agotamiento de la capacidad puede convertirse en una limitación grave para las principales economías en desarrollo. Las proyecciones indican que el crecimiento se ralentizará en 2012 pero luego comenzará a repuntar lentamente. Si bien el desenlace más probable será la disminución de las tensiones en la economía mundial, todavía no es posible descartar que las condiciones se deterioren aún más. Si esto ocurre, las economías en desarrollo no lograrán recuperarse tan rápidamente como lo hicieron en 2008-09. En caso de crisis, todos los países en desarrollo se verán afectados. Esto significa que volver a políticas macroeconómicas más neutrales podría servir para reducir su vulnerabilidad ante golpes externos, ya que contribuye a recuperar espacio fiscal, reducir la exposición de la deuda a corto plazo y reactivar las medidas de amortiguación que les permitieron sortear la crisis de 2008-09.es
dc.description.abstractCette note résume les perspectives de l’économie mondiale telles qu’entrevues en juin 2012. Du point de vue de ce document, l’année 2012 a commencé sur une note favorable. Le sentiment du marché s’est nettement amélioré, et la politique monétaire s’est assouplie dans les pays en développement, le tout conduisant à une reprise de l'activité économique tant dans les pays développés que dans les pays en développement. La production industrielle, le commerce, et la vente des biens d’équipement se sont tous améliorés suite au ralentissement de la croissance au quatrième trimestre de 2011. Les pays en développement conduisent encore la reprise, en tirant la zone euro vers une croissance de PIB légèrement positive au premier trimestre. Toutefois, depuis le début du mois de mai, une grande partie de ce progrès a été remise en cause avec la réapparition des turbulences de la zone euro qui ont troublé les marchés financiers dans le monde entier. Même en l'absence d'une véritable crise, les déficits budgétaires et les dettes élevés des pays à haut revenu, ainsi que leurs politiques monétaires trop souples, indiquent que dans un avenir prévisible, l'environnement externe pour les économies en développement est susceptible de rester caractérisé par des flux de capitaux volatils et une incertitude accrue des investisseurs. Par conséquent, les fortes variations de l'humeur des investisseurs et les conditions financières continueront à compliquer la mise en œuvre de la politique macroéconomique dans les pays en développement.fr
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/12096
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/12106
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectaccounting
dc.subjectarbitrage
dc.subjectassets
dc.subjectbailout
dc.subjectbank lending
dc.subjectBank Loans
dc.subjectbanking systems
dc.subjectbasis points
dc.subjectbinding constraint
dc.subjectbond
dc.subjectbond issuance
dc.subjectBond Issues
dc.subjectbond spreads
dc.subjectBond Yields
dc.subjectbonds
dc.subjectborrowing costs
dc.subjectbudget constraint
dc.subjectbuffers
dc.subjectbusiness confidence
dc.subjectcapacity constraints
dc.subjectcapital constraints
dc.subjectcapital goods
dc.subjectcapital inflows
dc.subjectcapital markets
dc.subjectCapital outflows
dc.subjectcapital requirements
dc.subjectcapitalization
dc.subjectCDS
dc.subjectcentral bank
dc.subjectCommodities
dc.subjectcommodity
dc.subjectcommodity markets
dc.subjectcommodity price
dc.subjectcommodity prices
dc.subjectcommodity traders
dc.subjectconsumer demand
dc.subjectconsumer goods
dc.subjectconsumer spending
dc.subjectCopyright Clearance
dc.subjectCopyright Clearance Center
dc.subjectcountry capital
dc.subjectcountry debt
dc.subjectcountry Equity
dc.subjectCredit Default
dc.subjectCredit Default Swap
dc.subjectcredit squeeze
dc.subjectcredit squeezes
dc.subjectcrisis countries
dc.subjectCurrent account balance
dc.subjectcurrent account balances
dc.subjectcurrent account deficit
dc.subjectcurrent account deficits
dc.subjectdebt
dc.subjectDebt data
dc.subjectdebt flows
dc.subjectdebt levels
dc.subjectdebt obligations
dc.subjectdebt restructuring
dc.subjectdebt stocks
dc.subjectdebts
dc.subjectdecline in investment
dc.subjectdeposits
dc.subjectdeveloping countries
dc.subjectdeveloping country
dc.subjectDeveloping country Equity
dc.subjectdeveloping economies
dc.subjectdeveloping economy
dc.subjectdomestic markets
dc.subjectdownside scenario
dc.subjectdurable
dc.subjectdurables
dc.subjectEconomic developments
dc.subjectEmerging Markets
dc.subjectEmerging-market
dc.subjectEquities
dc.subjectequity issuance
dc.subjectEquity Issues
dc.subjectEquity market
dc.subjectEquity markets
dc.subjectexchange rate
dc.subjectExchange Rates
dc.subjectexpenditure
dc.subjectexpenditures
dc.subjectexport growth
dc.subjectexport value Interest Rates
dc.subjectexporter
dc.subjectexporters
dc.subjectexposures
dc.subjectexternal shocks
dc.subjectfinancial crises
dc.subjectfinancial crisis
dc.subjectfinancial institutions
dc.subjectfinancial integration
dc.subjectfinancial market
dc.subjectfinancial markets
dc.subjectfinancial sector
dc.subjectfinancial sector developments
dc.subjectfinancial sectors
dc.subjectfinancial systems
dc.subjectfinancing requirements
dc.subjectfiscal consolidation
dc.subjectfiscal deficits
dc.subjectfiscal policies
dc.subjectfiscal policy
dc.subjectfood price
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectforeign banks
dc.subjectforeign currency
dc.subjectGlobal Economy
dc.subjectglobal finance
dc.subjectglobal financial markets
dc.subjectglobal financial systems
dc.subjectglobal output
dc.subjectglobal trade
dc.subjectGovernment account
dc.subjectgovernment accounts
dc.subjectGovernment budget
dc.subjectgovernment debt
dc.subjectgovernment deficit
dc.subjectgovernment deficits
dc.subjectgovernment expenditure
dc.subjectgovernment expenditures
dc.subjectgovernment revenue
dc.subjectgovernment revenues
dc.subjectgovernment spending
dc.subjectGross debt
dc.subjectgrowth rate
dc.subjectgrowth rates
dc.subjectHigh-Income Countries
dc.subjecthigh-income country
dc.subjecthousehold savings
dc.subjecthuman capital
dc.subjectimport
dc.subjectimport demand
dc.subjectIncome
dc.subjectincome growth
dc.subjectincomes
dc.subjectInflation
dc.subjectinflation rates
dc.subjectinflationary pressures
dc.subjectinterest rates
dc.subjectInternational Bank
dc.subjectinternational business
dc.subjectInternational capital
dc.subjectInternational capital flows
dc.subjectinternational financial institutions
dc.subjectinternational financial markets
dc.subjectinternational reserves
dc.subjectInternational Settlements
dc.subjectInternational Trade
dc.subjectinvesting
dc.subjectinvestment activity
dc.subjectinvestment spending
dc.subjectlenders
dc.subjectlevel of risk
dc.subjectloan
dc.subjectlocal currency
dc.subjectlow-income countries
dc.subjectmacroeconomic policies
dc.subjectmacroeconomic policy
dc.subjectMacroeconomic vulnerabilities
dc.subjectmarket conditions
dc.subjectmarket price
dc.subjectmarket prices
dc.subjectMarket regulators
dc.subjectmaturity
dc.subjectmiddle-income countries
dc.subjectMonetary Fund
dc.subjectmonetary policies
dc.subjectmonetary policy
dc.subjectnatural disasters
dc.subjectNet capital
dc.subjectoil commodities
dc.subjectoil price
dc.subjectoil prices
dc.subjectOutput
dc.subjectOutput Gap
dc.subjectoutput gaps
dc.subjectpolitical stability
dc.subjectpolitical uncertainty
dc.subjectPortfolio
dc.subjectportfolio capital
dc.subjectpost-crisis period
dc.subjectpower parity
dc.subjectprivate banks
dc.subjectPrivate creditors
dc.subjectPrivate debt
dc.subjectprivate inflows
dc.subjectpublic spending
dc.subjectpurchasing power
dc.subjectpurchasing power parity
dc.subjectrate of growth
dc.subjectreal interest
dc.subjectreal interest rates
dc.subjectRegional trade
dc.subjectregulators
dc.subjectremittances
dc.subjectreserve
dc.subjectreturn
dc.subjectrisk assessments
dc.subjectrisk aversion
dc.subjectsavings
dc.subjectsavings rate
dc.subjectshort-term debt
dc.subjectsmall countries
dc.subjectsovereign debt
dc.subjectstock markets
dc.subjectsustainable growth
dc.subjecttechnological change
dc.subjecttrade deficit
dc.subjecttrade finance
dc.subjecttrading
dc.subjecttransition countries
dc.subjectTreasury
dc.subjectTreasury Yields
dc.subjectvalue index
dc.subjectvolatile capital
dc.subjectvolatility
dc.subjectweights
dc.subjectwithdrawal
dc.subjectworld economy
dc.subjectWorld Trade
dc.titleGlobal Economic Prospects, June 2012en
dc.titlePerspectivas económicas mundiales: gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volátil - Resumen ejecutivo (Vol. 1)es
dc.titlePerspectives de l’économie mondiale : Gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil - Résuméfr
dc.title.alternativePerspectives de l'economie mondiale : gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil Perspectivas economicas mundiales : gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volatiles
dc.title.alternativePerspectives de l'economie mondiale : gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil Perspectivas economicas mundiales : gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volatilfr
dc.title.subtitleManaging Growth in a Volatile Worlden
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2012-09-17
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-15T11:12:06.269236Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticeFinance and Markets
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.identifier.report72593
okr.language.supporteden
okr.language.supportedes
okr.language.supportedfr
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/695601468313512012/pdf/725930v10SPANI0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Sp.pdfes
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/601701468171577489/pdf/725930v10FRENC0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Fr.pdffr
okr.peerreviewAcademic Peer Review
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographicalAfrica
okr.region.geographicalEast Asia
okr.region.geographicalEurope
okr.region.geographicalNorth Africa
okr.region.geographicalNorth America
okr.region.geographicalSouth Asia
okr.region.geographicalMiddle East
okr.region.geographicalEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.geographicalEurope, Middle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographicalSub-Saharan Africa
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Banks & Banking Reform
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Currencies and Exchange Rates
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.txturlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/695601468313512012/text/725930v10SPANI0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Sp.txtes
okr.txturlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/601701468171577489/text/725930v10FRENC0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Fr.txtfr
okr.unitDevelopment Prospects Group (DECPG)
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 5 of 7
Thumbnail Image
Name:
GEP-June-2012.pdf
Size:
10.14 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
English PDF
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
GEP5.txt
Size:
854.37 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
English Text
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
72593ArSum.pdf
Size:
581.73 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Arabic Summary
Download
Thumbnail Image
Name:
725930v10SPANI0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Sp.pdf
Size:
483.3 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
725930v10SPANI0mmary0GEP0Jun20120Sp.txt
Size:
18.58 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Global Economic Prospects
Arabic PDFs Available