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Machine Learning in International Trade Research: Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements

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dc.contributor.authorBreinlich, Holger
dc.contributor.authorCorradi, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Nadia
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.contributor.authorSantos Silva, J.M.C.
dc.contributor.authorZylkin, Tom
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-19T19:38:00Z
dc.date.available2021-04-19T19:38:00Z
dc.date.issued2021-04
dc.description.abstractModern trade agreements contain a large number of provisions besides tariff reductions, in areas as diverse as services trade, competition policy, trade-related investment measures, or public procurement. Existing research has struggled with overfitting and severe multicollinearity problems when trying to estimate the effects of these provisions on trade flows. This paper builds on recent developments in the machine learning and variable selection literature to propose novel data-driven methods for selecting the most important provisions and quantifying their impact on trade flows. The proposed methods have the advantage of not requiring ad hoc assumptions on how to aggregate individual provisions and offer improved selection accuracy over the standard lasso. The analysis finds that provisions related to technical barriers to trade, antidumping, trade facilitation, subsidies, and competition policy are associated with enhancing the trade-increasing effect of trade agreements.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/730781618338899906/Machine-Learning-in-International-Trade-Research-Evaluating-the-Impact-of-Trade-Agreements
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9629
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35451
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9629
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectDEEP TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectMACHINE LEARNING
dc.subjectLASSO
dc.titleMachine Learning in International Trade Researchen
dc.title.subtitleEvaluating the Impact of Trade Agreementsen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleMachine Learning in International Trade Research: Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements
okr.date.disclosure2021-04-13
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:28:14.727550Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/730781618338899906/Machine-Learning-in-International-Trade-Research-Evaluating-the-Impact-of-Trade-Agreements
okr.guid730781618338899906
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9629
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0884ccd5a_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum32994656
okr.identifier.reportWPS9629
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/730781618338899906/pdf/Machine-Learning-in-International-Trade-Research-Evaluating-the-Impact-of-Trade-Agreements.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined5937
okr.statistics.dr730781618338899906
okr.statistics.drstats3186
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::International Trade and Trade Rules
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Facilitation
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Liberalization
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Multilateral Issues
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Regional Integration
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group, Development Economics; and the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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