Publication:
When Aggregation Misleads: Bias in Unit-Level Small Area Estimates of Poverty with Aggregate Data

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dc.contributor.authorCorral, Paul
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-01T21:15:12Z
dc.date.available2025-05-01T21:15:12Z
dc.date.issued2025-05-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper explores why small area poverty estimates from models at the household level that only use aggregate data as covariates, exhibit systematic bias. The analysis demonstrates that this bias stems from the model’s inability to capture the complete between-household variation in welfare, as they rely solely on covariates aggregated at geographic levels. Through model-based simulations, the paper shows that the bias in these models is minimized when the empirical variability of simulated welfare based on the model is closest to the true empirical variance of welfare at the area level. This finding also has implications for bias in unit-level models.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099732405012542780
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-11110
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/43150
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPublic Research Working Paper; 11110
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectSMALL AREA ESTIMATION
dc.subjectPOVERTY MAPPING
dc.subjectSATELLITE IMAGERY
dc.subjectCENSUS
dc.subjectOFFICIAL STATISTICS
dc.titleWhen Aggregation Misleadsen
dc.title.subtitleBias in Unit-Level Small Area Estimates of Poverty with Aggregate Dataen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2025-05-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-03T02:30:22.682068Z
okr.date.lastmodified2025-05-01T20:05:11Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099732405012542780
okr.guid099732405012542780
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-489bfe37-9160-41f1-8a2c-947c673ef62c
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11110
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum40010348
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum40010348
okr.identifier.reportWPS11110
okr.import.id7273
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttps://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099732405012542780/pdf/IDU-489bfe37-9160-41f1-8a2c-947c673ef62c.pdfen
okr.region.geographicalWorld
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Modeling and Statistics
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Econometrics
okr.unitEFI-EAP-POV-Poverty and Equity (EEAPV)
relation.isAuthorOfPublication562ed170-5271-5853-9c3c-a3ad9e16e176
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery562ed170-5271-5853-9c3c-a3ad9e16e176
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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