Publication: Malawi - Country Economic Memorandum : Seizing Opportunities for Growth through Regional Integration and Trade - Summary of Main Finding and Recommendations
Loading...
Published
2010-01-31
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Malawi needs to focus on exports to maintain and broaden its current inspiring levels of economic growth. The focus of future policy should therefore be on reforms that improve competitiveness in global and regional markets. This does not require a fundamental shift in direction, but instead a rebalancing of policy and expenditures to support an outward-oriented development framework. Until the recent global financial crisis, domestic and regional trends were promising for Malawi: rapid economic growth, strong donor support, increases in foreign direct investment, real potential to upgrade regional infrastructure, and the gradual dismantling of barriers within the region through the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) free trade areas. Despite recent global developments, this report makes the case that, for a small landlocked economy like Malawi, integration into a dynamic and more open Southern Africa region will remain a key to building prosperity and improving livelihoods.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2010. Malawi - Country Economic Memorandum : Seizing Opportunities for Growth through Regional Integration and Trade - Summary of Main Finding and Recommendations. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2954 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Constraints to Growth in Malawi(2009-10-01)This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi s growth story, which directly increases the strength of the export multiplier. The most pressing constraint to growth in Malawi continues to be the regime of exchange rate management. Despite good progress, there is compelling evidence that the rate is still substantially overvalued. Furthermore, it is also likely that the inflow of foreign aid - in excess of 50 percent of exports -contributes to the overvaluation through its large component of recurrent expenditures.Publication Bangladesh Development Update, April 2015(Dhaka, 2015-04)This report highlights recent economic updates in Bangladesh as of April 2015. Economic growth in Bangladesh was gaining momentum in the first half of FY15. Capacity utilization improved and investments were showing some signs of recovery. This growth was also job-friendly. The 12-monthly-moving average inflation decelerated from 7.6 percent in February 2014 to 6.8 percent in February 2015. The resilience of the Bangladesh economy continues to be tested by faltering political stability, weak global markets, and structural constraints. These are inhibiting the economy s income growth as well as progress on shared prosperity. Despite the emergence of a $1.3 billion deficit in the current account in the first seven months of FY15, the surplus in the overall balance of payments has been sustained, leading to continued accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation. Reserves are at a comfortable level at over 6 months of imports of goods and services. Fiscal policy has remained consistent with macroeconomic stability. Tax revenue growth has been weaker than targeted while expenditure have also been short due as usual to an implementation shortfall. The projected recovery in global growth, particularly in the United States and the Euro Zone, and continued softness in international commodity prices, bode well for Bangladesh. The country will need to restore political stability and implement faster structural reforms to capitalize on these opportunities. The potential GDP growth rate is on a declining path due to declining labor force growth and stagnant productivity growth, as well as the rate of capital accumulation. Raising the low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) rate offers on opportunity to boost the economy s potential growth rate. Moving forward, the biggest challenge remains ensuring durable political stability. This is a precondition for accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.Publication Growth Diagnostics for a Resource-Rich Transition Economy : The Case of Mongolia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-11)This paper uses a growth diagnostics approach à la Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) to identify the most 'binding' constraints to private sector growth in Mongolia - a small, low-income, mineral-rich, transition economy. The approach of applying the HRV methodology is useful in those cases where a lack of data prevents us from estimating shadow prices to identify the most 'binding' constraint to growth. We find that although Mongolia is not liquidity constrained and has grown rapidly in recent years, economic growth has been narrowly based. Investment has flowed mainly into a small number of firms operating in mining and construction. The low level of private investment in sectors outside mining and construction has been due to low returns - a result of costly and unreliable transportation services; lengthy and complex transit procedures, including customs and trade rules; distortionary taxes; coordination failures, at both domestic and international levels; and growing corruption. Poor financial intermediation is also a problem that has kept the cost of finance high, although lower than in previous years. Alleviating these binding constraints will ensure that Mongolia maintains the path towards sustained, broad-based growth.Publication Regional Trade Policy Options for Tanzania : The Importance of Services Commitments(2010-11-01)Despite the growing importance of commitments to foreign investors in services in regional trade agreements, there are no applied general equilibrium models in the literature that assess these regional impacts. This paper develops a 52 sector applied general equilibrium model of Tanzania with foreign direct investment, and uses that model to assess Tanzania's regional and multilateral trade options. The model incorporates the features of the modern theory of international trade that has shown empirically that trade and foreign direct investment can increase productivity, and trade and foreign direct investment with technologically advanced countries is especially valuable for that purpose. To assess the sensitivity of the results to parameter values, the model is executed 30,000 times, and the results are reported as confidence intervals of the sample distributions. The analysis finds that a 50 percent preferential reduction in the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in all business services by Tanzania with respect to its African regional partners would be slightly beneficial for Tanzania. But wider liberalization, with larger partners or multilaterally, it will yield much larger gains due to providing access to a much wider set of service providers. Finally, the results show that the largest gains in services would be derived from reduction of regulatory barriers that are geographically non-discriminatory.Publication Petroleum Subsidies in Yemen : Leveraging Reform for Development(2011-02-01)Petroleum subsidy reform is increasingly seen as an opportunity for consolidating public finances and fostering sustainable economic development. Yemen, as the country with the lowest per capita income in the group of countries with a high level of energy subsidies, started to reduce subsidies in 2010 and is discussing further options for reform. The results of this paper support a comprehensive petroleum subsidy reform in Yemen. Economic growth is projected to accelerate between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points annually as a result of reform. Yet, the design of the reform is critically important, especially for the poor. Outcomes of alternative reform scenarios range from an increase in poverty of 2 to 6 percentage points. A promising strategy combines subsidy reduction with direct transfers of 13,800 to 19,700 Yemeni rials annually to the poorest 30 percent of households and enhanced public investments. Investments should focus on the utilities, transport, trade, and construction sectors to integrate economic spaces and create the platform for a restructuring of agricultural, industrial, and service value chains, which should encourage private sector led and job creating growth in the medium term.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Public entities around the world possess an enormous volume of assets and wealth, which includes land, buildings, historic sites, parks, and infrastructure networks, among many others. Good management of such assets is a catalyst for accelerating development and expanding services; poor asset management generates enormous losses, including lost opportunities to build wealth. Private enterprises increasingly use computerized systems to manage assets such as fleets and buildings. Many city leaders in developing countries, however, are unaware of asset management or feel they lack the time or money to undertake it. Managing County Assets and Liabilities in Kenya: Postdevolution Challenges and Responses can help them begin or maintain their efforts to manage assets sustainably. This book helps readers understand the basic concept of asset management; explains systems, tools, and procedures; and provides models and guidance. Kenya has achieved much since its 2013 devolution of governance and management to new counties. However, counties, which are the local governments in Kenya, are still working toward establishing systems and procedures, creating asset and liability registers, verifying and valuing assets, using assets strategically, and resolving disputes surrounding inherited assets and liabilities. This book provides glimpses into the Kenyan devolution process and asset transfer challenges, draws lessons, and explores options relevant to both Kenya and other nations. Ample studies discuss various aspects of municipal asset management, such as managing infrastructure, fixed assets, water services, building properties, roads, or fleets. This book is unique among asset management studies in three ways: it discusses all sorts of assets and liabilities and their interlinkages, exemplifies the close connection between financial results and asset management of municipalities, and reveals the political economy challenges in transferring assets and liabilities across public entities.Publication Fiscal Incidence Analysis for Kenya(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06-29)Kenya has made satisfactory progress in reducing poverty and inequality in recent years. Economic growth in Kenya between 2005-06 and 2015-16 averaged around 5.3 percent, exceeding the average growth of 4.9 percent observed for Sub-Saharan Africa. This robust economic growth resulted in a reduction in poverty, whether measured by the national or international poverty line. The proportion of the population living beneath the national poverty line fell from 46.8 percent in 2005-06 to 36.1 percent in 2015-16, showing a modest improvement in the living standards of the Kenyan population. Similarly, poverty under the international poverty line of US$ 1.90 a day declined from 43.6 percent in 2005-06 to 35.6 percent in 2015-16. At this level, poverty in Kenya is below the average in sub-Saharan Africa and is amongst the lowest in the East African Community (World Bank, 2018b). However, the proportion of the population living in poverty remains comparatively high in Kenya and the rate at which growth translated into poverty reduction was lower than elsewhere. At twice the average, Kenya’s poverty rate is still high for a lower-middle income country, a group that Kenya joined only in 2015. In addition, the Kenya’s growth elasticity of poverty reduction, the percentage reduction in the poverty rate associated with a one-percent increase in mean per capita income is only 0.57, lower than in Tanzania, Ghana, or Uganda (World Bank, 2018b). This leads to the obvious question of what can be done to make economic growth more pro-poor in Kenya. This study assesses the distributional consequences of Kenya’s system of taxes and transfers, covering 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending. The analysis of fiscal incidence and distributional consequences of Kenya’s tax and transfer system is an important input for designing pro-poor policies and potentially for influencing the rate at which economic growth translates into poverty reduction. In this study, direct taxes and transfers, indirect taxes (VAT and excise duties), as well as public health and education spending are assessed in terms of their distributional impacts. Overall, these taxes and transfers account for about 60 percent of revenue and between 25 and 30 percent of government spending.Publication Nigeria Development Update, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In 2020, Nigeria experienced its deepest recession in four decades, but growth resumed in the fourth quarter as pandemic restrictions were eased, oil prices recovered, and the authorities implemented policies to counter the economic shock. As a result, in 2020 the Nigerian economy experienced a smaller contraction (-1.8 percent) than had been projected when the pandemic began (-3.2 percent). As part of its response, the government carried out several long-delayed policy reforms, often against vocal opposition. Notably, the government (1) began to harmonize exchange rates; (2) began to eliminate gasoline subsidies; (3) started adjusting electricity tariffs to more cost-reflective levels; (4) cut nonessential spending and redirected resources to COVID-19 (coronavirus) responses at both the federal and the state levels; and (5) enhanced debt management and increased public-sector transparency, especially for oil and gas operations. By creating additional fiscal space and maximizing the impact of the government’s limited resources, these measures were critical in protecting the economy against a much deeper recession and in laying the foundation for earlier recovery. However, several critical reforms are as yet incomplete, which threatens Nigeria’s nascent recovery. In the baseline scenario, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2021. Despite the current favorable external environment, with oil prices recovering and growth in advanced economies, reform slippages would hinder the renewed economic expansion and undermine progress toward Nigeria’s development goals. In a risk scenario, in which the government fails to sustain recent macroeconomic and structural reforms, the pace of economic recovery would slow, and GDP growth couldbe just 1.1 percent in 2021.Publication Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02)Kenya adopted a new constitution and began the process of devolution in 2010, ceding many formerly national responsibilities to new county governments. As an institutional response to longstanding grievances, this radical restructuring of the Kenyan state had three continuing main objectives: decentralizing political power, public sector functions, and public finances; ensuring a more equitable distribution of resources among regions; and promoting more accountable, participatory, and responsive government at all levels. The first elections under the new constitution were held in 2013 and led to the establishment of 47 new county governments. Each county government is made up of a county executive, headed by an elected governor, and an elected County Assembly that legislates and provides oversight. Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery in Kenya takes stock of how devolution has affected the delivery of basic services to Kenyan citizens nine years after the “devolution train” left the station. Whereas devolution was driven by political reform, the ensuing institutions and systems were expected to deliver greater socioeconomic equity through devolved service delivery. Jointly coordinated by the government of Kenya and the World Bank, the Making Devolution Work for Service Delivery (MDWSD) study is the first major assessment of Kenya’s devolution reform. The study provides key messages about what is working, what is not working, and what could work better to enhance service delivery based on currently available data. It provides an independent assessment of service delivery performance in five sectors: agriculture, education, health, urban services, and water services. This assessment includes an in-depth review of the main pillars of devolved service delivery: accountability, human resource management, intergovernmental finance, politics, and public financial management. In addition to its findings for the present, the MDWSD study provides recommendations on how Kenya can improve its performance in each of these pivotal areas in the future.