Publication: Infected and Stressed by Climate Variability: New Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh
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2021-10-10
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2021-10-10
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Bangladesh’s extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change is well documented. Through a complex pathway, climatic conditions have already negatively impacted human health worldwide. This is likely to escalate if predicted changes in weather patterns hold. Infectious disease transmission will change in pattern and incidence for certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, and waterborne diseases such as diarrhea and cholera. The incidence of respiratory disease will be affected by extreme temperatures that exacerbate the effects of allergens and of air pollution (World Bank 2012). If global warming progresses toward a 4°C increase scenario, a scenario presented as the worst case at the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference of Parties, stresses on human health can overburden the systems to a point where adaptation will no longer be possible (World Bank 2012). Hence the urgent need for the public sector to be better prepared to respond to the crisis. The consequences of climate change and/or climate variability are well documented and hypothesized. The literature linking climate change or climate variability and health, however, is less so. Climate variability refers to short-term changes in the average meteorological conditions over a month, a season, or a year. Climate change, however, refers to changes in average metrological conditions and seasonal patterns over a much longer time (Mani and Wang 2014). Compared to the availability of global evidence on this topic, the evidence from Bangladesh is far more limited. Among the studies available for Bangladesh, some require further substantiation because they are mostly regional one-off studies with a range of methodological limitations. In doing so, the report responds to several key questions, summarized in this subsection. What it does not do is construct mathematical models for projecting the incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases and mental health issues based on predicted climate change patterns. Nor does it attempt to establish a causal relationship between climate change and the selected health conditions. The report uses primary data from a nationally representative sample of about 3,600 households surveyed during the monsoon and dry seasons. It links weather variables, the incidence of selected diseases, and health conditions in Bangladesh to ensure that the findings are, as much as possible, based on precise climate and health data. The recommendations, therefore, are context-specific and drawn from primary evidence.
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“Raza, Wameq; Mahmud, Iffat; Hossain, Rafi. 2021. Infected and Stressed by Climate Variability: New Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36506 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Climate Afflictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-10-07)Bangladesh’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change is well documented; the evidence on the direct relationship between climate change and health focusing on Bangladesh is less so. Global evidence suggests intensification of climate change will increase incidences and variations of infectious diseases. Climate Afflictions contributes to filling this important knowledge gap. It includes a systematic review of existing literature on the relationship between climate change and health, distinguishing between climate change and variability. It establishes the relationship between climate variability and infectious diseases and mental health using household-level data. It also documents changes in climate patterns in Bangladesh over the past 44 years using monthly meteorological data. Overall, the report finds a strong relationship between infectious diseases, mental health, and climate variability. 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The burden of disease falls particularly heavily on low- and middle-income countries, where the exposure levels tend to be significantly higher. Bangladesh is among the hardest hit. The country was ranked as the most polluted country in the world between 2018 and 2021; its capital, Dhaka, was ranked as the second-most polluted city. In 2019, air pollution was the second-largest risk factor for deaths and disability in the country. Four of the top five causes of total deaths were directly associated with air pollution—stroke, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory tract infection. The most vulnerable populations are children, the elderly, and people with underlying health conditions. Higher rates of mortality and morbidity are further compounded by substantial associated economic costs. Global evidence on the relationship between air pollution and adverse health events has been widely available. Data points specific to Bangladesh, however, have been comparably sparse, and the quality of the available evidence has been limited. Breathing Heavy: New Evidence on Air Pollution and Health in Bangladesh addresses this paucity by combining primary data from Bangladesh and global evidence to establish the relationship between air pollution and reduced health. The evidence, in particular, identifies the urgent need for new initiatives to strengthen the health sector. These initiatives include bolstering public health response mechanisms along with health care service delivery, expanding the scope and accuracy of air pollution data, and understanding better the issues surrounding air pollution and its effects on health through further research. With climate change projected to further exacerbate air quality, it is increasingly critical for countries like Bangladesh to implement adaptation and mitigation measures. This seminal work will be of value to policy makers, practitioners, and subject matter experts as they address the growing challenges in policy dialogue under the overall framework of the government’s Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan Decade 2030.Publication An Unsustainable Life(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-11-07)A manifestation of climate change, temperature increases in Bangladesh are increasing at an alarming rate, with frequent bouts of extreme heat events. In 43 years, between 1980 and 2023, maximum temperature in the country increased by 1.1°C, while the “feels like” temperature rose by 4.5°C over the same duration. How does increasing exposure to excess heat affect the physical and mental health outcomes of individuals and their productivity in the short term? An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh analyzes temperature changes in Bangladesh between 1976 and 2023. The study then uses primary data collected in 2024 from a two-round household survey covering more than 16,000 individuals in Bangladesh to quantify the adverse effect of rising temperatures on specific physical and mental health conditions as well as productivity losses. Using the findings, the report serves three main purposes: (1) provide localized evidence that links the effect of heat on health and recommend effective adaptation measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of the Bangladeshi population to heat; (2) quantify economic losses borne by the country due to global warming to assist Bangladeshi policy makers in leveraging international support and financing to mitigate the impacts; and (3) add evidence to the global discourse on heat and human physical and mental health, and loss of productivity. The evidence presented in this report underscores the immediate need for comprehensive strategies to address the escalating health risks posed by climate change, notably heat, in Bangladesh. Interventions that can help individuals moderate the effects of heat on their health are critical to ensure the well-being of the Bangladeshi population. Learning from best practices of climate-comparable countries and leveraging localized information, Bangladesh can create a more resilient future to better address the impacts of climate change.
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