Publication:
Detecting Illegal Trade Practices by Analyzing Discrepancies in Forest Products Trade Statistics: An Application to Europe, With a Focus on Romania

dc.contributor.authorVincent, Jeffrey R.
dc.date.accessioned2013-06-21T13:26:27Z
dc.date.available2013-06-21T13:26:27Z
dc.date.issued2004-04
dc.description.abstractDiscrepancies in bilateral trade statistics for forest products have recently attracted attention as potential indicators of illegal trade practices. For example, if exporters understate quantities to evade export taxes or quotas, then one might expect reported exports to be less than reported imports. Discrepancies in trade statistics can exist for reasons that have nothing to do with illegal activities, however, such as measurement error and shipment lags. Any attempt to infer evidence of illegal activities from statistical discrepancies must control for these other explanations. The author estimates the discrepancies between reported imports and exports for bilateral flows of sawnwood traded by Romania and other European countries. The author also examines whether these discrepancies reflect illegal activities by the traders. The mean discrepancy for sawnwood exported by Romania during 1982-97 was significantly different from zero for coniferous sawnwood but not for nonconiferous sawnwood. Yet the sign of the discrepancy for coniferous sawnwood-reported exports tended to be greater than reported imports-implies that illegal trade activities were more likely occurring in Romania's trading partners than in Romania. An econometric analysis of bilateral trade statistics for Romania and other European countries finds evidence that measurement error, shipment lags, and intentional underreporting all play a role in explaining discrepancies for both types of sawnwood. The econometric model is not sufficiently reliable, however, for estimating the portion that was due solely to illegal activities or determining whether those activities occurred primarily in Romania or in its trading partners. Moreover, given that it is based on observed discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics, it fails to detect illegal trade activities that occur simultaneously in both importing and exporting countries. For these reasons, econometric methods appear unlikely to be of practical use in revealing illegal trade activities in the Romanian forest sector.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/04/4133622/detecting-illegal-trade-practices-analyzing-discrepancies-forest-products-trade-statistics-application-europe-focus-romania
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3261
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/14104
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, D.C.
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No.3261
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectTRADE; LUMBER TRADE; BILATERAL TRADE; FOREST PRODUCTS; FORESTRY INDUSTRY; LOGGING; SAWNWOOD AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSES
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subjectECONOMISTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPORT PRICES
dc.subjectEXPORT TAXES
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REGULATION
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectLOGGING
dc.titleDetecting Illegal Trade Practices by Analyzing Discrepancies in Forest Products Trade Statistics: An Application to Europe, With a Focus on Romaniaen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleDetecting Illegal Trade Practices by Analyzing Discrepancies in Forest Products Trade Statistics: An Application to Europe, with a Focus on Romania
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T10:48:57.622516Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/04/4133622/detecting-illegal-trade-practices-analyzing-discrepancies-forest-products-trade-statistics-application-europe-focus-romania
okr.globalpracticeTrade and Competitiveness
okr.guid926071468757761986
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-3261
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000009486_20040610170553
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum4133622
okr.identifier.reportWPS3261
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2004/06/10/000009486_20040610170553/Rendered/PDF/wps3261Romania.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.topicDevelopment Economics and Aid Effectiveness
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Policy
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Free Trade
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicAgribusiness and Markets
okr.topicEnvironmental Economics and Policies
okr.unitOff of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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