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Fiscal Policy Issues in the Aging Societies

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dc.contributor.authorBogetic, Zeljko
dc.contributor.authorOnder, Harun
dc.contributor.authorOnal, Anil
dc.contributor.authorSkrok, Emilia
dc.contributor.authorSchwartz, Anita
dc.contributor.authorWinkler, Hernan
dc.date.accessioned2015-04-24T20:53:07Z
dc.date.available2015-04-24T20:53:07Z
dc.date.issued2015-03
dc.description.abstractAging may be one of the most far-reaching processes defining the economic, fiscal, and social changes societies are likely to experience over the next 40 years. The demographic consequences of aging will have a dramatic impact on labor markets, economic growth, social structures--and government budgets. These issues have gained urgency after the second largest global recession in the past 100 years. Based on a broad comparative analysis of countries that include the EU and non-EU European and Central Asian countries, as well as several case studies and model simulations, the paper seeks to provide broad answers--tailored in part to distinct groups of countries according to their aging-fiscal profiles--to major questions facing governments budgets in aging societies: What are the fiscal-aging profiles of Western European, emerging European, and Central Asian countries? In other words, how good or bad is their fiscal situation--"initial conditions"--in view of their emerging aging-related problems? What kind of public spending pressures are likely to emerge in the coming decades, and what will be their relative importance? How do countries compare in terms of the possible impacts of aging on growth and long-term debt sustainability? What can be learned from in-depth and comparative case studies of aging, fiscal sustainability, and fiscal reform? Are there good-practice examples--countries doing things right at the right time--that may offer lessons for the others? And, perhaps most important, given the need for long-term fiscal consolidation for many countries, what kind of revenue and expenditure policy agendas are likely to emerge to mitigate the effects of aging? A key policy conclusion is that countries should aim for early rather than delayed reforms dealing with long-term aging pressures. The urgency is accentuated by the debt situations and/or adverse debt and demographic dynamics in almost all countries but also by the evolving voter preferences. As societies age and voting preferences increasingly reflect the political will of the older population, it will become more difficult to enact the necessary reforms ensuring social and fiscal sustainability.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/03/24200847/fiscal-policy-issues-aging-societies
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/21782
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/21782
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management Discussion Paper;no. 1
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGING
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectAGE-RELATED SPENDING
dc.subjectEUROPE
dc.subjectCENTRAL ASIA AGING
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectAGE-RELATED SPENDING
dc.subjectEUROPE
dc.subjectCENTRAL ASIA
dc.subjectACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCUMULATION OF DEBT
dc.subjectADULT MORTALITY
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectAGE DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectAGED
dc.subjectAGING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEETS
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectBENEFICIARY
dc.subjectBUDGET CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICITS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCAREGIVERS
dc.subjectCHILD MORTALITY
dc.subjectCLOSED ECONOMY
dc.subjectCURRENCY
dc.subjectCURRENCY COMPOSITION
dc.subjectCURRENT POPULATION
dc.subjectDEBT BURDEN
dc.subjectDEBT BURDENS
dc.subjectDEBT CRISIS
dc.subjectDEBT ISSUANCE
dc.subjectDEBT MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectDEBT RATIO
dc.subjectDEBT STOCK
dc.subjectDEFICITS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIO
dc.subjectDEPENDENCY RATIOS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectDISABILITY
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectDURABLE
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectELDERLY
dc.subjectELDERLY PEOPLE
dc.subjectEXCISE TAXES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectFACTORS OF PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFAMILIES
dc.subjectFERTILITY
dc.subjectFERTILITY RATES
dc.subjectFEWER CHILDREN
dc.subjectFINANCES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSOLIDATIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFISCAL REFORMS
dc.subjectFUTURE GENERATIONS
dc.subjectGENERATIONAL ACCOUNTING
dc.subjectGENERATIONAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BONDS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT BUDGETS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE
dc.subjectHEALTH CARE SYSTEM
dc.subjectHEALTH REFORM
dc.subjectHEALTH SECTOR
dc.subjectHEALTH SERVICES
dc.subjectHEALTH SPENDING
dc.subjectHEALTH SYSTEMS
dc.subjectHIGH POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectHOSPITAL
dc.subjectIMMIGRATION
dc.subjectIMPLICIT DEBT
dc.subjectINCENTIVE STRUCTURE
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOME TAXES
dc.subjectINDEBTED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINDEBTEDNESS
dc.subjectINEQUITIES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
dc.subjectINITIAL DEBT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL EFFORTS
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCES
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLIABILITY
dc.subjectLIFE EXPECTANCY
dc.subjectLIFELONG LEARNING
dc.subjectLONG-TERM CARE
dc.subjectLONG-TERM DEBT
dc.subjectLOW FERTILITY
dc.subjectLOWER FERTILITY
dc.subjectMARKET REGULATION
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectMIGRATION FLOW
dc.subjectMORTALITY
dc.subjectMORTALITY RATE
dc.subjectNUMBER OF CHILDREN
dc.subjectNUMBER OF PEOPLE
dc.subjectNURSES
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOLD AGE
dc.subjectOLD-AGE
dc.subjectOLD-AGE PENSION
dc.subjectOLD-AGE PENSIONS
dc.subjectOPEN ECONOMY
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPARTICULAR COUNTRY
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION CONTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPENSION CONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectPENSION FUND
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPERSONAL INCOME
dc.subjectPHYSICIANS
dc.subjectPOLICY CHANGE
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOPULATION DECLINE
dc.subjectPOPULATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH RATES
dc.subjectPOPULATION PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectPOPULATION SIZE
dc.subjectPOPULATION STRUCTURE
dc.subjectPORTFOLIOS
dc.subjectPRIVATE SAVINGS
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPUBLIC
dc.subjectPUBLIC BUDGET
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC EDUCATION
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC PENSION
dc.subjectPUBLIC REVENUES
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectQUALITY OF LIFE
dc.subjectQUALITY OF SERVICES
dc.subjectRATE OF POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN
dc.subjectRATES OF GROWTH
dc.subjectREGULATORY FRAMEWORKS
dc.subjectREPLACEMENT RATES
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRETIREMENT AGE
dc.subjectRETIREMENT AGES
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN
dc.subjectSECONDARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectSHORT TERM DEBT
dc.subjectSOCIAL CHANGES
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subjectSOCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectSOCIAL SYSTEMS
dc.subjectSTATE GUARANTEES
dc.subjectSTOCK EXCHANGE
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL PROBLEMS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX EXEMPTIONS
dc.subjectTAX POLICY
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectTAX SYSTEM
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
dc.subjectTERTIARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectTRANSITION COUNTRIES
dc.subjectTREATY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectWAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectWORK FORCE
dc.subjectWORKERS
dc.subjectWORKING POPULATION
dc.subjectWORKING-AGE POPULATION
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectWORLD POPULATION
dc.subjectYOUNG PEOPLE
dc.subjectYOUNG POPULATIONS
dc.titleFiscal Policy Issues in the Aging Societiesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.date.disclosure2015-03-25
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T12:21:51.450026Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/03/24200847/fiscal-policy-issues-aging-societies
okr.globalpracticeMacroeconomics and Fiscal Management
okr.guid846591468327934918
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b082f8b530_3_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum24200847
okr.identifier.report95266
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/03/25/000456286_20150325111021/Rendered/PDF/952660NWP0MFM000Box385292B00PUBLIC0.pdfen
okr.topicHealth Monitoring and Evaluation
okr.topicPublic Sector Economics
okr.topicPrivate Sector Development::Emerging Markets
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Population Policies
okr.topicFinance and Financial Sector Development::Debt Markets
okr.topicPublic Sector Development
okr.unitMacro & Fiscal Mgmt - GP (GMFDR)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationd61c0c55-6729-5ba5-aa32-ba74610c7f12
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationeddcc23f-a575-570a-82eb-10a4e678e2e4
relation.isAuthorOfPublication6b2974ae-b71a-507e-ad52-3881bd3a0605
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery6b2974ae-b71a-507e-ad52-3881bd3a0605
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