Publication:
Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty

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dc.contributor.authorIslam, Asif M.
dc.contributor.authorGatti, Roberta
dc.contributor.authorWood, Christina A.
dc.contributor.authorLederman, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorFan, Rachel Yuting
dc.contributor.authorLotfi, Rana
dc.contributor.authorMousa, Mennatallah Emam
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, Ha
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-31T16:28:33Z
dc.date.available2022-03-31T16:28:33Z
dc.date.issued2022-04-11
dc.description.abstractThe Middle East and North Africa economies face an uncertain recovery. The war in Ukraine presents significant challenges to the global economy and the MENA region. Inflationary pressures brought about by the pandemic are likely to be further exacerbated by the conflict. The potential for rising food prices is even higher, which is likely to hurt the wallets of the poor and vulnerable in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cast a shadow. As the latest variant sweeps over the region, countries grapple with a host of problems depending on initial conditions and policy priorities. The region, like the rest of the world, is not out of the woods yet. Vaccinations remain the effective path out of the pandemic, leading to lower hospitalizations and death rates. Testing helps curb the spread. During times of uncertainty, it is important to not be overconfident about the region’s growth prospects. Growth forecasts serve as a significant signpost for policymakers to chart a path forward. Over the last decade, growth forecasts in the MENA region have often been inaccurate and overly optimistic, which can lead to economic contractions down the road due to ebullient borrowing. There is considerable room for the region to improve its forecasts that are largely hindered by opaque data systems, growth volatility and conflict. The MENA region lags considerably in the timely production of credible statistics. A key finding of the report is that the best way to improve forecasters is to provide forecasters with as much good quality information as possible.en
dc.identifierhttps://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099223304142214896/idu07c3126be0e71c044c60a91e0206f6fa7ff94
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/978-1-4648-1865-3
dc.identifier.isbn978-1-4648-1865-3
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/37246
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMENA Economic Update;
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectFORECASTING GROWTH
dc.subjectUNCERTAIN AND UNEVEN RECOVERY
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTERS
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTERS
dc.subjectINADEQUATE DATA SYSTEMS
dc.subjectDATA OPACITY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectARMED CONFLICT
dc.titleReality Checken
dc.title.subtitleForecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertaintyen
dc.typeSerialen
dc.typeSérielfr
dc.typeSeriales
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleReality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty
okr.date.disclosure2022-04-11
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-09T11:11:05.520580Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.guid099223304142214896
okr.guid099231104142236090
okr.guid099238504142218934
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/978-1-4648-1865-3
okr.identifier.report170462
okr.language.supporteden
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographicalEurope, Middle East and North Africa
okr.region.geographicalMiddle East
okr.region.geographicalNorth Africa
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.unitMNACE
okr.volumeApril 2022
relation.isAuthorOfPublication80e2e087-17b5-5934-9ff6-34ceb2ef6223
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2c812f70-403a-5905-88e4-bd90a5f31e96
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationc1c4d7c1-b16a-5f9a-a0ac-f855e347728a
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryc1c4d7c1-b16a-5f9a-a0ac-f855e347728a
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