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Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?

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dc.contributor.authorBarakat, Bilal
dc.contributor.authorUrdal, Henrik
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T19:13:37Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T19:13:37Z
dc.date.issued2009-11-01
dc.description.abstractMuch of the developing world has experienced a decline in mortality, while fertility often has remained high. This has produced youthful populations in many countries, generally referred to as "youth bulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youth bulges may be associated with increased risks of political violence and conflict. This paper addresses ways that education may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk of political violence, particularly in the context of large cohorts of young males. The authors use a new education dataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset is constructed using demographic back-projection techniques, and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries. The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young male population bulges are more likely to increase the risk of conflict in societies where male secondary education is low. The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youth populations is particularly strong in low and middle-income countries. This is especially challenging for Sub-Saharan Africa, the region facing the youngest age structure and the lowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitative studies generally find a strong relationship between indicators of development and conflict risk, the results suggest that poor countries do have some leverage over reducing conflict potential through increased educational opportunities for young people. There is further evidence that the interaction of large youth cohorts and low education levels may be mediated by structural economic factors. The study supports broad policy interventions in education by relaxing concerns about the consequences of rapid educational expansion.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091105103139
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5114
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4304
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5114
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCESS TO EDUCATION
dc.subjectADULT POPULATION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectARMED CONFLICT
dc.subjectBASIC EDUCATION
dc.subjectBOTH SEXES
dc.subjectCENSUSES
dc.subjectCENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectCIVIL CONFLICT
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCONTINUOUS EDUCATION
dc.subjectCURRICULA
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC PROGRESS
dc.subjectEDUCATION FOR ALL
dc.subjectEDUCATION VARIABLES
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectEDUCATIONAL PLANNING
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectENROLLMENT
dc.subjectFEMALE EDUCATION
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFERTILITY TRANSITION
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectGENDER DISPARITIES
dc.subjectGENDER DISPARITIES IN EDUCATION
dc.subjectGENOCIDE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMPORTANT POLICY
dc.subjectINFANT
dc.subjectINFANT MORTALITY
dc.subjectINFANT MORTALITY RATE
dc.subjectINFANT MORTALITY RATES
dc.subjectINTERVENTIONS
dc.subjectINVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLACK OF INFORMATION
dc.subjectLEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectLEVEL OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectLEVELS OF EDUCATION
dc.subjectLIVING CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMALE YOUTH
dc.subjectMANUALS
dc.subjectMIGRANTS
dc.subjectMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectNATIONAL EDUCATION
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOLD MALES
dc.subjectOLD MEN
dc.subjectPEACE
dc.subjectPERPETRATORS OF VIOLENCE
dc.subjectPOLICY FORMULATION
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOLITICAL CHANGE
dc.subjectPOLITICAL UNREST
dc.subjectPOPULATION ACTION
dc.subjectPOPULATION ACTION INTERNATIONAL
dc.subjectPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectPOPULATION DIVISION
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOPULATION MATTERS
dc.subjectPOPULATION SIZE
dc.subjectPRACTITIONERS
dc.subjectPRIMARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectPRIMARY ENROLLMENT
dc.subjectPRIMARY ENROLLMENT RATES
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOLING
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectRISK FACTORS
dc.subjectSECONDARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectSECONDARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectSECONDARY SCHOOLING
dc.subjectSEX
dc.subjectSOCIAL COHESION
dc.subjectSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSOCIAL RESEARCH
dc.subjectSOCIAL UNREST
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTERTIARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectTERTIARY LEVEL
dc.subjectTEXTBOOKS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNFPA
dc.subjectUNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectVIOLENCE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWARS
dc.subjectWORLD POPULATION
dc.subjectYOUNG MALE
dc.subjectYOUNG MALES
dc.subjectYOUNG MEN
dc.subjectYOUNG PEOPLE
dc.subjectYOUTH
dc.subjectYOUTH EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectYOUTH MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectYOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.titleBreaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?en
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleBreaking The Waves ? Does Education Mediate The Relationship Between Youth Bulges And Political Violence ?
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:00:38.220312Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091105103139
okr.globalpracticeEducation
okr.globalpracticeGovernance
okr.globalpracticeHealth, Nutrition, and Population
okr.guid403881468165872383
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-5114
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20091105103139
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum11312224
okr.identifier.reportWPS5114
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/11/05/000158349_20091105103139/Rendered/PDF/WPS5114.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.region.administrativeThe World Region
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population Policies
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Adolescent Health
okr.topicGovernance::Youth and Governance
okr.topicEducation::Access & Equity in Basic Education
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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