Publication:
Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies

dc.contributor.author Keefer, Philip
dc.date.accessioned 2012-06-04T17:52:44Z
dc.date.available 2012-06-04T17:52:44Z
dc.date.issued 2007-04
dc.description.abstract This paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these conclusions. en
dc.identifier http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7499620/insurgency-credible-commitment-autocracies-democracies
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7012
dc.language English
dc.publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseries Policy Research Working Paper; No. 4185
dc.rights CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder World Bank
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subject ARMED CONFLICT
dc.subject AUTOCRACY
dc.subject BARRIERS TO ENTRY
dc.subject CANDIDATES
dc.subject CITIZEN
dc.subject CITIZENS
dc.subject CIVIL WAR
dc.subject CIVIL WARS
dc.subject COMMUNISM
dc.subject COMPETITION
dc.subject COMPETITIVENESS
dc.subject CONFLICT COUNTRIES
dc.subject CONFLICT ­ COUNTRIES
dc.subject CONFLICTS
dc.subject DECISION MAKING
dc.subject DEGREES OF FREEDOM
dc.subject DEMOCRACIES
dc.subject DEMOCRACY
dc.subject DEMOCRACY SCORE
dc.subject DEMOCRATIC REGIMES
dc.subject DETERMINANT OF INCOME PER CAPITA
dc.subject DISLOYALTY
dc.subject ELECTIONS
dc.subject ELECTORATE
dc.subject EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subject ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subject ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION
dc.subject ETHNIC GROUPS
dc.subject EXPECTED VALUE
dc.subject EXPORTS
dc.subject FAMILY MEMBERS
dc.subject FAMILY TIES
dc.subject GDP
dc.subject GOVERNMENT CAPACITY
dc.subject HIGH RISK
dc.subject INCOME
dc.subject INCOME PER CAPITA
dc.subject MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT
dc.subject MILITARY SPENDING
dc.subject NATURAL ENDOWMENTS
dc.subject NATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subject NATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subject OPPONENTS
dc.subject PARLIAMENT
dc.subject PATRONAGE
dc.subject POLICY MAKING
dc.subject POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subject POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subject POLITICAL CONFLICT
dc.subject POLITICAL DECISION
dc.subject POLITICAL DECISION MAKING
dc.subject POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subject POLITICAL LEADERS
dc.subject POLITICAL PARTIES
dc.subject POLITICAL SYSTEMS
dc.subject POLITICAL VARIABLES
dc.subject POLITICIANS
dc.subject POPULAR SUPPORT
dc.subject POPULATION
dc.subject POPULATION SIZE
dc.subject POST-CONFLICT
dc.subject PRINT MEDIA
dc.subject PROGRESS
dc.subject PUBLIC GOOD
dc.subject PUBLIC INFORMATION
dc.subject PUBLIC POLICY
dc.subject PUBLIC SERVICES
dc.subject PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject PURCHASING POWER PARITY
dc.subject QUALITY OF EDUCATION
dc.subject REBEL MOVEMENTS
dc.subject REBELLION
dc.subject RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subject RELIGIOUS GROUPS
dc.subject RESPECT
dc.subject RICHER COUNTRIES
dc.subject RISK OF CONFLICT
dc.subject RULE OF LAW
dc.subject SECONDARY SCHOOL
dc.subject SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY
dc.subject SOCIAL CONDITIONS
dc.subject SOCIAL GROUP
dc.subject SOCIAL POLARIZATION
dc.subject SOCIAL WELFARE
dc.subject SOVEREIGNTY
dc.subject VOTERS
dc.subject WARS
dc.title Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies en
dspace.entity.type Publication
okr.crosscuttingsolutionarea Fragility, Conflict, and Violence
okr.doctype Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctype Publications & Research
okr.docurl http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7499620/insurgency-credible-commitment-autocracies-democracies
okr.globalpractice Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience
okr.globalpractice Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpractice Governance
okr.globalpractice Health, Nutrition, and Population
okr.identifier.doi 10.1596/1813-9450-4185
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum 000016406_20070329112306
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum 7499620
okr.identifier.report WPS4185
okr.language.supported en
okr.pdfurl http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/03/29/000016406_20070329112306/Rendered/PDF/wps4185.pdf en
okr.topic Economic Theory and Research
okr.topic Social Development :: Social Conflict and Violence
okr.topic Governance :: Parliamentary Government
okr.topic Governance :: Politics and Government
okr.topic Health, Nutrition and Population :: Population Policies
okr.topic Macroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unit Development Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume 1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication 26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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