Publication: Salt of the Earth: Quantifying the Impact of Water Salinity on Global Agricultural Productivity
Date
2019-12-10
ISSN
Published
2019-12-10
Author(s)
Abstract
Salinity in surface waters is on the
rise throughout much of the world. Many factors contribute
to this change including increased water extraction, poor
irrigation management, and sea-level rise. To date no study
has attempted to quantify impacts on global food production.
In this paper we develop a plausibly causal model to test
the sensitivity of global and regional agricultural
productivity to changes in water salinity. To do so, we
utilize several local and global datasets on water quality
and agricultural productivity and a model which isolates the
impact of exogenous changes in water salinity on yields. We
then train a machine learning model to predict salinity
globally in order to simulate average global food losses
from 2000-2013. These losses are found to be high, in the
range of the equivalent of 124 trillion kilocalories, or
enough to feed over 170 million people every day, each year.
Global maps building on these results show that pockets of
high losses occur on all continents but can be expected to
be particularly problematic in regions already experiencing
malnutrition challenges.
Citation
“Russ, Jason; Damania, Richard; Desbureaux, Sebastien; Escurra, Jorge; Rodella, Aude-Sophie; Zaveri, Esha. 2019. Salt of the Earth: Quantifying the Impact of Water Salinity on Global Agricultural Productivity. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33070 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”