Publication:
Government Response to Oil Price Volatility : Experience of 49 Developing Countries

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.35 MB)
2,071 downloads
English Text (279.93 KB)
495 downloads
Published
2009-07
ISSN
Date
2014-05-09
Editor(s)
Abstract
Oil prices rose from 2004 to historic highs in mid-2008, only to fall precipitously in the last four months of 2008 and lose all the gains of the preceding four and a half years. The steep price increase from January 2007 to July 2008 was challenging for all economies. While the sharp drop in prices since August 2008 has been welcome news for consumers, the cause of it, the global financial crisis, is not. Moreover, currency depreciation against the dollar in many developing countries has meant that, in local currency units, petroleum product prices have not fallen as sharply as in U.S. dollars. This report examines the policy responses of 49 developing country governments to world oil price movements in the last three years. The sample includes 16 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 15 in Asia, 10 in Latin America, and 8 in the Middle East and North Africa. The report updates a companion 2006 publication on coping with higher oil prices and builds upon two other publications: one on oil price volatility and another on the degree of pass-through of world oil price increases between January 2004 and August 2009. As with all other publications in this series, this report examines issues related to oil price levels and volatility in the downstream petroleum sector and other sectors where oil is an important input, such as transport, fisheries, and agriculture, from the point of view of consumers. It does not consider macro-level policies (such as monetary or exchange rate policy) or the impact of oil price changes on the macroeconomic performance of countries, nor does it discuss management of the windfall income by large oil exporters and the long-term economic consequences of revenue management.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Kojima, Masami. 2009. Government Response to Oil Price Volatility : Experience of 49 Developing Countries. Extractive industries and development series;no. 10. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18234 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Emerging Players in Global Mining
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06) Humphreys, David
    Companies from the emerging economies are a growing feature of the global mining industry. This document looks at who these companies are and the factors behind their growth. The contribution of the emerging economies to the global supply of minerals since 2000 is striking. With their growth in production exceeding that of the advanced economies in almost every commodity, the share of these countries in global mineral production mounted steadily. Several factors have combined to provide a boost to the role and fortunes of emerging economy companies in mining over recent years. Five of the most important are: (i) market liberalization and privatization of state-owned companies; (ii) privileged access of local companies to significant and underdeveloped local resources; (iii) strong financial positions due to the mining boom of 2003-2008; (iv) drive for geographic and commodity diversification, at times with tacit support of respective home governments; and (v) strategic expansion, usually to ensure raw material supplies for their metallurgical operations. The role of the emerging economy countries, and of companies based in these countries, is going to become increasingly important to the minerals industry in coming years.
  • Publication
    Changes in CO2 Emissions from Energy Use : A Multicountry Decomposition Analysis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-10) Kojima, Masami; Bacon, Robert
    The continued growth of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their likely adverse effects on global warming are focusing debate on the contribution of various countries to total emissions and the comparability of efforts across countries in mitigating these emissions. This paper examines recent trends in CO2 emissions across countries at different levels of development and asks what has been contributing to the growth of emissions as well as to their moderation. The paper applies a decomposition analysis, an accounting methodology based on a log mean Divisia index, to analyze the change in CO2 emissions over a decade.
  • Publication
    Mainstreaming Gender into Extractive Industries Projects : Guidance Note for Task Team Leaders
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08) Eftimie, Adriana; Heller, Katherine; Strongman, John
    Extractive industries (EI) can bring many positive development impacts to the communities involved, but also have the potential to create or exacerbate vulnerabilities within these communities. Benefits and risks are often evaluated and measured at the community level, with little examination of the different impacts on men and women. In fact, evidence suggests that a gender bias exists in the distribution of risks and benefits in EI projects: benefits accrue to men in the form of employment and compensation, while the costs, such as family and social disruption, and environmental degradation, fall most heavily on women. Despite the ample evidence of gender bias, and its implications, in EI, there is significant scope for increasing the gender focus of most EI projects in the World Bank. Analyzing and adapting projects to local gender issues can help to mitigate the risks created by EI, and amplify the potential benefits to both men and women, leading to increased profitability and more sustainable development impacts. Furthermore, understanding and adapting projects to improve gender sensitivity is essential to realizing the Bank's stated commitment to both mainstreaming gender and to the third Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of gender equality and empowerment of women. The following guidelines briefly outline some of the ways that EI can impact men and women differently and the associated development implications, and provide step by step suggestions for how to understand and integrate gender issues into World Bank Group EI project design.
  • Publication
    Gender Dimensions of the Extractive Industries : Mining for Equity
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08) Eftimi, Adriana; Heller, Katherine; Strongman, John
    Extractive industries (EI) impacts can be positive and negative, spanning economic, social, and environmental issues. Oil, gas, and mining projects may create jobs, but may also consume farming land for their use, changing livelihoods and limiting access to water, food, and firewood. Water sources may become polluted, but new roads may be built and communities may become electrified. Markets may boom, but prices may rise steeply. Given male and female relationships to each other, to the economy, to the land, and to their communities, men and women have very different experiences of these EI impacts, and evidence increasingly demonstrates that in general women are more vulnerable to the risks, with little access to the benefits. This publication presents how and why men and women are differently impacted by EI, exploring what the implications are for business and development, and providing policy and action suggestions for how to mitigate negative impacts and amplify positive ones and how to monitor and improve results. The publication focuses primarily on larger scale commercial operations but also considers some of the issues relating to artisan and small-scale mining (ASM). The report is addressed to the stakeholders in extractive industries, i.e., oil, gas, and mining development and operations community members and leaders; government officials; and managers and staff of EI companies.
  • Publication
    Democratic Republic of Congo : Growth with Governance in the Mining Sector
    (Washington, DC, 2008-05) World Bank
    This study examines the mining sector's potential to contribute to economic growth with governance in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In the past, mining has been the main engine of the Congo economy. But the revenues and other benefit streams generated by the sector over the years have not been used in a wise or sustainable fashion, largely due to key problems with sector governance. During the past ten years of civil war and conflict, flagship industrial mining declined substantially, and informal and artisanal mining expanded significantly. Now that peace has returned to most of the country and a new democratically elected Government is in place, the potential for the mining sector to contribute to economic growth is excellent. However, achieving growth with governance depends on three principal internal and external factors. The first of these, international commodity prices, is largely out of the Government's control. The second factor, political stability, is clearly critical to growth of the sector; however, a detailed discussion of this factor is outside the scope of this study. The third factor, rent-seeking culture, is at the heart of the challenge that the Government must overcome to ensure sustained sector growth with good governance. The probable future decline and fluctuation of commodity prices has several implications for the mining sector in DRC. First, the amount of investment funding available for minerals exploration and investment falls or rises in tandem with the commodity prices. During the first quarter of 2008 there has already been a significant fall-off in the amount of funding for smaller companies in the international exchanges, due in part to the financial turbulence in the markets. This fall-off in investment funding could be exacerbated further by a significant downturn in commodities prices. Second, producing companies will generate lower revenues, and the government will have a consequent decline in fiscal receipts. Third, companies will face pressure to maximize their economies of scale, generally by increasing through-put in order to meet fixed costs. At the same time, because of lower sales revenues, companies will be forced to reduce operating costs, often by cutting staff and social services. Fourth, lower commodity prices will have a direct effect on the artisanal producers of mineral commodities, whose day-to-day dependence on the amounts earned in the mines renders them highly vulnerable to fluctuations.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Moving Out of Poverty : Volume 1. Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives on Mobility
    (Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, 2007) Petesch, Patti; Narayan, Deepa
    This volume brings together multidisciplinary perspectives on poor people's mobility, a dynamic approach that hopefully will add to the reader's understanding of how and why people move into and out of poverty. The chapters draw on the latest longitudinal micro data to present a moving picture of poverty that is rather different from what one can see in single snapshots, the staple of traditional poverty analysis. The book is also important because the contributors' distinct disciplinary perspectives demonstrate clearly why it is critical to draw on diverse information to improve the reader's understanding about how to reduce poverty. The economic findings reinforce what has been known for some time: fast economic growth underpins poverty reduction, but the speed of declines in poverty is greatly affected by social and political factors. The economic panels also show that the people mired in chronic poverty around the world are actually fewer in number than the people moving in and out of poverty. Static studies do not capture this dynamic quality of poverty and vulnerability. Of particular interest are the chapters clarifying interactions between the local social, political, and economic factors that underlie persistent poverty, vulnerability, and inequality. They point to the need to draw from different disciplines as we turn to the task of reaching the bottom poor trapped in poverty and those churning in and out of poverty.
  • Publication
    Guide to the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool
    (Washington, DC, 2008-02-05) World Bank
    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance and supplemental information to assist with country assessments of debt management performance, using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The DeMPA is a methodology used for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of 15 performance indicators spanning the full range of government Debt Management (DeM) functions. It is based on the principles set out in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank guidelines for public debt management, initially published in 2001 and updated in 2003. It is modeled after the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework for performance measurement of public financial management. The DeMPA has been designed to be a user-friendly tool to undertake an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses in government DeM practices. This guide provides additional background and supporting information so that a no specialist in the area of debt management may undertake a country assessment effectively. The guide can be used by assessors in preparing for and undertaking an assessment. It is particularly useful for understanding the rationale for the inclusion of the indicators, the scoring methodology, and the list of supporting documents or evidence required, and the questions that could be asked for the assessment.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.