Publication:
AI for Risk-Based Supervision: Another Nice to Have Tool or a Game-Changer

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.88 MB)
509 downloads
English Text (129.03 KB)
18 downloads
Date
2025-02-27
ISSN
Published
2025-02-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Regardless of the individual perspectives on Artificial Intelligence (AI), it can transform the personal and professional lives at an unprecedented pace. It will also impact one of the most regulated and supervised industries in the world - the financial sector. Risk-based supervision (RBS) has been the gold standard for financial sector supervision over the past two decades, promising to aid supervisors in fulfilling their extensive and constantly growing responsibilities with limited resources. The remarkable advancement of AI in recent years, both in terms of performance and accessibility, promises to revolutionize numerous industries, including the financial sector. The benefits of AI for financial sector supervision extend beyond the automation of some manual activities. Moreover, AI can enable supervisors to undertake processes that were previously considered too time-consuming or and impossible to perform at the previous stage of technological development. Recognizing that the financial sector and its regulatory bodies are inevitably part of this ongoing evolution, the authors set out in this paper to examine the tangible impact of AI on the financial sector, with a particular focus on the supervisory perspective and the transition to an effective RBS regime. The authors also attempted to forecast the medium- and long-term implications of AI on the roles and responsibilities of the financial sector supervisor. This exploration seeks to enhance our understanding of how AI is influencing the financial landscape and its implications for future regulatory practices.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Dohotaru, Matei; Prisacaru, Marin; Shin, Ji Ho; Palta, Yasemin. 2025. AI for Risk-Based Supervision: Another Nice to Have Tool or a Game-Changer. Prosperity Insight Series. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42874 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds in Australia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02) Thompson, Graeme
    This paper examines the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in Australia. The large number of pension funds has meant that since the inception of pension fund supervision in the early 1990's the regulator has sought to identify high risk funds and focus its attention on these funds. However, the regulator developed a more sophisticated risk-rating model, known as PAIRS/SOARS, in 1992 in order to apply a more disciplined and consistent ratings methodology. Four reasons are given for the move towards more sophisticated risk-based supervision: 1) creation of an integrated supervisor which allowed the use of techniques used in banking and insurance to be adopted for pension fund; 2) the need to better use available supervisory resources; 3) several pension fund failures; and 4) concerns about industry weaknesses. Supervisory techniques used particularly in the banking industry, such as universal licensing, 'fit and proper' assessment, and risk management requirements were adopted for the pension sector between 2004 and 2006. The paper provides an outline of the PAIRS/SOARS risk-rating model which was also adopted. It observes that the approach provides an analytical discipline to risk assessment, strengthens the link between risk assessment and supervisory response, and allows better targeting of supervisory resources.
  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Institutions in Denmark
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-02) van Dam, Rein; Andersen, Erik Brink
    This paper examines the move towards risk-based supervision of pension institutions in Denmark. Although Denmark has not adopted a comprehensive model to assess risk it has developed a number of building blocks which it uses for risk-based assessment. The motivations for improving risk assessment include a desire to identify emerging problems, and concerns about the solvency of pension institutions. In Denmark there is extensive use of guaranteed minimum returns in both the accumulation and payout phases which create substantial obligations on pension institutions, and focus attention on the integrity and solvency of the institutions which provide them. In conjunction with freeing up investment restrictions and moving towards market valuation of assets, the supervisor has introduced a 'traffic light' stress test model which calculates the effect of several market scenarios - the red test which is the more plausible and the yellow test which is possible but less likely. In addition to the use of the traffic light system, there has been a growing emphasis on the adequacy of internal risk control systems and greater reliance on market discipline. Pension institutions have sought to reduce their exposure to market volatility by better matching of assets and liabilities. There is a much better understanding of the risks inherent in the pension institutions' portfolios, and there has been a substantial increase in the use of hedging instruments.
  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds : A Review of International Experience and Preliminary Assessment of the First Outcomes
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-01) Brunner, Gregory; Hinz, Richard; Rocha, Roberto
    This paper provides a review of the design and experience of risk-based pension fund supervision in several countries that have been leaders in the development of these methods. The utilization of risk-based methods originates primarily in the supervision of banks. In recent years it has increasingly been extended to other types of financial intermediaries including pension funds and insurers. The trend toward risk-based supervision of pensions is closely associated with movement toward the integration of pension supervision with that of banking and other financial services into a single national authority. Although similar in concept to the techniques developed in banking, the application to pension funds has required modifications, particularly for defined contribution funds that transfer investment risk to fund members. The countries examined provide a range of experiences that illustrate both the diversity of pension systems and approaches to risk-based supervision, but also a commonality of the focus on sound risk management and effective supervisory outcomes. The paper provides a description of pension supervision in Australia, Denmark, Mexico and the Netherlands, and an initial evaluation of the results achieved in relation to the underlying objectives.
  • Publication
    Risk-based Supervision of Pension Funds : Emerging Practices and Challenges
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Brunner, Greg; Hinz, Richard; Rocha, Roberto
    Risk-based supervision of pension funds grew out of a project that was jointly conducted by the World Bank and the International Organization of Pension Supervisors (IOPS). The project was initiated in response to the increasing interest in the development of innovative approaches to pension supervision from the member countries of both institutions. The volume provides an initial assessment of the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in four countries that have been pioneering the development of risk-based supervision methods in various forms. The volume is comprised of a summary chapter and in-depth studies of the experience in four individual countries-Australia, Denmark, Mexico, and Netherlands. These four country studies were prepared by experts familiar with the systems in each of the countries. The studies have been edited by World Bank staff to ensure a consistent approach to the analysis of the various countries' systems. Models of risk-based supervision demonstrate the benefits of moving away from an approach based on strict compliance, specific rules, and quantitative controls toward an approach that puts more emphasis on the identification and management of relevant risks. A risk-based approach encourages supervised entities to place a greater focus on risk management in their daily operations, which promotes a stronger pension system and more effective outcomes for the members of the system. It is also expected that moving to a risk-based approach to supervision will enhance the ability of supervisors to focus resources on areas of highest risk, which will, over time, result in a more efficient use of supervisory resources.
  • Publication
    Brazil : Risk-based Supervision of Brazilian Closed Pension Funds
    (Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank
    This report provides a comprehensive description of the full process for supporting the new supervisory authority for closed pension funds in Brazil, The National Superintendence for Pension Funds, supervisor of the closed pension fund system in Brazil, or PREVIC, in particular through the development of a revised approach to the risk-based supervision of closed pension funds. This report documents the first-funded World Bank project which, in conjunction with PREVIC, the supervisor of the closed pension fund system in Brazil (established in January 2010), has sought to provide guidance to implement a risk based supervision (RBS) appropriate to Brazilian environment, drawing on international experience. The project ran from January 2010 to March 2012. The key outputs of the project were specified as: i) an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current supervisory benchmarking against best practices in RBS around the world; ii) a roadmap for the implementation of RBS under the circumstances prevailing in the industry; iii) proposals for regulations on selected critical elements for the implementation of RBS framework; and iv) training to supervisors and senior executives of closed pension funds about the main challenges of introducing RBS.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-29) World Bank
    Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for metals and agricultural raw materials. The possibility of escalating conflict in the Middle East represents a substantial near-term upside risk to energy prices, with potential knock-on consequences for other commodities. However, over the forecast horizon, longer-term dynamics—including decelerating global oil demand, diversifying oil production, and ample oil supply capacity—suggest sizable downside risks to oil prices, especially if OPEC+ unwinds its latest production cuts. There are also dual risks to industrial commodity demand stemming from economic activity. On the one hand, concerted stimulus in China and above-trend growth in the United States could push commodity prices higher. On the other, weaker-than-anticipated global industrial activity could dampen them. Following several overlapping global shocks in the early 2020s, which drove parallel swings in commodity prices, commodity markets appear to be departing from a period of tight synchronization. A Special Focus analyzes commodity price synchronization over time and considers the relative importance across commodity cycles of a wide range of demand and supply shocks, including global demand shocks and shocks specific to different commodity markets. It concludes that, while supply shocks were the dominant commodity price driver in the early 2000s and around the global financial crisis, post-pandemic price movements have been more substantially shaped by commodity-specific shocks, such as those related to conflicts.
  • Publication
    Services Unbound
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-09) World Bank
    Services are a new force for innovation, trade, and growth in East Asia and Pacific. The dramatic diffusion of digital technologies and partial policy reforms in services--from finance, communication, and transport to retail, health, and education--is transforming these economies. The result is higher productivity and changing jobs in the services sector, as well as in the manufacturing sectors that use these services. A region that has thrived through openness to trade and investment in manufacturing still maintains innovation-inhibiting barriers to entry and competition in key services sectors. 'Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific' makes the case for deeper domestic reforms and greater international cooperation to unleash a virtuous cycle of increased economic opportunity and enhanced human capacity that would power development in the region.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11) World Bank
    After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2022
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-11) World Bank
    The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends over the forecast horizon. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past. Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.