Publication: Scaling up Social Assistance Where Data is Scarce: Opportunities and Limits of Novel Data and AI
Loading...
Date
2024-05-15
ISSN
Published
2024-05-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
During the recent Covid-19 shock (2020/21), most countries used cash transfers to protect the livelihoods of those affected by the pandemic or by restrictions on mobility or economic activities, including the poor and vulnerable. While a large majority of countries mobilized existing programs and/or administrative databases to expand support to new beneficiaries, countries without such programs or databases were severely limited in their capacity to respond. Leveraging the Covid-19 shock as an opportunity to leapfrog and innovate, various low-income countries used new sources of data and computational methods to rapidly develop -level welfare-targeted programs. This paper reviews both crisis-time programs and regular social protection operations to distill lessons that could be applicable for both contexts. It examines three programs from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Togo, and Nigeria that used geospatial and mobile phone usage data and/or artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning methods to estimate the welfare of applicants for individual-level welfare targeting and deliver emergency cash transfers in response to the pandemic. Additionally, it reviews two post-pandemic programs, in Lomé, Togo and in rural Lilongwe, Malawi, that incorporated those innovations into the more traditional delivery infrastructure and expanded their monitoring and evaluation framework. The rationale, key achievements, and main challenges of the various approaches are considered, and cases from other countries, as well as innovations beyond targeting, are taken into account. The paper concludes with policy recommendations and promising research topics to inform the discourse on leveraging novel data sources and estimation methods for improved social assistance in and beyond emergency settings.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Okamura, Yuko; Ohlenburg, Tim; Tesliuc, Emil. 2024. Scaling up Social Assistance Where Data is Scarce: Opportunities and Limits of Novel Data and AI. Social Protection and Jobs Discussion Papers; 2402. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41548 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Scaling Up Social Assistance Where Data is Scarce - Opportunities and Limits of Novel Data and AI(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-16)During the recent Covid-19 shock (2020/21), most countries used cash transfers to protect the livelihoods of those affected by the pandemic or by restrictions on mobility or economic activities, including the poor and vulnerable. While a large majority of countries mobilized existing programs and/or administrative databases to expand support to new beneficiaries, countries without such programs or databases were severely limited in their capacity to respond. Leveraging the Covid-19 shock as an opportunity to leapfrog and innovate, various low-income countries used new sources of data and computational methods to rapidly develop -level welfare-targeted programs. This paper reviews both crisis-time programs and regular social protection operations to distill lessons that could be applicable for both contexts. It examines three programs from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Togo, and Nigeria that used geospatial and mobile phone usage data and/or artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning methods to estimate the welfare of applicants for individual-level welfare targeting and deliver emergency cash transfers in response to the pandemic. Additionally, it reviews two post-pandemic programs, in Lome, Togo and in rural Lilongwe, Malawi, that incorporated those innovations into the more traditional delivery infrastructure and expanded their monitoring and evaluation framework. The rationale, key achievements, and main challenges of the various approaches are considered, and cases from other countries, as well as innovations beyond targeting, are taken into account. The paper concludes with policy recommendations and promising research topics to inform the discourse on leveraging novel data sources and estimation methods for improved social assistance in and beyond emergency settings.Publication Guiding Social Protection Targeting Through Satellite Data in São Tomé and Príncipe(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10)Social safety net programs focus on a subset of the population, usually the poorest and most vulnerable. However, in most developing countries there is no administrative data on relative wealth of the population to support the selection process of the potential beneficiaries of the social safety net programs. Hence, selection into programs is often multi-methodological approached and starts with geographical targeting for the selection of program implementation areas. To facilitate this stage of the targeting process in São Tomé and Príncipe, this working paper develops High Resolution Satellite Imagery (HRSI) poverty maps, providing both estimates of poverty incidence and program eligibility at a highly detailed resolution (110 m x 110 m). Furthermore, the analysis combines poverty incidence and population density to enable the geographical targeting process. This working paper shows that HRSI poverty maps can be used as key operational tools to facilitate the decision-making process of the geographical targeting and efficiently identify entry points for rapidly expanding social safety net programs. Unlike HRSI poverty maps based on census data, poverty maps based on satellite data and machine learning can be updated frequently at low cost supporting more adaptive social protection programs.Publication Wake-Up Call for Social Assistance? An Unfinished Mission to Reach the Poor and Beyond(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-09)This paper examines the current state of play and trends in social assistance in terms of spending, coverage, incidence, benefit size, and poverty reduction impacts using administrative data and household survey data from about 70 countries worldwide. This paper is the fourth edition of the State of Social Safety Nets Report, following the publications in 2018, 2015, and 2014. It also serves as a background paper for the first edition of the State of Social Protection Report 2025: The 2-Billion-Person Challenge. As a major driver and component of social protection, social assistance has made considerable progress in expanding its coverage over the past decade. However, the work is still unfinished, as is evident in the persistent gaps in coverage and financing, particularly in low-income countries and those affected by fragility, conflict, and violence, where the need for support is greater. As a result, the adequacy of benefits remains low, undermining the impacts of social assistance in reducing poverty. The paper highlights potential opportunities and priorities for further investment to address these challenges and progressively expand the effectiveness of social assistance which can better support not only the poor but also broader populations in the face of shocks. For example, these include leveraging new technologies, strengthening referrals to other programs, and reforming fiscal policies. These investments are relevant and critical to make adaptive and integrated social protection systems, covering wider social protection pillars – including social insurance, and labor market and employment programs – and to ensure adequate social protection support both during normal and crisis periods.Publication Some Small Countries Do It Better : Rapid Growth and Its Causes in Singapore, Finland, and Ireland(World Bank, 2012)This book is an outcome of a series of study visits to Singapore for African policy makers initiated by Jee-Peng Tan in 2005 with support from Tommy Koh in Singapore and Birger Fredriksen, Yaw Ansu, and Dzingai Mutumbuka at the World Bank. Starting in the 1960s-earlier if Japan is included-a number of East Asian economies began achieving growth rates well above the average and were able to maintain that pace until nearly the end of the 1990s. Countries, large and small, have struggled to imitate the industrial prowess of the East Asian pacesetters and to exploit the opportunities presented by globalization to expand exports. But approximating the East Asian benchmarks has proven difficult, and growth accelerations have tended to be remarkably transient.Publication Reducing Error, Fraud and Corruption (EFC) in Social Protection Programs(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-01)Social Protection (SP) and Social Safety Net (SSN) programs channel a large amount of public resources, it is important to make sure that these reach the intended beneficiaries. Error, fraud, or corruption (EFC) reduces the economic efficiency of these interventions by decreasing the amount of money that goes to the intended beneficiaries, and erodes the political support for the program. While no program is immune to EFC, evidence from developed countries demonstrates that such leakage can be brought to negligible levels. In five Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (UK, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and USA) this fraction is between 2-5 percent for the SP sector as a whole. For SSN programs, which use more complex eligibility criteria and hence are more prone to EFC, this fraction is 10 percent. To achieve these results, programs have implemented a number of measures reviewed in this note. In contrast, efforts to combat or even measure EFC are quite rare in developing countries, although some programs are plagued by it.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Education, Social Norms, and the Marriage Penalty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16)A growing literature attributes gender inequality in labor market outcomes in part to the reduction in female labor supply after childbirth, the child penalty. However, if social norms constrain married women’s activities outside the home, then marriage can independently reduce employment, even in the absence childbearing. Given the correlation in timing between childbirth and marriage, conventional estimates of child penalties will conflate these two effects. The paper studies the marriage penalty in South Asia, a context featuring conservative gender norms and low female labor force participation. The study introduces a split-sample, pseudo-panel approach that allows for the separation of marriage and child penalties even in the absence of individual-level panel data. Marriage reduces women’s labor force participation in South Asia by 12 percentage points, whereas the marginal penalty of childbearing is small. Consistent with the central roles of both opportunity costs and social norms, the marriage penalty is smaller among cohorts with higher education and less conservative gender attitudes.