Publication:
Poverty Projections for Pakistan: Nowcasting and Forecasting

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dc.contributor.authorBarriga Cabanillas, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorKishwar, Shabana
dc.contributor.authorMeyer, Moritz
dc.contributor.authorNasir, Muhammad
dc.contributor.authorQazi, Maria
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-02T14:49:13Z
dc.date.available2025-01-02T14:49:13Z
dc.date.issued2025-01-02
dc.description.abstractIn the fiscal year 2018/19, 21.9 percent of the population in Pakistan lived below the national poverty line. Since then, the COVID-19 pandemic, devastating floods in 2022, and a macro-fiscal crisis with record inflation have profoundly impacted economic activity and income-earning opportunities. The absence of a new household survey limits the ability to ascertain the implications of these different shocks on household welfare and poverty. Up-to-date welfare information is crucial for formulating appropriate policy responses to crises that directly affect households’ socioeconomic well-being. To overcome the lack of current data, this paper proposes a microsimulation tool that combines microdata from the latest national household survey with high-frequency macro indicators to produce nowcasts and forecasts of poverty. The tool models household consumption by using individual and household characteristics and accounts for changes in labor markets, inflation, social transfers, and remittances. The results account for household-specific inflation rates, which reflect systematic variation in household consumption patterns and sector-specific growth rates. Using the preferred specification, the findings suggest that in the fiscal year 2022/23, the poverty rate stood at 25.3 percent, an increase of seven percentage points compared to the 2021/22 period, and representing about 13 million additional people falling into poverty. Moreover, in addition to the projected increase in poverty, poor households face disproportionately higher welfare losses and get pushed deeper into poverty.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099459512302438604/IDU17bf933d2197611440918caf1f63cb8d5bfdc
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11010
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-11010
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42587
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 11010
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectPOVERTY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectPROJECTIONS
dc.subjectPAKISTAN
dc.titlePoverty Projections for Pakistanen
dc.title.subtitleNowcasting and Forecastingen
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2024-01-02
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-14T11:49:09.613878Z
okr.date.lastmodified2024-12-30T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099459512302438604/IDU17bf933d2197611440918caf1f63cb8d5bfdc
okr.guid099459512302438604
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-7bf933d2-9761-4409-8caf-f63cb8d5bfdc
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-11010
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34441987
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34441987
okr.identifier.reportWPS11010
okr.import.id6152
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099459512302438604/pdf/IDU17bf933d2197611440918caf1f63cb8d5bfdc.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryPakistan
okr.sectorSocial Protection
okr.themeInclusive Growth,Data Development and Capacity Building,Economic Policy,Economic Growth and Planning,Institutional strengthening and capacity building,Public Sector Management,Data production, accessibility and use
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Income
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Social Protections & Assistance
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Poverty Assessment
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.unitEFI-SAR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ESAPV)
okr.unitEFI-AFR2-POV-Poverty and Equity (EAWPV)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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