Publication:
AI for Risk-Based Supervision: Another Nice to Have Tool or a Game-Changer

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.88 MB)
612 downloads
English Text (129.03 KB)
18 downloads
Date
2025-02-27
ISSN
Published
2025-02-27
Editor(s)
Abstract
Regardless of the individual perspectives on Artificial Intelligence (AI), it can transform the personal and professional lives at an unprecedented pace. It will also impact one of the most regulated and supervised industries in the world - the financial sector. Risk-based supervision (RBS) has been the gold standard for financial sector supervision over the past two decades, promising to aid supervisors in fulfilling their extensive and constantly growing responsibilities with limited resources. The remarkable advancement of AI in recent years, both in terms of performance and accessibility, promises to revolutionize numerous industries, including the financial sector. The benefits of AI for financial sector supervision extend beyond the automation of some manual activities. Moreover, AI can enable supervisors to undertake processes that were previously considered too time-consuming or and impossible to perform at the previous stage of technological development. Recognizing that the financial sector and its regulatory bodies are inevitably part of this ongoing evolution, the authors set out in this paper to examine the tangible impact of AI on the financial sector, with a particular focus on the supervisory perspective and the transition to an effective RBS regime. The authors also attempted to forecast the medium- and long-term implications of AI on the roles and responsibilities of the financial sector supervisor. This exploration seeks to enhance our understanding of how AI is influencing the financial landscape and its implications for future regulatory practices.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Dohotaru, Matei; Prisacaru, Marin; Shin, Ji Ho; Palta, Yasemin. 2025. AI for Risk-Based Supervision: Another Nice to Have Tool or a Game-Changer. Prosperity Insight Series. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42874 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds in Australia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02) Thompson, Graeme
    This paper examines the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in Australia. The large number of pension funds has meant that since the inception of pension fund supervision in the early 1990's the regulator has sought to identify high risk funds and focus its attention on these funds. However, the regulator developed a more sophisticated risk-rating model, known as PAIRS/SOARS, in 1992 in order to apply a more disciplined and consistent ratings methodology. Four reasons are given for the move towards more sophisticated risk-based supervision: 1) creation of an integrated supervisor which allowed the use of techniques used in banking and insurance to be adopted for pension fund; 2) the need to better use available supervisory resources; 3) several pension fund failures; and 4) concerns about industry weaknesses. Supervisory techniques used particularly in the banking industry, such as universal licensing, 'fit and proper' assessment, and risk management requirements were adopted for the pension sector between 2004 and 2006. The paper provides an outline of the PAIRS/SOARS risk-rating model which was also adopted. It observes that the approach provides an analytical discipline to risk assessment, strengthens the link between risk assessment and supervisory response, and allows better targeting of supervisory resources.
  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Institutions in Denmark
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-02) van Dam, Rein; Andersen, Erik Brink
    This paper examines the move towards risk-based supervision of pension institutions in Denmark. Although Denmark has not adopted a comprehensive model to assess risk it has developed a number of building blocks which it uses for risk-based assessment. The motivations for improving risk assessment include a desire to identify emerging problems, and concerns about the solvency of pension institutions. In Denmark there is extensive use of guaranteed minimum returns in both the accumulation and payout phases which create substantial obligations on pension institutions, and focus attention on the integrity and solvency of the institutions which provide them. In conjunction with freeing up investment restrictions and moving towards market valuation of assets, the supervisor has introduced a 'traffic light' stress test model which calculates the effect of several market scenarios - the red test which is the more plausible and the yellow test which is possible but less likely. In addition to the use of the traffic light system, there has been a growing emphasis on the adequacy of internal risk control systems and greater reliance on market discipline. Pension institutions have sought to reduce their exposure to market volatility by better matching of assets and liabilities. There is a much better understanding of the risks inherent in the pension institutions' portfolios, and there has been a substantial increase in the use of hedging instruments.
  • Publication
    Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds : A Review of International Experience and Preliminary Assessment of the First Outcomes
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-01) Brunner, Gregory; Hinz, Richard; Rocha, Roberto
    This paper provides a review of the design and experience of risk-based pension fund supervision in several countries that have been leaders in the development of these methods. The utilization of risk-based methods originates primarily in the supervision of banks. In recent years it has increasingly been extended to other types of financial intermediaries including pension funds and insurers. The trend toward risk-based supervision of pensions is closely associated with movement toward the integration of pension supervision with that of banking and other financial services into a single national authority. Although similar in concept to the techniques developed in banking, the application to pension funds has required modifications, particularly for defined contribution funds that transfer investment risk to fund members. The countries examined provide a range of experiences that illustrate both the diversity of pension systems and approaches to risk-based supervision, but also a commonality of the focus on sound risk management and effective supervisory outcomes. The paper provides a description of pension supervision in Australia, Denmark, Mexico and the Netherlands, and an initial evaluation of the results achieved in relation to the underlying objectives.
  • Publication
    Risk-based Supervision of Pension Funds : Emerging Practices and Challenges
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2008) Brunner, Greg; Hinz, Richard; Rocha, Roberto
    Risk-based supervision of pension funds grew out of a project that was jointly conducted by the World Bank and the International Organization of Pension Supervisors (IOPS). The project was initiated in response to the increasing interest in the development of innovative approaches to pension supervision from the member countries of both institutions. The volume provides an initial assessment of the development of risk-based supervision of pension funds in four countries that have been pioneering the development of risk-based supervision methods in various forms. The volume is comprised of a summary chapter and in-depth studies of the experience in four individual countries-Australia, Denmark, Mexico, and Netherlands. These four country studies were prepared by experts familiar with the systems in each of the countries. The studies have been edited by World Bank staff to ensure a consistent approach to the analysis of the various countries' systems. Models of risk-based supervision demonstrate the benefits of moving away from an approach based on strict compliance, specific rules, and quantitative controls toward an approach that puts more emphasis on the identification and management of relevant risks. A risk-based approach encourages supervised entities to place a greater focus on risk management in their daily operations, which promotes a stronger pension system and more effective outcomes for the members of the system. It is also expected that moving to a risk-based approach to supervision will enhance the ability of supervisors to focus resources on areas of highest risk, which will, over time, result in a more efficient use of supervisory resources.
  • Publication
    Brazil : Risk-based Supervision of Brazilian Closed Pension Funds
    (Washington, DC, 2012-06) World Bank
    This report provides a comprehensive description of the full process for supporting the new supervisory authority for closed pension funds in Brazil, The National Superintendence for Pension Funds, supervisor of the closed pension fund system in Brazil, or PREVIC, in particular through the development of a revised approach to the risk-based supervision of closed pension funds. This report documents the first-funded World Bank project which, in conjunction with PREVIC, the supervisor of the closed pension fund system in Brazil (established in January 2010), has sought to provide guidance to implement a risk based supervision (RBS) appropriate to Brazilian environment, drawing on international experience. The project ran from January 2010 to March 2012. The key outputs of the project were specified as: i) an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current supervisory benchmarking against best practices in RBS around the world; ii) a roadmap for the implementation of RBS under the circumstances prevailing in the industry; iii) proposals for regulations on selected critical elements for the implementation of RBS framework; and iv) training to supervisors and senior executives of closed pension funds about the main challenges of introducing RBS.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    The Container Port Performance Index 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18) World Bank
    The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.