Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration

doi:10.1093/wber/lhad009

Publication:
Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration

creativeworkseries.issn	1564-698X
dc.contributor.author	Fernández Guerrico, Sofía
dc.date.accessioned	2024-03-28T17:55:43Z
dc.date.available	2024-03-28T17:55:43Z
dc.date.issued	2023-02-27
dc.description.abstract	This paper examines the effect of trade-induced changes in Mexican labor demand on population growth and migration responses at the local level. It exploits cross-municipality variation in exposure to a change in trade policy between the United States and China that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports, negatively affecting Mexican manufacturing exports to the United States. Municipalities more exposed to the policy change, via their industry structure, experienced greater employment loss. In the five years following the change in trade policy, more exposed municipalities experience increased population growth, driven by declines in out-migration. Conversely, 6 to 10 years after the change in trade policy, exposure to increased trade competition is associated with decreased population growth, driven by declines in in-migration and return migration rates, and increased out-migration. The sluggish regional adjustment is consistent with high moving costs and transitions across sectors in the short term.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099918409082312419/IDU0ff71bb3a0528e0460c08e6e04ccdfbda3a00
dc.identifier.citation	The World Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/41316
dc.identifier.issn	0258-6770 (print)
dc.identifier.issn	1564-698X (online)
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/41316
dc.language	English
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseries	World Bank Economic Review
dc.rights	CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/
dc.subject	TRADE COMPETITION
dc.subject	JOB DISPLACEMENT
dc.subject	POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject	INTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.title	Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration	en
dc.type	Journal Article
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.associatedcontent	https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/37/2/305/7058782 Journal website (version of record)
okr.crossref.title	Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration
okr.date.disclosure	2024-04-28
okr.date.lastmodified	2023-09-08T00:00:00Z	en
okr.doctype	Journal Article
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099918409082312419/IDU0ff71bb3a0528e0460c08e6e04ccdfbda3a00
okr.guid	099918409082312419
okr.identifier.docmid	IDU-ff71bb3a-528e-460c-8e6e-4ccdfbda3a00
okr.identifier.doi	10.1093/wber/lhad009
okr.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1596/41316
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	34157915
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	34157915
okr.identifier.report	184820
okr.import.id	3678
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pagenumber	305-330
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099918409082312419/pdf/IDU0ff71bb3a0528e0460c08e6e04ccdfbda3a00.pdf	en
okr.peerreview	Academic Peer Review
okr.region.geographical	World
okr.topic	International Economics and Trade::Trade and Labor
okr.topic	International Economics and Trade::International Trade and Trade Rules
okr.topic	Communities and Human Settlements::Human Migrations & Resettlements
okr.unit	Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume	37 (2)
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relation.isJournalIssueOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	78e5953a-501c-4643-b0cc-a37fb6e094ae
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