Publication:
How to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022

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dc.contributor.authorAgarwal, Ruchir
dc.contributor.authorReed, Tristan
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-19T20:58:13Z
dc.date.available2021-04-19T20:58:13Z
dc.date.issued2021-04
dc.description.abstractHow can the world reach herd immunity against COVID-19 before the second anniversary of the pandemic, or March 2022? A study of vaccine demand and supply answers this question. A target of vaccinating 60 percent of the population in each country by March 2022 is likely sufficient to achieve worldwide herd immunity under a baseline scenario with limited mutation. Achieving this target appears feasible given stated production capacity of vaccine manufacturers and the pace of current and historical vaccination campaigns. Considering existing pre-purchase contracts for vaccines, achieving this target requires addressing a procurement gap of just 350 million vaccine courses in low- and middle-income countries. Immediate additional donor funding of about $4 billion or in-kind donations of excess orders by high-income countries would be sufficient to close this gap. There are additional challenges along the path to achieving world-wide herd immunity---including supply chain issues, trade restrictions, vaccine delivery, and mutations. Overall however, this analysis suggests multilateral action now can bring an end to the acute phase of the pandemic early next year.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9632
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35454
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 9632
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectCOVID-19 VACCINATION
dc.subjectSUPPLY CHAIN
dc.subjectVACCINE SUPPLY
dc.subjectVACCINE PROCUREMENT
dc.subjectVACCINE FINANCE
dc.subjectPANDEMIC
dc.titleHow to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022en
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleHow to End the COVID-19 Pandemic by March 2022
okr.date.disclosure2021-04-15
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:55:14.149162Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022
okr.guid181611618494084337
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-9632
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0884d5dee_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33000859
okr.identifier.reportWPS9632
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/181611618494084337/pdf/How-to-End-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-by-March-2022.pdfen
okr.statistics.combined13461
okr.statistics.dr181611618494084337
okr.statistics.drstats8607
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Disease Control & Prevention
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Health Economics & Finance
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Immunizations
okr.topicHealth, Nutrition and Population::Public Health Promotion
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group, Development Economics
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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