Vietnam : Framework for Thermal BOT Tenders and Strategy for Gas Coordination and Harmonization with Market Roadmap, Volume 1

Abstract

The purpose of this Volume 1 report is to explore how development of the gas andelectricity sectors can be better coordinated within this dynamic environment. In particular,this report aims to: Briefly outline the gas resources and developments in Vietnam, and describe the current institutional arrangements for the gas sector and how they relate to overall gas and electricity planning; Identify key gas sector issues as they relate to gas and electricity sector planning in general and BOT electricity generation project development, and in particular identify the development and operating risks for a BOT electricity generation project developer and suggest mitigation measures for these risks ;Suggest mechanisms to improve gas and electricity planning coordination. Present a case study that illustrates some of the gas and electricity planning issues and how these would be addressed if the suggested planning changes were implemented. This assignment has been undertaken during a period of unprecedented change in Vietnam. The electricity sector is part way through the complex process of introducing a market. In global world energy markets, oil prices have risen to USD140/bbl and then dropped to below USD50/bbl in less than a year. In global financial markets, the world isfacing the deepest recession in decades, the banking sector is in turmoil, and theavailability of credit has shrunk dramatically. It is difficult for any planning process to cope with these massive worldwide shifts and fully capture the expected economic impact on a rapidly growing economy such as Vietnam. As a result of these events, some data such as electricity load forecasts and the least-cost ranking of generating plant would likely differ if they were updated. Nonetheless, the fundamental observations and recommendations of this report remain relevant despite (or perhaps because of) the volatility of international markets. And while recent economic volatility complicates planning, it makes it all the more necessary.