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Trade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorBaniya, Suprabha
dc.contributor.authorRocha, Nadia
dc.contributor.authorRuta, Michele
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-10T18:53:22Z
dc.date.available2019-01-10T18:53:22Z
dc.date.issued2019-01
dc.description.abstractThis paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, also referred to as the New Silk Road, on the 71 countries potentially involved. The initiative consists of several infrastructure investment projects to improve the land and maritime transportation in the Belt and Road Initiative region. The analysis first uses geo-referenced data and geographical information system analysis to compute the bilateral time to trade before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. Then, it estimates the effect of improvement in bilateral time to trade on bilateral export values and trade patterns, using a gravity model and a comparative advantage model. Finally, the analysis combines the estimates from the regression analysis with the results of the geographical information system analysis to quantify the potential trade effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper finds that (i) the Belt and Road Initiative increases trade flows among participating countries by up to 4.1 percent; (ii) these effects would be three times as large on average if trade reforms complemented the upgrading in transport infrastructure; and (iii) products that use time sensitive inputs and countries that are highly exposed to the new infrastructure and integrated in global value chains have larger trade gains.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/Trade-Effects-of-the-New-Silk-Road-A-Gravity-Analysis
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8694
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/31138
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 8694
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectBELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
dc.subjectTRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectGIS ANALYSIS
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTIME SENSITIVITY
dc.subjectINPUT-OUTPUT LINKAGES
dc.subjectGRAVITY MODEL
dc.subjectGEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM
dc.subjectTRADE AND INVESTMENT
dc.titleTrade Effects of the New Silk Roaden
dc.title.subtitleA Gravity Analysisen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleTrade Effects of the New Silk Road: A Gravity Analysis
okr.date.disclosure2019-01-10
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/Trade-Effects-of-the-New-Silk-Road-A-Gravity-Analysis
okr.guid623141547127268639
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-8694
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b086ea7557_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum30751301
okr.identifier.reportWPS8694
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/623141547127268639/pdf/WPS8694.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryChina
okr.statistics.combined21368
okr.statistics.dr623141547127268639
okr.statistics.drstats18882
okr.topicTransport::Transport Economics Policy & Planning
okr.topicTransport::Ports and Waterways
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Export Competitiveness
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Foreign Direct Investment
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Facilitation
okr.topicInternational Economics and Trade::Trade Finance and Investment
okr.topicTransport::Railroads
okr.topicTransport::Roads & Highways
okr.unitMacroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryf938bd19-ef80-50c5-9b58-e8429fce3b91
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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