Publication:
Hot Water Rising: The Impact of Climate Change on Indonesia’s Fisheries and Coastal Communities

Abstract
With 17,504 islands, 108,000 kilometers of coastline, and three-quarters of its territory at sea, Indonesia’s prosperity is deeply entwined with its oceans. Yet the future for Indonesia’s oceans, like those worldwide, is increasingly uncertain. Climate change is driving increases in water temperatures, storm severity, and sea level rise, causing shifts in coastal ecosystems and fisheries. These trends pose challenges for Indonesia’s ocean economy and the people it supports. Indonesia’s fisheries are at the center of these challenges. The fisheries sector contributes US26.9 billion dollars annually to the national economy (around 2.6 percent of GDP), 50 percent of the country’s protein, and over 7 million jobs (World Bank 2021). The impact of climate change on the fisheries sector will thus have important implications for livelihoods, food security, and economic growth. While this is true around the world, few countries have fishery resources as vast as Indonesia’s or depend as much as Indonesia does on fisheries for jobs and protein. As this report highlights, the importance of ensuring productive and sustainable fisheries in the face of a changing climate is well-recognized. The Government of Indonesia is taking steps toward a climate-resilient marine and coastal economy through investment in infrastructure, technology, capacity-building, and governance. Strategies and actions are outlined in the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the Climate Resilient Development Policy 2020- 2045, and the List of Priority Locations and Climate Resilient Actions prepared by the Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas). Climate resilience is being prioritized by the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF).
Link to Data Set
Citation
Kaczan, D; Nurhabni, F; Cheung, W; Frölicher, T; Kuswardani, A; Lam, V; Muawanah, U; Puspasari, R; Reygondeau, G; Sumaila, U; Teh, L. 2023. Hot Water Rising: The Impact of Climate Change on Indonesia’s Fisheries and Coastal Communities. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40564 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Scaling Up Marine Management : The Role of Marine Protected Areas
    (Washington, DC, 2006-08) World Bank
    This study answers the key questions on marine protected areas (MPAs) by assessing country experience with these and other tools along the marine management area continuum that have been adopted to address loss of biodiversity and fisheries and other marine resource degradation, which have eroded traditional use rights and cultural identify. In light of the confusing array of MPA types and other Marine Management Areas, the report creates a typology of tools based on their structure and objectives and commented on their relative effectiveness in achieving objectives, including marine conservation. Finally, the report assesses the best way of scaling up these interventions to achieve results at meaningful scales through replication, networking, or mainstreaming onto other platforms. The main findings of this report were: open access is a principal driver of resource degradation in coastal commons; enforceable governance systems will be required to begin to deal with the formidable problem of regulating access (including types and rates of resource exploitation)-systems that can accommodate different marine coastal and marine environments and that do not undermine local cultural values and practices; while they can be successful in regulating access and use, particularly at the scale of local community-managed reserves, MPAs are fragile governance structures; they require ongoing stakeholder participation in co-management arrangements with authorities and adequate resources to enforce limited entry and use; MPAs are costly to establish and maintain; MPAs cannot survive in isolation; and a broad spectrum of MPA and other emerging coastal and marine management (CMM) frameworks are now in use.
  • Publication
    Indispensable Ocean : Aligning Ocean Health and Human Well-Being
    (Global Partnership for Oceans, Washington, DC, 2013-10-16) Blue Ribbon Panel
    A healthy ocean is fundamental to human wellbeing and an indispensable part of the Earth's life-support system, which sustains the species and the ecosystems upon which we depend. The ocean regulates our climate and, as part of the hydrological cycle, drives weather patterns that determine rainfall, droughts, and floods. The ocean has also reduced the impact of human-induced climate change by absorbing 25 percent of the carbon dioxide released by human activities and over 90 percent of the extra heat trapped by rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The ocean also provides food and sustains livelihoods. The size and growth of the human population is putting unprecedented pressure on natural resources, both on land and in the sea. The ocean may play an increasing role in supplying those resources and will, in this regard, play a critical role in global efforts to reduce poverty and improve livelihoods. Comprehensive global estimates of the economic activity associated with the ocean have only recently been attempted and a published consensus estimate has not yet emerged. The global economic benefits derived from the ocean's goods and services are, however, undeniably important, especially for coastal states and island nations. The ocean generates hundreds of millions of jobs in biotechnology, energy, fishing, shipping, tourism, and other sectors. Most current economic assessments do not yet fully account for the innumerable non-market ecosystem services that can deeply influence well-being, traditions, cultures, faith, and recreation and enjoyment for many millions of people.
  • Publication
    Framework Document for a Global Partnership for Oceans
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03) Global Partnership for Oceans
    This document summarizes the approach that the global partnership for oceans (GPO) will take in its work with countries to help improve the health of the oceans and reduce coastal poverty. Restoring the health of the world's ocean is a global challenge that can and must be solved if one has to alleviate poverty, build resilient communities, and foster strong coastal economies. The natural systems underpinning the health of the ocean and the livelihoods, food, and other services dependent upon them are at risk, due largely to human action occurring in the context of weak institutions. The GPO has been established as a convening platform that can help to reduce the barriers to countries obtaining the finance and expertise needed to restore ocean health. To finance this support, the GPO will establish a new global fund for oceans (GPO fund), as well as an ocean investment roundtable. To mobilize the knowledge countries need, the GPO will include a network of expertise from the partners, coordinated through a global assembly of partners, supported by the GPO fund, and a number of communities of practice established around specific issues and themes.
  • Publication
    Hidden Harvest : The Global Contribution of Capture Fisheries
    (Washington, DC, 2012-05) World Bank
    This report provides a disaggregated profile of the world's small and large-scale fisheries and an estimate of its direct and indirect contributions to gross domestic product, food security, and rural livelihoods to uncover the hidden importance of the fisheries sector with a view to increasing its economic and environmental contributions in a sustainable manner. The study reveals serious information deficiencies that undermine decision makers' understanding of the importance of the fisheries sector. The study concludes that the contribution of the world's fisheries to national and global economies is greater than that generally recognized by decision makers and makes recommendations to reform, inform, and improve data collection regarding capture fisheries.
  • Publication
    Fish to 2030 : Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture
    (Washington, DC, 2013-12) World Bank
    This report analyzes global prospects for fisheries and aquaculture. The World Bank Group (WBG) Agriculture Action Plan 2013-15 summarizes critical challenges facing the global food and agriculture sector. An ever-increasing global population necessitates adequate food and nutrition for the growing population through increased production and reduced waste. Production increase must occur in a context where resources necessary for food production, such as land and water, are even scarcer in a more crowded world, and thus the sector needs to be far more efficient in utilizing productive resources. The important issues addressed herein are: 1) health of global capture fisheries; 2) the role of aquaculture in filling the global fish supply - demand gap and potentially reducing the pressure on capture fisheries; and 3) implications of changes in the global fish markets on fish consumption, especially in China and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025: Strengthening AI Foundations
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-24) World Bank
    The recent rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has outpaced society’s ability to fully grasp its implications. Unlike technological shifts that have unfolded over decades, AI’s integration is accelerating at an unprecedented speed and scale. Along with AI’s immense opportunities come new responsibilities—especially for ethical deployment, accountability, and alignment with human values—that have few precedents in previous technology revolutions. This 2025 edition of the "Digital Progress and Trends Report (DPTR)" explores how low- and middle-income countries can harness AI to drive inclusive and sustainable development—and avoid being left behind. The report explains what makes AI different from earlier general-purpose technologies and why it matters for development. It introduces the 4Cs, the foundations essential for AI adoption, adaptation, and innovation: connectivity (infrastructure), compute (processing power), context (training data, algorithms, and applications), and competency (digital skills). Drawing on rich, novel data sets, this DPTR benchmarks countries across the 4Cs, analyzes supply and demand dynamics, and identifies market failures and externalities where policy action is urgently needed. This report emphasizes the need for global coordination and targeted interventions to close the widening AI gaps, where resource constraints threaten to exacerbate inequality. Policy insights will help governments unlock AI’s potential while navigating its risks.
  • Publication
    The World Bank Group Annual Report 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-09) World Bank Group
    The World Bank Group Annual Report 2025 presents on World Bank Group activities in fiscal 2025. The Annual Report is prepared by the Executive Directors of ICSID, IFC, MIGA, and the World Bank (IBRD/IDA) in accordance with the by-laws of the institutions. The President of the World Bank Group and Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors submit the Annual Report, together with the accompanying administrative budgets and audited financial statements, to the Board of Governors.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-01) Damania, Richard; Ebadi, Ebad; Mayr, Kentaro; Russ, Jason; Zaveri, Esha
    “Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet” explores how the foundational natural endowments of land, air, and water—long taken for granted—are under growing threat, putting at risk the very progress they helped create. For generations, natural resources have powered development, supporting health, food, energy, and economic opportunity. Today, strains on these resources are intensifying. This report argues that failing to maintain a livable planet is not merely a distant environmental concern, but a present economic threat. Drawing on new data, the report shows that over 90 percent of the world is exposed to poor air quality, degraded land, or water stress. Loss of forests cuts rainfall, dries soils, and worsens droughts, costing billions of dollars. The nitrogen paradox emerges—fertilizers boost yields but overuse in some regions harms crops and ecosystems. Meanwhile, air and water pollution silently damage health, productivity, and cognition, sapping human potential. The report warns that these hidden costs are too large to ignore. Yet the message is not one of constraint but of possibility. Nature, when wisely stewarded, can drive growth, create jobs, and build resilience. The report shows that more efficient resource use—like better nitrogen management and forest restoration—yields benefits that far exceed the costs. It also urges a shift to cleaner sectors and producing “better things,” noting that these provide new sources of growth, creating more jobs per dollar invested. The findings are clear: Investing in nature is not only good for the planet, it is smart development.