Publication:
Understanding and Predicting Job Losses due to COVID-19: Empirical Evidence from Middle Income Countries

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorHatayama, Maho
dc.contributor.authorLi, Yiruo
dc.contributor.authorOsborne, Theresa
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-10T15:51:45Z
dc.date.available2022-02-10T15:51:45Z
dc.date.issued2022-02
dc.description.abstractThis paper utilizes firm survey data to understand which formal private sector jobs are most at risk from COVID-19 or similar future crises, based on empirical evidence from two middle-income economies. In particular, it estimates the importance for formal private sector job losses of various COVID-19 pandemic-related labor market shocks and mitigating factors, such as the closure of non-essential industries, workers’ ability to perform their jobs from home, infection risks to workers, customers’ infection risk, global demand shocks, input supply constraints, employers’ financial constraints, and government support, in determining the level and distribution of job losses. This provides an empirical identification of the main risk factors for job loss and a basis for predicting the level and distribution of these losses due to the crisis for permanent formal private sector (PFPS) jobs in core productive manufacturing and service sectors (captured by World Bank Enterprise Surveys) in Jordan and Georgia. Comparing the empirical findings across the two countries, the paper assesses the degree of commonality of these risk factors. Job losses are projected for different groups within the employed population prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 and compared with post-crisis labor force data. The results indicate that in these countries the level of job losses is predominantly due to a reduction in demand rather than a reduction in the supply of labor. Closures, global demand shocks, supply disruptions, and other unexplained demand-side shocks are significant determinants of jobs lost. The sensitivity of employment to closures, supply disruptions, and sales shocks was of similar magnitudes in both countries; however, variation in infection risk was a significant determinant of sales only in Georgia. At the same time, Georgian formal firms were better able to rebound their sales and hire back workers than formal firms in Jordan. Finally, the paper finds no evidence that firms with workers performing tasks that can be performed from home were better able to preserve jobs, given the dominant role of firm-level demand and supply chain shocks.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/348821644421042532/Understanding-and-Predicting-Job-Losses-due-to-COVID-19-Empirical-Evidence-from-Middle-Income-Countries
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9933
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36973
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9933
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectJOB LOSS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectFIRMS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectSURVEY
dc.titleUnderstanding and Predicting Job Losses due to COVID-19en
dc.title.subtitleEmpirical Evidence from Middle Income Countriesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleUnderstanding and Predicting Job Losses Due to COVID-19: Empirical Evidence from Middle Income Countries
okr.date.disclosure2022-02-09
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:10:34.689713Z
okr.date.lastmodified2022-02-09T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/348821644421042532/Understanding-and-Predicting-Job-Losses-due-to-COVID-19-Empirical-Evidence-from-Middle-Income-Countries
okr.guid348821644421042532
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9933
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088cd3c88_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33725373
okr.identifier.reportWPS9933
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/348821644421042532/pdf/Understanding-and-Predicting-Job-Losses-due-to-COVID-19-Empirical-Evidence-from-Middle-Income-Countries.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryGeorgia
okr.region.countryJordan
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Private Sector Economics
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Employment and Unemployment
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitSocial Protection and Jobs Global Practice (HSPJB)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Understanding-and-Predicting-Job-Losses-due-to-COVID-19-Empirical-Evidence-from-Middle-Income-Countries.pdf
Size:
1.33 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
Understanding-and-Predicting-Job-Losses-due-to-COVID-19-Empirical-Evidence-from-Middle-Income-Countries.txt
Size:
177.33 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers