Publication: Global Economic Prospects : Financial Market Outlook, July 2013
Loading...
Published
2013-07
ISSN
Date
2015-02-26
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Global financial markets were largely stable during the past year, not with-standing the recent uptick in volatility amid uncertainty over the timing of an eventual tapering off of quantitative easing. Improved financial conditions are reflected in a strong rebound in gross capital flows (international bond issuance, cross-border syndicated bank loans and new equity placements) to developing countries, which were 63 percent higher in the first five months of 2013 than during the same period in 2012. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing countries increased by 9 percent during the first quarter of 2013 on a year-on-year basis, with a mixed picture across countries. Since late May, financial market volatility has increased, with increased expectations about possible tapering of U.S. quantitative easing in coming months and uncertainty over its impacts. Although there have been some large stock market corrections in some Asian countries, so far the overall impact has been moderate. Bond yields on developing country debt are also on the rise as base rates and spreads increase.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Aykut, Dilek; Kim, Eung Ju. 2013. Global Economic Prospects : Financial Market Outlook, July 2013. Global economic prospects,Financial markets outlook;. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21526 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Global Economic Prospects : Financial Markets Outlook, June 2014(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-06)External financing conditions for developing countries have been remarkably favorable in recent months, reflecting expectations of a more drawn-out period of monetary policy accommodation in high-income countries and some narrowing of external vulnerabilities. Additional easing by the European Central Bank, combined with prospects of modest growth and stable inflation in the United States ( Goldilocks recovery ), helped pull down bond yields and volatility worldwide. These benign conditions currently provide support to capital inflows and activity across developing countries, but could at the same time increase the risk of greater and potentially more abrupt market adjustments ahead. Despite some reduction of current account deficits in several developing countries, many remain vulnerable to sudden shifts in investors sentiment and capital outflows. Following a brief period of market turmoil at the start of the year, global financing conditions have eased consider-ably from March to June. Bond spreads for developing countries (i.e. yield difference with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) have narrowed, bringing down average borrowing costs to their lowest level since the spring of 2013. Stock markets have also recovered rapidly from a significant sell-off in January/February, despite rising geopolitical tensions and evidence of disappointing activity in the first quarter of the year. As presented in the June 2014 edition of Global Economic Prospects, a more favorable global environment is reflected in upward revisions to capital inflow forecasts for developing countries, now projected to remain broad-ly stable as a percentage of GDP in 2014 and 2015, at around 5.6 percent, before declining again in 2016, to 5.1 percent. While baseline forecasts assume an orderly in-crease in long-term interest rates in high-income countries, the risk of more abrupt adjustments from current low levels has recently increased. Escalating geopolitical tensions or financial stress in some developing countries could also potentially trigger a sudden re-pricing of risk. Despite the recent narrowing of current account deficits in some developing countries, many remain vulnerable to a sharp increase in borrowing costs and/or significant currency depreciations, which could put additional strain on corporate and bank balance sheets.Publication Global Economic Prospects : Financial Market Outlook, March 2013(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-03)Global financial conditions have improved substantially since July 2012, a reflection of the cumulative steps taken by high-income countries' central banks. Gross capital flows to developing countries, which weakened in mid-2012 due to Euro area turmoil, bounced back in the second half of the year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing countries are expected to have declined slightly in 2012 following increased uncertainty in global financial markets. Gross capital flows have remained strong so far in 2013, with January and February flows 47 percent higher than in the same period in 2012. The level of net capital flows going to developing countries is set to rise through 2015.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2011(World Bank, Jakarta, 2011-10)External events have dominated economic developments for Indonesia over the past quarter. The outlook for global growth has weakened and the euro zone sovereign debt crisis has intensified. International risk aversion and market volatility have increased, although they remain well below levels seen in late 2008. Equity markets have fallen and emerging markets have seen capital outflows, putting downward pressure on their currencies. Indonesia's domestic economic performance has continued to be strong but, as in other countries in the region, its financial markets have not been immune from this turbulence. Indonesia's domestic drivers of growth, its solid fiscal position, accumulation of reserves, and strengthened financial sector performance make it relatively well-placed to deal with shocks arising from the above scenarios. This improved resilience to external shocks, and a strong policy response, was seen during the 2008- 09 crisis. The final piece looks at the core development challenge of how to make growth more inclusive, as well as higher, focusing on an analysis of the province of East java.Publication Global Development Finance 2008 : The Role of International Banking, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook(2008)This report is comprised of two volumes. Global Development Finance (GDF) 2008 volume one provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of the role of international banking in developing countries. Volume two provides summary and country tables contain statistical tables on the external debt of the 134 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the Debtor Reporting System (DRS). It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe-national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank.Publication Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook(2006)Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Demystifying Dutch Disease(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-07)This paper examines the theory of Dutch disease and its implications for practical policy questions. Dutch disease is a term that is well-known to economists and development practitioners. But it is also a concept that is often conflated with "resource curse" and misinterpreted as a "disease" that necessarily causes adverse impacts on the economy. The paper points out that many of the seemingly well-established arguments in this field are not necessarily grounded in theory or empirical evidence. Great care is needed in diagnosing Dutch disease and formulating policy prescriptions based on the theoretical framework, given the restrictive assumptions that may not be fully applicable and the limited relevance to today s inextricably intertwined trade flows. Countries facing large inflows of foreign currency should focus on safeguarding the domestic economy from the volatility of international commodity and capital markets, and building robust institutions to reduce adjustment costs and boost broader competitiveness. A policy package needs to be comprehensive, covering macroeconomic and structural policy measures, and should be calibrated to target country specific concerns. Policies may need to be adjusted continuously in view of the evolving dynamics of the global and domestic economic environment.Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.Publication South Africa - IOSCO Principles--Securities Markets : Detailed Assessment of Implementation(Washington, DC, 2010-10)This is an update of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) assessment that was performed in 2000 as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) of South Africa. South Africa has made substantial progress in addressing the recommendations of the 2000 FSAP and is continuing to build upon these accomplishments. South Africa was one of the first countries to adopt the International Financial Reporting Standards promulgated by the International Accounting Standards Board. The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has the legal authority to register all companies in South Africa, including public companies and to set and enforce disclosure requirements and accounting standards. Significant amendments to the Companies Act dealing with this responsibility were enacted in 2007 and recently in 2009. DTI has not implemented the 2007 or 2009 amendments. Going forward, careful examination should be given to whether the authority and responsibility for these functions should continue in the DTI or be reassigned by Parliament to the Financial Services Board (FSB).Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.