Publication:
Economic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply

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dc.contributor.authorFukase, Emiko
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Will
dc.date.accessioned2017-12-01T17:45:29Z
dc.date.available2017-12-01T17:45:29Z
dc.date.issued2017-11
dc.description.abstractIn projecting global food demand to 2050, much attention has been given to rising demand due to the projected population increase from the current 7.4 billion to more than 9 billion. An increasingly important source of the increase in food demand is per capita demand growth induced by rising income per person. Since the proportion of income spending on food decreases as incomes rise, growth in global food demand will be greater if incomes grow faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. Such a pattern of income convergence has become established in recent years, making it important to assess the implications for food demand and supply. Using a resource-based measure of food that accounts for the much higher production costs associated with dietary upgrading, this paper concludes that per capita demand growth is likely to be a more important driver of food demand than population growth between now and 2050. Using the middle-ground International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections to 2050, which assume continued income convergence, the paper finds that the increase in food demand (102 percent) would be roughly a third greater than without convergence (78 percent). Since the impact of convergence on the supply side is much more muted, convergence puts upward pressure on world food prices, partially offsetting a baseline trend toward falling world food prices to 2050.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/519861511794565022/Economic-growth-convergence-and-world-food-demand-and-supply
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8257
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/28918
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 8257
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCEREAL EQUIVALENTS
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectCONVERGENCE
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM
dc.subjectFOOD DEMAND
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.titleEconomic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supplyen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33877 Journal Article
okr.crossref.titleEconomic Growth, Convergence, and World Food Demand and Supply
okr.date.disclosure2017-11-27
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/519861511794565022/Economic-growth-convergence-and-world-food-demand-and-supply
okr.guid519861511794565022
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8257
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b08538f945_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum28648451
okr.identifier.reportWPS8257
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/519861511794565022/pdf/WPS8257.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined8590
okr.statistics.dr519861511794565022
okr.statistics.drstats6664
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Markets
okr.topicAgriculture::Food Security
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.unitAgriculture and Rural Development Team, Development Research Group
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd6af18a6-3a50-5065-99ee-20853402f262
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryd6af18a6-3a50-5065-99ee-20853402f262
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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