Publication: Deep Trade Agreements and International Migration: The Role of Visa Provisions
Loading...
Files
216 downloads
18 downloads
Date
2023-02
ISSN
Published
2023-02
Editor(s)
Abstract
An increasing number of regional trade agreements contains provisions that ease access to visas among member countries, which reduces the administrative cost of crossing the border. Combining United Nations data on bilateral stocks of immigrants in the period 1990-2020 with World Bank data on the content of 279 regional trade agreements, this paper presents robust evidence of a positive effect of visa provisions in regional trade agreements on bilateral migration: the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 5.9 percent. This result is robust to an instrumental variable strategy addressing the endogeneity problem. The effect of the inclusion of visa provisions in regional trade agreements is particularly effective among country pairs with different income levels (such as North-South). For this type of country pairs, the presence of visa provisions in regional trade agreements increases the bilateral stock of immigrants by 13 percent. Finally, the paper shows that the effectiveness of visa provisions in regional trade agreements reduces with the anti-immigration sentiment of voters in the destination.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Levelu, Anthonin; Mayda, Anna Maria; Orefice, Gianluca. 2023. Deep Trade Agreements and International Migration: The Role of Visa Provisions. Policy Research Working Papers;10324. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39485 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication A General Equilibrium Assessment of the Economic Impact of Deep Trade Agreements(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04)This paper explores the economic impacts of preferential trade agreements, focusing on the provisions they contain, beyond phasing out tariffs. Clustering 278 preferential trade agreements based on 906 provisions grouped into 18 policy areas, three clusters are obtained for which a trade elasticity to preferential trade agreement is estimated using structural gravity. A series of full general equilibrium counterfactual situations for endowment economies is simulated, revealing the economic impacts of deepening existing trade agreements and signing new ones—that is, the intensive and extensive margins of preferential trade agreements. The paper illustrates the method with a general deepening of existing preferential trade agreements worldwide. Focusing on the examples of the Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific regions, the paper shows that deepening preferential trade agreements leads to higher trade and welfare effects than signing new ones.Publication Towards a Regional Strategy to Strengthen the Nurse Workforce of the English-speaking CARICOM : International Legal Instruments, Agreements and Obligations(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-01)The supply of nurses in the English-Speaking Caribbean is insufficient to meet the demand with growing shortages fuelled by the health needs of a rapidly aging population and tremendous losses of human capital occurring at multiple points in the markets. In defining the scope of commitments of a regional legal agreement, English-Speaking Caribbean Community (ES CARICOM) states will have to ascertain whether states would commit to actions to strengthen the nurse workforce or the health workforce more broadly. While the challenges of strengthening the nurse workforce have been systematically assessed, information about other groups of health professionals remains patchy. In 2008, at the request of the Ministers of Health, the World Bank initiated a stream of work to strengthen the nurse workforce in the English-speaking Caribbean. The study estimated the stock of nurses in the ES CARICOM at approximately 7,800 in 2007 with growing shortages under existing policies at 3,400 in 2007 increasing to 10,700 nurses in 2025 due to the health needs of a rapidly aging population. There are two types of international legal instruments: legally binding instruments or treaties; and non-legally binding instruments.Publication Towards a Regional Strategy to Strengthen the Nurse Workforce of the English-speaking CARICOM : International Legal Instruments, Agreements and Obligations(World Bank, 2012-01-01)The supply of nurses in the English-Speaking Caribbean is insufficient to meet the demand with growing shortages fuelled by the health needs of a rapidly aging population and tremendous losses of human capital occurring at multiple points in the markets. In defining the scope of commitments of a regional legal agreement, English-Speaking Caribbean Community (ES CARICOM) states will have to ascertain whether states would commit to actions to strengthen the nurse workforce or the health workforce more broadly. While the challenges of strengthening the nurse workforce have been systematically assessed, information about other groups of health professionals remains patchy. In 2008, at the request of the Ministers of Health, the World Bank initiated a stream of work to strengthen the nurse workforce in the English-speaking Caribbean. The study estimated the stock of nurses in the ES CARICOM at approximately 7,800 in 2007 with growing shortages under existing policies at 3,400 in 2007 increasing to 10,700 nurses in 2025 due to the health needs of a rapidly aging population. There are two types of international legal instruments: legally binding instruments or treaties; and non-legally binding instruments.Publication International Migration, Economic Development and Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, 2007)This volume reflects the expansion of the World Bank Research Program on International Migration and Development into new substantive and geographic areas. It presents a new global migration database and includes studies of the determinants and impact of return and circular migration, the impact of the flow of ideas on fertility, host country policies and their impact on immigrants, and the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty and other development indicators. The studies cover countries from Latin America, North Africa, South Asia, the South Pacific, and Western Europe, and show that the impact of migration on education and health tends to benefit girls more than boys, that its impact on labor force participation tends to be stronger for women than men, that return migrants tend to do better than non-migrants, and that fertility has tended to decline in countries whose migration has been to the West and has failed to do so in countries whose migration has been to the Gulf. The purpose of the case studies is to illustrate and clarify many theoretical mechanisms and to advance understanding of the impact of different migration policies, given that introducing policy variables in econometric regressions is generally difficult. Each study in this volume aims to answer a variety of development- and policy-related questions using the most appropriate of these three methodologies. These empirical studies and analyses include exploration of some novel hypotheses; they are also new in terms of the topics selected and the regions/ countries examinedPublication Deep Trade Agreements and Heterogeneous Firms Exports(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-01)This paper studies the effect of regional trade agreements on firms’ exports. Using detailed information on the content of trade agreements and firm-level exports for 31 developing countries between 2000 and 2020, the analysis shows that the depth of trade agreements matters for the export performance of firms. Moving from shallow to deep trade agreements boosts firms’ exports, on average, by 3.6 percent. In line with models of trade with heterogeneous firms, the trade impact of deep trade agreements depends on firm’s characteristics. The impact is stronger for large firms and firms involved in global value chains and is negative for small firms. Robustness tests and an Instrumental Variable strategy confirm the causal interpretation of the results. These heterogeneous impacts on firms’ exports imply a selection effect of deep trade agreements with significant welfare consequences.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication Is US Trade Policy Reshaping Global Supply Chains ?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-11-01)This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data (tariff-line level) between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China’s share of US imports fell from 22 to 16 percent. The paper shows that the decline is due to US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. Countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated into China’s supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China, especially in strategic industries. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China’s supply chains. Within products, the reorientation of trade is consistent with a “China + 1” strategy, as opposed to diversified sourcing across multiple countries. There is some evidence of nearshoring, but it is exclusive to border nations, and there is no consistent evidence of reshoring. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of imported goods to the US in 2022.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11)After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.Publication Growth in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16)This issue of the MENA Economic Update presents a summary of recent macroeconomic trends, including an update of the conflict centered in Gaza and its regional spillovers, alongside an analysis of factors that shape the long-term growth potential of the region, with special attention to the persistent effects of conflicts. A modest uptick in growth is forecast for 2024, which nonetheless masks important disparities within the region. The acceleration is driven by the high-income oil exporters, while growth is expected to decelerate among developing MENA countries, both developing oil exporters and developing oil importers. Despite current challenges, the region can dramatically boost growth by better allocating talent in the labor market, leveraging its strategic location, and promoting innovation. Closing the gender employment gap, rethinking the footprint of the public sector, and facilitating technology transfers through trade under enhanced data quality and transparency can help the region leap toward the frontier. Peace is a pre-condition for catching up to the frontier, as conflict can undo decades of progress, delaying economic development by generations.Publication Policy Options to Mitigate Political Risk and Attract FDI(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-12)Political risks covers a wide range of issues, and this note focuses on a subset of political risk: the risks that arise from government actions, whether political or regulatory, that can affect the profitability of an investment in a foreign country. Policies adopted and implemented by governments can directly mitigate these risks. Bad governance and economic crises are two big drivers of political risk. Both are currently prevalent globally, but especially in developing countries. The purpose of this note is to summarize how political risk caused by government actions can impact foreign investment, and what tools countries can use to manage and mitigate such risks.