Publication:
Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis

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dc.contributor.authorCabanillas, Oscar Barriga
dc.contributor.authorLugo, Maria Ana
dc.contributor.authorNielsen, Hannah
dc.contributor.authorRodriguez Castelan, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorZanetti, Maria Pia
dc.date.accessioned2014-05-14T22:14:59Z
dc.date.available2014-05-14T22:14:59Z
dc.date.issued2014-04
dc.description.abstractThe 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19455955/uruguay-more-resilient-time-distributional-impacts-crisis-similar-200102-argentine-crisis
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6849
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18334
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6849
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADVERSE SELECTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectANNUAL RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOME
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLIGHT
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS
dc.subjectCASH TRANSFERS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCENTRALIZATION
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDECLINING INEQUALITY
dc.subjectDEMAND SIDE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION EFFECT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC INEQUALITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC STUDIES
dc.subjectESTIMATES OF POVERTY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE REGIME
dc.subjectEXPECTED RETURN
dc.subjectEXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD BASKET
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHEALTH INSURANCE
dc.subjectHIGH INFLATION
dc.subjectHIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
dc.subjectHISTORICAL DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD LEVEL DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD MEMBERS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEYS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectHOUSING SUBSIDIES
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectINCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME CHANGE
dc.subjectINCOME COMPONENTS
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINCOME QUINTILE
dc.subjectINCOME SOURCES
dc.subjectINCOME TRANSFERS
dc.subjectINCREASED INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCREASING SHARE
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET POLICIES
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectMARKET INCOME
dc.subjectMEAN GROWTH
dc.subjectMEAN INCOME
dc.subjectMEAN INCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectMEDIAN INCOME
dc.subjectMEDIUM TERM
dc.subjectMIDDLE CLASS
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMORAL HAZARD
dc.subjectNEGATIVE GROWTH
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectNEGATIVE SHOCK
dc.subjectNEGATIVE SHOCKS
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectOBSERVED EVOLUTION
dc.subjectOBSERVED GROWTH
dc.subjectOBSERVED POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY DESIGN
dc.subjectPOLICY DISCUSSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY OPTIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY REFORM
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR PEOPLE
dc.subjectPOOR POPULATION
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOVERTY DECLINES
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCIDENCE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVELS
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINES
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY MITIGATION
dc.subjectPOVERTY POVERTY
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPOVERTY SEVERITY
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRIMARY PRODUCTS
dc.subjectPRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPROPORTIONAL CHANGE
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSFERS
dc.subjectPUBLIC WORKS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL INCOME
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSAVINGS ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectSECONDARY ENROLLMENT
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLICIES
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLICY
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSOCIAL SAFETY
dc.subjectSOCIAL SAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectTARGETING
dc.subjectTOTAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectURBAN AREAS
dc.subjectURBAN GROWTH
dc.titleIs Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisisen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleIs Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis
okr.date.disclosure2014-04-01
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T09:13:26.861873Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19455955/uruguay-more-resilient-time-distributional-impacts-crisis-similar-200102-argentine-crisis
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.guid226561468128677687
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-6849
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20140430150058
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum19455955
okr.identifier.reportWPS6849
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/04/30/000158349_20140430150058/Rendered/PDF/WPS6849.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeLatin America & Caribbean
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Rural Poverty Reduction
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.topicEconomic Theory and Research
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicServices and Transfers to Poor
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.unitPoverty Reduction and Economic Management Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication6a960626-cb7c-58a7-bf93-a7d8c71833c9
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2617abbe-b7ff-5678-991a-85d4f9583656
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery6a960626-cb7c-58a7-bf93-a7d8c71833c9
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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