Publication:
Managing East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatility

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dc.contributor.authorOlaberria, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorRigolini, Jamele
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T19:11:22Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T19:11:22Z
dc.date.issued2009-07-01
dc.description.abstractEast Asia has experienced a dramatic decrease in output growth volatility over the past 20 years. This is good news, as output growth volatility affects poor households because of coping strategies that have long-term, harmful consequences, and the overall economy through its negative impact on economic growth. This paper investigates the factors behind this long decline in volatility, and derives lessons about ways to mitigate renewed upward pressure in face of the financial crisis. The authors show that if, on the one hand, high trade openness has sustained economic growth in the past several decades, on the other hand, it has made countries more vulnerable to external fluctuations. Although less frequent terms of trade shocks and more stable growth rates of trading partners have helped to reduce volatility in the past, the same external factors are now putting renewed pressure on volatility. The way forward seems therefore to be to counterbalance the external upward pressure on volatility by improving domestic factors. Elements under domestic control that can help countries deal with high volatility include more accountable institutions, better regulated financial markets, and more stable fiscal and monetary policies.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090706140259
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4989
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4180
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4989
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectAGGREGATE OUTPUT
dc.subjectALLOCATION OF RESOURCES
dc.subjectAMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
dc.subjectASSETS
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectAVERAGE GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE LEVEL
dc.subjectBANK SUPERVISION
dc.subjectBANKING
dc.subjectBANKING CRISIS
dc.subjectBANKRUPTCY
dc.subjectBOND
dc.subjectBORROWERS
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subjectBUSINESS PRACTICES
dc.subjectCAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANKS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION VOLATILITY
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCRISIS
dc.subjectCRISIS VOLATILITY
dc.subjectCROSS COUNTRY
dc.subjectCROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE
dc.subjectCYCLICAL FISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectCYCLICAL VOLATILITY
dc.subjectDEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSIT INSURANCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDISCRETIONARY POLICIES
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectDUTCH DISEASE
dc.subjectDYNAMIC PANEL
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISES
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectEFFECT OF RECESSIONS
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET BUSINESS
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEQUITY
dc.subjectERROR TERM
dc.subjectESTIMATED REDUCTION
dc.subjectESTIMATION METHOD
dc.subjectEXCHANGE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subjectEXTERNAL CONDITIONS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FACTORS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL VULNERABILITY
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEPTH
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL OPENNESS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSOLIDATIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectFOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.subjectGLOBAL BUSINESS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH
dc.subjectGROWTH PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectGROWTH REGRESSION
dc.subjectGROWTH VOLATILITY
dc.subjectHIGH INCOME
dc.subjectHIGH TRADE OPENNESS
dc.subjectHIGH VOLATILITY
dc.subjectHIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHIGHER VOLATILITY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectIMPACT OF SHOCKS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME RISK
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectINFLATION RATE
dc.subjectINFLATION TARGETING
dc.subjectINFLATION VOLATILITY
dc.subjectINTERACTION TERMS
dc.subjectINTEREST
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE SHOCKS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INTEREST
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT
dc.subjectINVESTORS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLAGGED DEPENDENT
dc.subjectLAGGED LEVELS
dc.subjectLAGGED VALUES
dc.subjectLENDER OF LAST RESORT
dc.subjectLEVERAGE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY CRISES
dc.subjectLOW INCOME
dc.subjectLOW INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMEDIUM TERM
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME
dc.subjectMIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMONETARY ECONOMICS
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICIES
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONETARY RESEARCH
dc.subjectMONEY
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EFFECT
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject0 HYPOTHESIS
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMIES
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUT GROWTH
dc.subjectOUTPUT VOLATILITY
dc.subjectOVERALL VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPER CAPITA GROWTH
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL POWER
dc.subjectPOLITICAL REGIME
dc.subjectPOOR COUNTRIES
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR
dc.subjectPRODUCTION STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPRUDENTIAL SUPERVISION
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectRECESSIONS
dc.subjectREVERSE CAUSATION
dc.subjectREVIEW OF ECONOMICS
dc.subjectRISK SHARING
dc.subjectROBUSTNESS CHECK
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSCATTER PLOT
dc.subjectSERIAL CORRELATION
dc.subjectSHARE
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT EFFECT
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT IMPACT
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSTABILIZATION
dc.subjectSTABLE GROWTH
dc.subjectSTABLE INFLATION
dc.subjectSTANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subjectSUM OF IMPORTS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX BASE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectTRADE GROWTH
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUMES
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectUPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subjectVOLATILITIES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY MEASURES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY OF INFLATION
dc.subjectVOLATILITY OF TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS
dc.subjectWEIGHTS
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.titleManaging East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatilityen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleManaging East Asia's Macroeconomic Volatility
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:23:32.040251Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090706140259
okr.globalpracticePoverty
okr.guid226431468029030410
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4989
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20090706140259
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum10781023
okr.identifier.reportWPS4989
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/07/06/000158349_20090706140259/Rendered/PDF/WPS4989.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.geographicalEast Asia
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationb51f7805-9174-58dc-a585-0ca1b7edbebc
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryb51f7805-9174-58dc-a585-0ca1b7edbebc
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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