Publication: When the Rain Stops Falling: Effects of Droughts on the Tunisian Labor Market
Loading...
Date
2024-05-07
ISSN
Published
2024-05-07
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of severe drought shocks on Tunisia’s agriculture sector during 2000–19. Using labor force surveys aligned with granular weather data, it calculates the Standardized Potential Evapotranspiration Index to detect moderate-to-severe drought shocks at the governorate level and frames the analysis in a staggered difference-in-differences setting. The findings show that shocked areas experience a drop of 7.4 to 10.6 percentage points in agricultural employment with respect the untreated or not-yet-treated governorates. There is a contemporaneous opposite dynamic in the employment rate of low-skill and less climate-sensitive sectors, as well as a modest and transient increase in unemployment. The effects are largely heterogeneous across groups of workers, with very young individuals, women, and low-educated workers paying the highest toll.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Alfani, Federica; Pallante, Giacomo; Palma, Alessandro; Talhaoui, Abdelkader. 2024. When the Rain Stops Falling: Effects of Droughts on the Tunisian Labor Market. Policy Research Working Paper; 10766. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41514 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Reaching the Millennium Development Goals : Mauritania Should Care(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-07)Mauritania is a resource-rich developing country. As many other African nations, it will not reach most of the Millennium Development Goals, unless the authorities commit to accelerating progress. To succeed by 2015, the government needs to: mobilize additional financial resources, introduce policy changes at the sector level, and strengthen the links between strategic objectives and the budget. Adopting the Millennium Development Goals as the overarching development framework will keep policy-makers focused on concrete results and help them avoid the so-called "natural resource curse." This paper calculates the total cost of the Millennium Development Goals and financing gap (on aggregate and for each goal); recommends changes in domestic sector policies; and proposes ways to integrate the Millennium Development Goals into the budget process. Over 2008-2015, the total cost of reaching the goals in Mauritania and the resulting financing gap stand at, respectively, around 9 and 3 percent of non-oil gross domestic product on average per year. Education is the most expensive goal in absolute terms, but the individual financing gaps are widest for poverty reduction and improving maternal health. On the policy side, sector strategies need to be aligned with the goals and resources allocated more than proportionally to the disadvantaged groups, mainly at the local level.Publication Can We Measure Resilience? A Proposed Method and Evidence from Countries in the Sahel(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-01)Although resilience has become a popular concept in studies of poverty and vulnerability, it has been difficult to obtain a credible measure of resilience. This difficulty is because the data required to measure resilience, which involves observing household outcomes over time after every exposure to a shock, are usually unavailable in many contexts. This paper proposes a new method for measuring household resilience using readily available cross section data. Intuitively, a household is considered resilient if there is very little difference between the pre- and post-shock welfare. By obtaining counterfactual welfare for households before and after a shock, households are classified as chronically poor, non-resilient, and resilient. This method is applied to four countries in the Sahel. It is found that Niger, Burkina Faso, and Northern Nigeria have high percentages of chronically poor: respectively, 48, 34, and 27 percent. In Senegal, only 4 percent of the population is chronically poor. The middle group, the non-resilient, accounts for about 70 percent of the households in Senegal, while in the other countries it ranges between 34 and 38 percent. Resilient households account for about 33 percent in all countries except Niger, where the share is around 18 percent.Publication Job Displacement and Reallocation Failure(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-01)This paper investigates the effects of severe drought shocks in Morocco’s agriculture sector. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, the estimates show that climatic shocks produced job displacement of about 6.5 percentage points for workers who were exposed to severe drought events. Overall, about 45 percent of these workers remained unemployed, generating a partial reallocation failure. The effects are significant only for severe and extreme shocks; they last for at least five years, and are more pronounced among females and the least educated workers.Publication Lesotho Post-Disaster Needs Assessment : Heavy Rains 2010-11(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011)The Kingdom of Lesotho is a land-locked nation located in the Drakensberg mountain range in Southern Africa. The country has a total area of 30355 km² and in 2009 had an estimated population of nearly 2.1 million, with nominal per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$ 1080 (in 2010). About 75 percent live in rural areas, often in scattered mountain villages, while most of the urban population lives in and around the capital Maseru and the surrounding low lands. The hazards that affect Lesotho are drought, snowfall, hailstorms, strong winds, localized floods, and early frost. Lesotho's vulnerability to these hazards is compounded by a number of other underlying factors, including high levels of poverty, particularly in rural areas where the scattered nature of settlements makes the provision of and access to social services difficult. The high HIV prevalence rate has resulted in the existence of vulnerable groups, particularly Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs). This document describes the implementation of the Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) process, presents the findings of the assessment and makes initial recommendations for post-disaster recovery, reconstruction and risk reduction activities, to be considered by the Government.Publication Malawi Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment : Investing in Our Future, Synthesis Report(Washington, DC, 2007-12)This study builds a profile of the status of poverty and vulnerability in Malawi. Malawi is a small land-locked country, with one of the highest population densities in Sub-Saharan Africa, and one of the lowest per capita income levels in the world. Almost 90 percent of the population lives in rural areas, and is mostly engaged in smallholder, rain-fed agriculture. Most people are therefore highly vulnerable to annual rainfall volatility. The majority of households cultivate very small landholdings, largely for subsistence. As a result, poverty is pervasive and not merely the situation of the lowest economic groups. Therefore, while this report focuses on the least-well-off sections of the population, the analysis provides valuable information to accelerate wealth creation and economic growth for the whole of Malawi. This synthesis report presents the main findings and policy recommendations stemming from the analysis. Due to the length and detail of this study, the 'full report' presenting the detailed analysis and results underpinning these policy recommendations is available as a separate publication. This report highlights some of the key characteristics and causes of poverty in Malawi, and focuses on the main sources of risk affecting households, namely food insecurity and health shocks. Based on these findings, the report goes on to develop a set of policy recommendations for widely shared growth and poverty reduction, and for enabling the most vulnerable to make a living. Finally, the report also provides recommendations for strengthening the monitoring and evaluation systems of poverty reduction strategies, so that policy makers and Malawian society can better track the effectiveness of the policies pursued, and inform future policy choices.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit (GRIDMAP) - Framework and Methodology(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-05)GRIDMAP--the Global Regulations, Institutional Development, and Market Authorities Perspective Toolkit--provides emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) with a “Minimum Package” of policies to build markets that are trustworthy, safe, and competitive. The “Minimum Package” sets out essential regulatory provisions, institutional arrangements, and implementation and enforcement needed for those markets to thrive. GRIDMAP will provide modules focused on various subjects of market regulation, such as consumer protection and data markets.Publication Education, Social Norms, and the Marriage Penalty(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-16)A growing literature attributes gender inequality in labor market outcomes in part to the reduction in female labor supply after childbirth, the child penalty. However, if social norms constrain married women’s activities outside the home, then marriage can independently reduce employment, even in the absence childbearing. Given the correlation in timing between childbirth and marriage, conventional estimates of child penalties will conflate these two effects. The paper studies the marriage penalty in South Asia, a context featuring conservative gender norms and low female labor force participation. The study introduces a split-sample, pseudo-panel approach that allows for the separation of marriage and child penalties even in the absence of individual-level panel data. Marriage reduces women’s labor force participation in South Asia by 12 percentage points, whereas the marginal penalty of childbearing is small. Consistent with the central roles of both opportunity costs and social norms, the marriage penalty is smaller among cohorts with higher education and less conservative gender attitudes.