Publication: Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050 : Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies
Loading...
Published
2012-01
ISSN
Date
2013-02-28
Editor(s)
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on agriculture are projected to be significant in coming decades, so response strategies, and their likely costs, should be evaluated now. That is why this study produced an open-access, crop-climate-economic impact modeling platform for Latin America and the Caribbean, that can be extended to other regions, then modified and improved by users as new crop, climate, and economic datasets become available. The new platform projects the likely impacts of agroclimatic factors on crop productivity, on the basis of climate projections from two general circulation models, and couples it with an economic model to derive and evaluate a range of climate-change scenarios and likely agricultural productivity and economic impacts over the next several decades.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Fernandes, Erick C.M.; Soliman, Ayat; Confalonieri, Roberto; Donatelli, Marcello; Tubiello, Francesco. 2012. Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050 : Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12582 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Ethiopia(Washington, DC, 2010-01)The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it. This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 2006. Climate projections obtained from the GCMs referred to above suggest an increase in rainfall variability with a rising frequency of both severe flooding and droughts due to global warming.Publication Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-06-03)This book analyzes the risks to Nigeria's development prospects that climate change poses to agriculture, livestock, and water management. These sectors were chosen because they are central to achieving the growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives of Vision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable to current climate variability. Since other sectors might also be affected, the findings of this research provide lower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts. Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria's Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of its people. Because virtually all production is rain-fed, agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings. It alerts us that increases in temperature, coupled with changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes, can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The book proposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as well as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to mitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate change poses. Nigeria's vision can become a reality if the country moves promptly to become more climate-resilient. Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria's efforts to achieve energy security. Though dominated by thermal power, the country's energy mix is complemented by hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply. Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability in rainfall results in power outages that affect both Nigeria's energy security and its growth potential. In particular, climate models converge in projecting that by mid-century water flows will increase for almost half the country, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and be uncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface. The overall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potential is not in question. On grounds of energy diversification and low carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower potential should be considered. Nigeria has a number of actions and policy choices it might consider for building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development.Publication Agricultural Development under a Changing Climate(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08)Climate change presents a profound challenge to food security and development. Negative impacts from climate change are likely to be greatest in regions that are currently food insecure and may even be significant in those regions that have made large gains in reducing food insecurity over the past half-century. Adaptation in the agricultural sector is being given a high priority within this effort because of the inherent sensitivity of food production to climate and the strong inter-linkages that exist between climate, agriculture, and economic growth and development. The purpose of this report is to review the major effects of climate change on the agricultural sector; to examine the causes of vulnerability; and to suggest a range of potential options and investment opportunities for supporting adaptation efforts and, more generally, for building adaptive capacity. This report primarily focuses on appropriate strategies for adapting to climate change impacts that are projected to occur over the next one to two decades, although several issues covered in this report are important for long-term adaptation needs as well. This report also describes opportunities for linking adaptation and mitigation, and it discusses the importance of mainstreaming adaptation into development.Publication Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Agriculture(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013)This report evaluates the requirements for an assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture to guide policy makers on investment priorities and phasing. Because agriculture is vital for national food security and is a strong contributor to Brazil's GDP growth, there is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change. To meet national development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land, and adapting to climate change. There is inadequate data to accurately model projected climate challenges facing Brazil. The report concludes that key integrated and linked interventions are needed in the short term to significantly improve currently available assessments of climate change impact on Brazilian agriculture and to guide policy makers with the priorities and phasing of needed investments.Publication Climate-Resilient Development in Vietnam(Washington, DC, 2011)Weather is the term used to describe the atmospheric conditions (heat, wetness, wind, etc.) prevailing at any one place and time. Climate is the sum of the prevailing weather conditions of a given place over a period of time, typically summed over many decades. This paper seeks to provide strategic directions for mainstreaming support for climate change within the World Bank's broader program of assistance to Vietnam. It does so by reviewing the current understanding of climate change in Vietnam and likely impacts, outlining principles to guide the Bank's engagement in this field, and applying these principles across a range of sectors, taking into account both near- and longer-term considerations. The report identifies elements of the Bank's current and planned portfolio of projects and analytical work that are contributing or will contribute to improved knowledge, planning, and actions, and it points to additional areas where new or more work seems warranted. The report represents a first iteration of a strategy for supporting Vietnam in managing the challenges posed by climate change. As more experience is gathered and as our understanding of both the science and the economics of climate change impacts in Vietnam improves, this strategy will need to be revisited and refined. While the process of climate change is expected to be a long-term phenomenon-with predictions for considerable changes through the second half of the twenty-first century, the focus of this report is on decisions and priorities that should govern the Bank's assistance during this decade. Given an array of uncertainties, extending the developing assistance planning vision much beyond 2020 is not practical. This time frame also corresponds to the government of Vietnam's own planning horizon.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.Publication Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-04)Grounded in new evidence from satellite data, “Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future” presents the first global assessment of freshwater reserves over the past two decades. The findings expose an alarming trend of “continental drying,” a persistent long-term decline in freshwater availability across vast landmasses. Not only are droughts and deluges becoming more unpredictable, but the total amount of freshwater available for use has also significantly declined. Continental drying, driven by global warming, worsening droughts, and unsustainable water and land use, is a silent but accelerating crisis—largely unknown to the public—that reshapes the global water narrative. Continental drying raises profound risks. This report reveals new empirical evidence showing how freshwater depletion leads to major job losses, reduced incomes, wildfires, and biodiversity threats. In the long term, the combined effects of drying and warming could push societies toward a tipping point where damage accelerates rapidly and adaptation becomes increasingly difficult. Against the backdrop of continental drying, global water consumption rose by 25 percent between 2000 and 2019, with about a third of this increase occurring in regions already experiencing drying. Compounding the pressure, a substantial share of water use in drying regions remains inefficient. Continental Drying identifies hot spots where rising demand and declining supply converge and explores where and how water savings can be realized. This report recommends a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: managing demand, augmenting water supply, and improving water allocation. Five cross-cutting levers—strengthening institutions, reforming water tariffs and repurposing subsidies, adopting water accounting, leveraging data and technological innovations, and valuing water in trade—are essential for effective implementation and to attract private investment to finance the approach. Beyond water, addressing trade barriers, investing in education and skills development, and improving access to markets and financial services are critical for strengthening job and livelihood resilience amid a continental drying crisis.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Kyrgyz Republic Country Climate and Development Report(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-03)This Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) on the Kyrgyz Republic aims to support the country’s development goals amid a changing climate. The CCDR considers two policy scenarios up to 2050: the business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios. As it quantifies the likely impacts of climate change on the Kyrgyz economy between now and 2050, the report highlights key government actions to best prepare for and adapt to climate impacts (referred to as “with adaptation” measures), with a particular focus on the time horizon up to 2030. The CCDR also outlines a path to net zero emissions by 2050 (referred to as “with mitigation” measures, “decarbonization,” or, simply, “net zero 2050”), highlighting associated development co-benefits.Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.