Publication:
A Pivotal Moment for Guyana: Realizing the Opportunities

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.9 MB)
651 downloads
English Text (409.58 KB)
75 downloads
Date
2020-11
ISSN
Published
2020-11
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Guyana stands at the threshold of a new era. The recent discovery of vast offshore oil and gas (O&G) reserves and the start of production, is poised to fundamentally transform the structure of the Guyanese economy while generating an influx of fiscal revenue. Prior to the discovery, extractive industries and commodity exports already played a major role in Guyana’s economy and public finances. However, the mining sector created few jobs and had a limited impact on poverty reduction. The rise of the O&G sector poses unprecedented macro-fiscal management challenges while offering new opportunities to address longstanding development constraints. The development of oil-producing countries often comes at high cost of environment and climate change, which needs to be balanced. In addition, the country is now facing the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic that will stretch the public health systems and highlight inadequacies of testing and treatment facilities. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter 1 situates the development of the oil sector within Guyana’s broader economic, social, and political context. Chapter 2 estimates the magnitude of fiscal revenues from the oil sector, along with alternative cost scenarios, and the implications of alternative strategies for allocating these revenues and considers how policies can mitigate the macro-fiscal and environmental risks posed by the sector. Chapter 3 focuses on institutional quality and good governance, especially in terms of strengthening the public sector, and it details challenges related to the design and implementation of a sovereign wealth fund, which the international experience has shown to be vital to the success of resource-rich developing countries. Chapter 4 explores how the government can leverage natural resource revenues to accelerate Guyana’s economic transformation and spur job creation. Chapter 5 evaluates strategies for transforming Guyana’s natural capital into human capital and reaching full coverage of basic services and infrastructure through investment in health, education, and social protection. The chapter highlights the constraints in human capital development and health facilities; even more critical that these are addressed in context of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Chapter 6 prioritizes interventions necessary to generate enduring gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. A key offering of the chapter is a spatial development package to address deficiencies in basic service delivery and infrastructure necessary to protect well-being and health of Guyanese citizens. To ground the analysis in the real-world experience of Guyanese communities, each chapter begins with a brief discussion of how the newfound wealth will affect the most vulnerable and marginalized households.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2020. A Pivotal Moment for Guyana: Realizing the Opportunities. Systematic Country Diagnostic;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34969 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Croatia - Living Standards Assessment : Volume 1, Promoting Social Inclusion and Regional Equity
    (Washington, DC, 2006-11) World Bank
    The Croatian economy has performed moderately well in the past decade, enabling a gradual narrowing of the income gap with the European Union (EU). Using a cost-of-basic-needs poverty line, poverty in Croatia is found to be low, with only a small proportion of the poor facing hard-core deprivation. Looking ahead, the task of faster external income convergence with the EU will be challenging, and will require both faster job creation as well as flexibility in the allocation of jobs and workers in the economy. These will also help with more rapid improvement in living conditions in lagging regions. To these ends, the report highlights three sets of interrelated policy challenges and priorities: (1) sustaining high rates of growth to permit continued income convergence with Europe; (2) promoting greater labor mobility, including measures aimed at building human capital to improve workers' opportunities; and (3) improving the adequacy and effectiveness of social safety nets within a responsible fiscal framework. In examining regional disparities, several development indicators show that regional disparities in living conditions are significant (though on average no higher than in EU countries), and only partially explained by human capital and other such individual attributes. Building on local comparative advantages offers the best way forward to improve living conditions in lagging regions.
  • Publication
    Vietnam - Delivering on Its Promise : Development Report 2003
    (Washington, DC, 2002-11-21) World Bank
    The focus of the report, combined with Vietnam's remarkable long-term growth potential, presents a favorable outlook, suggesting the effects of the East Asian crisis are over. The country is committed to socially inclusive development, and, translates a vision of transition towards a market economy, with socialist orientation into concrete public actions, emphasizing the transition should be pro-poor, noting this will require investments in the rural, and lagging regions, and a more gradual reform implementation, than often recommended. However, challenges identified include, first, further progress in economic reform - fast progress in liberalizing foreign trade, and integrating with world economy is increasingly at odds with the slowdown of state-owned enterprise reform. Second, poverty alleviation may be endangered - for in the absence of vigorous action, inequality is likely to increase. And, third, improving the quality of governance faces an economic inefficient mismatch, reflected by its legal framework, budgetary system, and administrative structures, resulting from the inherited centrally-planned economy. The report reviews the increasing inequalities, and the need to redress imbalances, indicating that - although needed - economic reforms, trade liberalization, and the transformation of state-owned enterprises, may create losers, while many of the gains of the last decade remain fragile. The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS) identified key decisions that need to be made, supported by strong inter-ministerial coordination for its implementation, namely rolling out to provincial, district, and commune levels in order to better align priorities, and expenditures to the national development goals, supported by external assistance.
  • Publication
    Bangladesh - Development Policy Review : Impressive Achievements but Continuing Challenges
    (Washington, DC, 2003-12-14) World Bank
    Bangladesh has marked considerable progress since independence in 1971 despite its dire initial conditions. Real per capita income is about 60percent higher now than in 1971. The share of population in poverty currently stands at about 50 percent, compared with over 70 percent in the early 1970s. Even more impressive has been the progress in improving the social and human dimensions of poverty. Bangladesh's faster gains in human development than in income growth result from public policies that have complemented the remarkable energy at the grassroots level. This energy was effectively channeled by the country's nongovernmental organizations and community-based organizations, many of which are world leaders in their innovative ideas and operational methods. Many challenges remain to be addressed, however, especially in the area of institutions. Remaining gaps in policies and weak institutions have impeded a faster pace of development. Inadequate improvement in governance has particularly constrained the investment climate and greatly diminished the state's ability to deliver basic social services, especially to the poor. The situation requires urgent action on the bold reform agenda adopted by the new government in the context of its Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) in 2003. The authorities need to accelerate the pace of structural reforms-particularly in the areas of infrastructure (physical and financial), macroeconomic management, and overall governance-to improve the investment climate and strengthen social inclusion and participation. Unless this is done, Bangladesh will not be able to achieve the goals laid down in the I-PRSP; indeed, the gains already achieved risk being eroded.
  • Publication
    On the Long-Term Holistic Development Framework Principle of the CDF : An Evaluation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01) Gadir Ali, Ali Abdel; Disch, Arne
    The Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) is an initiative by the World Bank's President James D. Wolfensohn (1999), to enhance the effectiveness of the partners of development of the developing countries in bringing about desired development outcomes. According to the CDF Secretariat (2000) the CDF is 'an approach by which countries can achieve more effective poverty reduction. It emphasizes the interdependence of all elements of development, social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial.' The framework is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country ownership of development programs and policies; country-led partnership among various stakeholders; and, results orientation. The remainder of this paper is organized in five sections. Section two offers an analytical framework suitable for the formulation of a holistic, long-term poverty reduction strategy. The framework is used as a benchmark against which the implementation of the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework (LTHDF) is evaluated. Section three provides a cursory and highly selective reading of the implementation of the CDF long-term holistic development framework in the six pilot countries. In this section it is assumed that the poverty reduction strategy papers provide the embodiment of the CDF principle irrespective of whether countries state this explicitly or not. Section four provides an evaluation of the implementation of the CDF principle while section five provides an evaluation of the response of donors to the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework. This section is based on a survey instrument that has been designed to elicit these responses. Section six offers a few concluding remarks and proposes a number of hypotheses that can be tested in future evaluation of the CDF.
  • Publication
    China - Promoting Growth with Equity : Country Economic Memorandum
    (Washington, DC, 2003-09-15) World Bank
    International experience suggests that the effect of globalization on economic growth, poverty and income distribution can vary significantly among countries, and that its impact depends crucially on national policies. This report assesses the possible patterns of inequality in China in the future, and outlines policy options that could help accomplish China's objective of growth with equity. For sustaining growth, the report emphasizes the freer flow of resources and goods and services in the economy, to be achieved by domestic market integration and flexibility. The report suggests that the cost of market fragmentation and rigidities is high, and highlights measures to reduce local protectionism, facilitate migration, and commercialize the banking sector. To optimize the results of domestic market integration and promote growth with equity, the report proposes a package of policy actions that would promote new job opportunities, especially in the less developed regions, and raise returns on farm labor and land. Among these, the report highlights investing in people, promoting the diffusion of technology, facilitating urban agglomeration, expanding services and enhancing farmers' prospects. Finally, the report tackles the social, economic and fiscal risks that may threaten future growth and distributional performance. In particular, it suggests extending different types of formal social security in both urban and rural areas, for fixing the inter- government fiscal system in order to facilitate the provision of public services, and for managing fiscal risk beyond the government budget and officially recognized debt.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02) World Bank
    South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06) World Bank
    Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
  • Publication
    Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12) Malpass, David
    World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.
  • Publication
    Economic Recovery
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06) Malpass, David; Georgieva, Kristalina; Yellen, Janet
    World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.
  • Publication
    Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Calleja, Ramon V., Jr.; Mbuya, Nkosinathi V.N.; Morimoto, Tomo; Thitsy, Sophavanh
    The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.