Publication:
Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa

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dc.contributor.authorBalistreri, Edward J.
dc.contributor.authorMaliszewska, Maryla
dc.contributor.authorOsorio-Rodarte, Israel
dc.contributor.authorTarr, David G.
dc.contributor.authorYonezawa, Hidemichi
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-13T20:00:11Z
dc.date.available2016-06-13T20:00:11Z
dc.date.issued2016-05
dc.description.abstractEvidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union–Common Market of East and Southern Africa–South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26345239/poverty-shared-prosperity-implications-deep-integration-eastern-southern-africa
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7660
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/24498
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7660
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectTARIFFS
dc.subjectURUGUAY ROUND
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectMARKET STRUCTURE
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUPPLY
dc.subjectTRADE NEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectSTOCK
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectPROJECTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectBENCHMARK EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectDISCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectUNILATERAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL REDUCTION
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVES
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectMARKET SHARES
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectTRADE REFORMS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL MARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectTARIFF EQUIVALENT
dc.subjectREAL INCOME
dc.subjectINPUTS
dc.subjectRETURNS TO SCALE
dc.subjectREDUCTION OF BARRIERS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL TRADE
dc.subjectMARKET ACCESS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOMES
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN TRADE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION OF TRADE IN GOODS
dc.subjectCOSTS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectCENTRAL ELASTICITIES
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectFOREIGN SUPPLIERS
dc.subjectREGULATORY BARRIERS
dc.subjectPRIMARY FACTORS
dc.subjectRENT
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTION
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIER
dc.subjectIMPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOOD
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TARIFF REDUCTION
dc.subjectACCESS
dc.subjectWELFARE GAINS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectUTILITY
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectBORDER TRADE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION OF TRADE
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectUNILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectCAPITAL
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectTRADE PREFERENCES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectTRADE COSTS
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectCONCESSIONS
dc.subjectTRADE REFORM
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE AREA
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectRETURN ON CAPITAL
dc.subjectMEASUREMENT
dc.subjectWAGE RATE
dc.subjectUNILATERAL REDUCTION
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectECONOMIC THEORY
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectREGULATORY REGIMES
dc.subjectTRADE DIVERSION
dc.subjectTRADE DATA
dc.subjectREGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectECONOMIC INTEGRATION
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectAGGREGATE TRADE
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectGLOBAL TRADE
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCUSTOMS UNIONS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TRADE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE LOSS
dc.subjectTARIFF
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AREA
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectUNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectUNSKILLED WORKERS
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL TARIFF
dc.subjectBENCHMARK DATA
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
dc.subjectAPPAREL
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectAGGREGATE EXPORTS
dc.subjectIMPORT VALUE
dc.subjectUNSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectUNILATERAL REFORMS
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING
dc.titlePoverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africaen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titlePoverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa
okr.date.disclosure2016-05-04
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26345239/poverty-shared-prosperity-implications-deep-integration-eastern-southern-africa
okr.guid905551468180262500
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-7660
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0842f8adf_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum26345239
okr.identifier.reportWPS7660
okr.importedtrue
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/05/04/090224b0842f8adf/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Poverty0and0sh00and0Southern0Africa.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.geographicalEast Africa
okr.region.geographicalSouthern Africa
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade and Regional Integration
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Theory & Research
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Facilitation
okr.unitDevelopment Prospects Group, Development Economics
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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