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Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War: Evidence from Ethiopia

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dc.contributor.authorAbay, Kibrom A.
dc.contributor.authorTafere, Kibrom
dc.contributor.authorBerhane, Guush
dc.contributor.authorChamberlin, Jordan
dc.contributor.authorAbay, Mehari H.
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-15T19:59:20Z
dc.date.available2022-04-15T19:59:20Z
dc.date.issued2022-04
dc.description.abstractEthiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood activities of affected households. The analysis uses difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the civil war. The findings show that seven months into the conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38 percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data on households’ exposure to violent conflict, the analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most affected by the conflict, while farming activities have been relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in urban areas have been much more affected than those in rural areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely to be underestimates of the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing direct evidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paper highlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10004
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/37309
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;10004
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectFOOD INSECURITY
dc.subjectLIVELIHOODS
dc.subjectPHONE SURVEY DATA
dc.subjectFOOD ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectWELFARE IMPACT OF ARMED CONFLICT
dc.subjectARMED CONFLICT
dc.subjectWAR IMPACT
dc.subjectHUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectVIOLENT CONFLICT
dc.subjectCONFLICT AND DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
dc.titleNear-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil Waren
dc.title.subtitleEvidence from Ethiopiaen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleNear-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War: Evidence from Ethiopia
okr.date.disclosure2022-04-14
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:15:37.904829Z
okr.date.lastmodified2022-04-14T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179
okr.guid099237104142234870
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10004
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum33786195
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33786195
okr.identifier.reportWPS10004
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/pdf/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179.pdfen
okr.region.countryEthiopia
okr.topicConflict and Development::Armed Conflict
okr.topicConflict and Development::Conflict and Fragile States
okr.topicSocial Development::Post Conflict Reintegration
okr.topicSocial Development::Social Conflict and Violence
okr.unitDEC-Sustainability & Infrastruct (DECSI)
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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