Publication:
Considering Labor Informality in Forecasting Poverty and Inequality: A Microsimulation Model for Latin American and Caribbean Countries

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dc.contributor.authorMontoya, Kelly
dc.contributor.authorOlivieri, Sergio
dc.contributor.authorBraga, Cicero
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-12T20:13:59Z
dc.date.available2023-07-12T20:13:59Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-12
dc.description.abstractEconomists have long been interested in measuring the poverty and distributional impacts of macroeconomic projections and shocks. In this sense, microsimulation models have been widely used to estimate the distributional effects since they allow accounting for several transmission channels through which macroeconomic forecasts could impact individuals and households. This paper innovates previous microsimulation methodology by introducing more flexibility in labor earnings, considering intra-sectoral variation according to the formality status, and assessing its effect on forecasting country-level poverty, inequality, and other distributive indicators. The results indicate that the proposed methodology accurately estimates the intensity of poverty in the most immediate years indistinctively of how labor income is simulated. However, allowing for more intra-sectoral variation in labor income leads to more accurate projections in poverty and across the income distribution, with gains in performance in the middle term, especially in atypical years such as 2020.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099516206222334188/IDU0847415ac0dc78040150bdd90714b239a7bb9
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10497
dc.identifier.urihttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39993
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers; 10497
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectMICROSIMULATION MODEL
dc.subjectEX-ANTE
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectFORECASTING
dc.subjectLABOR EARNING VARIATION
dc.titleConsidering Labor Informality in Forecasting Poverty and Inequalityen
dc.title.subtitleA Microsimulation Model for Latin American and Caribbean Countriesen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleConsidering Labor Informality in Forecasting Poverty and Inequality: A Microsimulation Model for Latin American and Caribbean Countries
okr.date.disclosure2023-06-22
okr.date.lastmodified2023-06-22T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099516206222334188/IDU0847415ac0dc78040150bdd90714b239a7bb9
okr.guid099516206222334188
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-847415ac-dc78-4015-bdd9-714b239a7bb9
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10497
okr.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10497
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34100000
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34100000
okr.identifier.reportWPS10497
okr.import.id1067
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099516206222334188/pdf/IDU0847415ac0dc78040150bdd90714b239a7bb9.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.region.geographicalCaribbean
okr.region.geographicalLatin America
okr.sectorSocial Protection
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Data Development and Capacity Building,Economic Policy,Economic Growth and Planning,Public Sector Management,Data production, accessibility and use
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Development Patterns and Poverty
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Equity and Development
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.unitEFI-LCR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ELCPV)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationed2b971d-2da6-512d-8cf3-fca4f4f5c513
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryed2b971d-2da6-512d-8cf3-fca4f4f5c513
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