Publication: A Pivotal Moment for Guyana: Realizing the Opportunities
Loading...
Date
2020-11
ISSN
Published
2020-11
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Guyana stands at the threshold of a new era. The recent discovery of vast offshore oil and gas (O&G) reserves and the start of production, is poised to fundamentally transform the structure of the Guyanese economy while generating an influx of fiscal revenue. Prior to the discovery, extractive industries and commodity exports already played a major role in Guyana’s economy and public finances. However, the mining sector created few jobs and had a limited impact on poverty reduction. The rise of the O&G sector poses unprecedented macro-fiscal management challenges while offering new opportunities to address longstanding development constraints. The development of oil-producing countries often comes at high cost of environment and climate change, which needs to be balanced. In addition, the country is now facing the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic that will stretch the public health systems and highlight inadequacies of testing and treatment facilities. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter 1 situates the development of the oil sector within Guyana’s broader economic, social, and political context. Chapter 2 estimates the magnitude of fiscal revenues from the oil sector, along with alternative cost scenarios, and the implications of alternative strategies for allocating these revenues and considers how policies can mitigate the macro-fiscal and environmental risks posed by the sector. Chapter 3 focuses on institutional quality and good governance, especially in terms of strengthening the public sector, and it details challenges related to the design and implementation of a sovereign wealth fund, which the international experience has shown to be vital to the success of resource-rich developing countries. Chapter 4 explores how the government can leverage natural resource revenues to accelerate Guyana’s economic transformation and spur job creation. Chapter 5 evaluates strategies for transforming Guyana’s natural capital into human capital and reaching full coverage of basic services and infrastructure through investment in health, education, and social protection. The chapter highlights the constraints in human capital development and health facilities; even more critical that these are addressed in context of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Chapter 6 prioritizes interventions necessary to generate enduring gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. A key offering of the chapter is a spatial development package to address deficiencies in basic service delivery and infrastructure necessary to protect well-being and health of Guyanese citizens. To ground the analysis in the real-world experience of Guyanese communities, each chapter begins with a brief discussion of how the newfound wealth will affect the most vulnerable and marginalized households.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. A Pivotal Moment for Guyana: Realizing the Opportunities. Systematic Country Diagnostic;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34969 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Croatia - Living Standards Assessment : Volume 1, Promoting Social Inclusion and Regional Equity(Washington, DC, 2006-11)The Croatian economy has performed moderately well in the past decade, enabling a gradual narrowing of the income gap with the European Union (EU). Using a cost-of-basic-needs poverty line, poverty in Croatia is found to be low, with only a small proportion of the poor facing hard-core deprivation. Looking ahead, the task of faster external income convergence with the EU will be challenging, and will require both faster job creation as well as flexibility in the allocation of jobs and workers in the economy. These will also help with more rapid improvement in living conditions in lagging regions. To these ends, the report highlights three sets of interrelated policy challenges and priorities: (1) sustaining high rates of growth to permit continued income convergence with Europe; (2) promoting greater labor mobility, including measures aimed at building human capital to improve workers' opportunities; and (3) improving the adequacy and effectiveness of social safety nets within a responsible fiscal framework. In examining regional disparities, several development indicators show that regional disparities in living conditions are significant (though on average no higher than in EU countries), and only partially explained by human capital and other such individual attributes. Building on local comparative advantages offers the best way forward to improve living conditions in lagging regions.Publication Vietnam - Delivering on Its Promise : Development Report 2003(Washington, DC, 2002-11-21)The focus of the report, combined with Vietnam's remarkable long-term growth potential, presents a favorable outlook, suggesting the effects of the East Asian crisis are over. The country is committed to socially inclusive development, and, translates a vision of transition towards a market economy, with socialist orientation into concrete public actions, emphasizing the transition should be pro-poor, noting this will require investments in the rural, and lagging regions, and a more gradual reform implementation, than often recommended. However, challenges identified include, first, further progress in economic reform - fast progress in liberalizing foreign trade, and integrating with world economy is increasingly at odds with the slowdown of state-owned enterprise reform. Second, poverty alleviation may be endangered - for in the absence of vigorous action, inequality is likely to increase. And, third, improving the quality of governance faces an economic inefficient mismatch, reflected by its legal framework, budgetary system, and administrative structures, resulting from the inherited centrally-planned economy. The report reviews the increasing inequalities, and the need to redress imbalances, indicating that - although needed - economic reforms, trade liberalization, and the transformation of state-owned enterprises, may create losers, while many of the gains of the last decade remain fragile. The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS) identified key decisions that need to be made, supported by strong inter-ministerial coordination for its implementation, namely rolling out to provincial, district, and commune levels in order to better align priorities, and expenditures to the national development goals, supported by external assistance.Publication Bangladesh - Development Policy Review : Impressive Achievements but Continuing Challenges(Washington, DC, 2003-12-14)Bangladesh has marked considerable progress since independence in 1971 despite its dire initial conditions. Real per capita income is about 60percent higher now than in 1971. The share of population in poverty currently stands at about 50 percent, compared with over 70 percent in the early 1970s. Even more impressive has been the progress in improving the social and human dimensions of poverty. Bangladesh's faster gains in human development than in income growth result from public policies that have complemented the remarkable energy at the grassroots level. This energy was effectively channeled by the country's nongovernmental organizations and community-based organizations, many of which are world leaders in their innovative ideas and operational methods. Many challenges remain to be addressed, however, especially in the area of institutions. Remaining gaps in policies and weak institutions have impeded a faster pace of development. Inadequate improvement in governance has particularly constrained the investment climate and greatly diminished the state's ability to deliver basic social services, especially to the poor. The situation requires urgent action on the bold reform agenda adopted by the new government in the context of its Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) in 2003. The authorities need to accelerate the pace of structural reforms-particularly in the areas of infrastructure (physical and financial), macroeconomic management, and overall governance-to improve the investment climate and strengthen social inclusion and participation. Unless this is done, Bangladesh will not be able to achieve the goals laid down in the I-PRSP; indeed, the gains already achieved risk being eroded.Publication On the Long-Term Holistic Development Framework Principle of the CDF : An Evaluation(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01)The Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) is an initiative by the World Bank's President James D. Wolfensohn (1999), to enhance the effectiveness of the partners of development of the developing countries in bringing about desired development outcomes. According to the CDF Secretariat (2000) the CDF is 'an approach by which countries can achieve more effective poverty reduction. It emphasizes the interdependence of all elements of development, social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial.' The framework is articulated around four major principles: long-term, holistic development framework; country ownership of development programs and policies; country-led partnership among various stakeholders; and, results orientation. The remainder of this paper is organized in five sections. Section two offers an analytical framework suitable for the formulation of a holistic, long-term poverty reduction strategy. The framework is used as a benchmark against which the implementation of the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework (LTHDF) is evaluated. Section three provides a cursory and highly selective reading of the implementation of the CDF long-term holistic development framework in the six pilot countries. In this section it is assumed that the poverty reduction strategy papers provide the embodiment of the CDF principle irrespective of whether countries state this explicitly or not. Section four provides an evaluation of the implementation of the CDF principle while section five provides an evaluation of the response of donors to the CDF principle on the long-term holistic development framework. This section is based on a survey instrument that has been designed to elicit these responses. Section six offers a few concluding remarks and proposes a number of hypotheses that can be tested in future evaluation of the CDF.Publication China - Promoting Growth with Equity : Country Economic Memorandum(Washington, DC, 2003-09-15)International experience suggests that the effect of globalization on economic growth, poverty and income distribution can vary significantly among countries, and that its impact depends crucially on national policies. This report assesses the possible patterns of inequality in China in the future, and outlines policy options that could help accomplish China's objective of growth with equity. For sustaining growth, the report emphasizes the freer flow of resources and goods and services in the economy, to be achieved by domestic market integration and flexibility. The report suggests that the cost of market fragmentation and rigidities is high, and highlights measures to reduce local protectionism, facilitate migration, and commercialize the banking sector. To optimize the results of domestic market integration and promote growth with equity, the report proposes a package of policy actions that would promote new job opportunities, especially in the less developed regions, and raise returns on farm labor and land. Among these, the report highlights investing in people, promoting the diffusion of technology, facilitating urban agglomeration, expanding services and enhancing farmers' prospects. Finally, the report tackles the social, economic and fiscal risks that may threaten future growth and distributional performance. In particular, it suggests extending different types of formal social security in both urban and rural areas, for fixing the inter- government fiscal system in order to facilitate the provision of public services, and for managing fiscal risk beyond the government budget and officially recognized debt.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-09)Note: Chart 1.2.B has been updated on January 18, 2024. Chart 2.2.3 B has been updated on January 14, 2024. Global growth is expected to slow further this year, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment. Downside risks include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial stress, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters face the enduring challenges posed by fiscal policy procyclicality and volatility, which highlight the need for robust fiscal frameworks. Across EMDEs, previous episodes of investment growth acceleration underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic and structural policies and an enabling institutional environment in bolstering investment and long-term growth. At the global level, cooperation needs to be strengthened to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, tackle climate change, and alleviate food insecurity.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.