South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017: Growth Out of the Blue

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1213-2

Publication:
South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017: Growth Out of the Blue

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.accessioned	2017-09-25T19:48:44Z
dc.date.available	2017-09-25T19:48:44Z
dc.date.issued	2017-10-08
dc.description.abstract	For eight consecutive quarters South Asia was the fastest-growing region in the world… but not anymore. Despite benign global conditions, regional growth has slowed down. This trend is the result of a deceleration in India, the region’s powerhouse. Short-term disruptions related to the introduction of the landmark Goods and Services Tax can explain the steep decline observed in the last quarter, but the deceleration has been going on for more than one year. Over this period imports increased sharply while private investment declined. Behind these trends lies a combination of large public sector borrowing (especially by the states), relatively sticky interest rates despite decreasing inflation, and an increasingly stressed financial sector. While growth has slightly accelerated elsewhere in the region, concerns remain. Bangladesh has seen an increase in financial sector risks and in Pakistan macroeconomic discipline has weakened. At 6.7 percent, growth is projected to remain strong in South Asia in 2017, albeit slightly lower than forecast in June. The growth rate is expected to stabilize around 7 percent over the medium term. Consumption should remain strong and private investment should regain momentum thanks to ongoing support from infrastructure development and economic reforms. Measuring GDP is especially challenging in developing countries, where the informal sector is large and institutional constraints can be severe. As a result, GDP growth estimates are often met with skepticism. But new technologies offer an opportunity to improve matters. Luminosity observed from satellites has been shown to be a good proxy for economic activity, and methodologies have been developed in recent years to predict GDP over time and across space based on nightlight intensity. In South Asia’s case, GDP predicted using these methodologies closely tracks National Accounts GDP at the aggregate level, and provides a granular picture of GDP at subnational levels. Nightlight intensity also yields new insights on recent economic developments.	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/978-1-4648-1213-2
dc.identifier.isbn	978-1-4648-1213-2
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/28397
dc.language	English
dc.language.iso	en_US
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject	ECONOMIC RISKS
dc.subject	EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY
dc.subject	FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject	INFLATION AND PRICES
dc.subject	INVESTMENT
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK
dc.subject	TRADE
dc.title	South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017	en
dc.title.subtitle	Growth Out of the Blue	en
dc.type	Serial	en
dc.type	Sériel	fr
dc.type	Serial	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	South Asia Economic Focus, Fall 2017: Growth Out of the Blue
okr.date.disclosure	2017-10-08
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.doctype	Publications & Research::Publication
okr.identifier.doi	10.1596/978-1-4648-1213-2
okr.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1213-2
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	211213
okr.imported	true
okr.language.supported	en
okr.region.administrative	South Asia
okr.region.country	India
okr.topic	International Economics and Trade::Export Competitiveness
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Investment and Investment Climate
okr.topic	Poverty Reduction::Achieving Shared Growth
okr.unit	SARCE