Publication: East Asia Update, November 2005 : Countering Global Shocks
Date
2005-11
ISSN
Published
2005-11
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
Growth in the Emerging East Asia region
is expected to reach a little over 6 percent in 2005, down
modestly from the exceptionally strong 7.2 percent pace of
2004. One of the clearly most fortunate developments of the
last two years is the unexpectedly limited effect on
economic growth of the more than doubling of crude oil
prices. Several governments have had the political
confidence and credibility with the public to implement
politically sensitive cuts in or removal of subsidies on
fuel products, allowing fuel users to respond more
effectively to signals from world markets. Central banks in
the region have also been tightening monetary policy to
prevent the rise in oil prices and headline inflation from
becoming embedded in higher trend rates of core price and
wage inflation. While the tightening cycle may tend to
moderate the cyclical recovery in domestic demand in the
region in the near term, it will, by helping ensure moderate
inflation and macroeconomic stability, also help promote
more sustainable growth in the medium term. International
trade has long been a great source of productivity gains and
growth in East Asia. Last year's over 10 percent gain
in world trade was paced by a 15-20 percent gain in East
Asian real exports and imports. The Special Focus in this
Update on What can East Asia Expect from the Doha
Development Round? looks in more detail at the issues at
stake for the region. Last but very far from least is the
risk from avian influenza, which, if it expands to a
widespread human influenza, could exact a dreadful toll in
human life and economic losses both in Asia and around the
world. The threat and the urgent policy responses that are
needed are discussed later in this report.
Citation
“World Bank. 2005. East Asia Update, November 2005 : Countering Global Shocks. East Asia Update;November 2005. © Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/562360cc-4bd2-5349-a133-9c92d7e4ab93 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”