Publication:
Internal Conflicts and Shocks: A Narrative Meta-Analysis

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dc.contributor.authorLaville, Camille
dc.contributor.authorMandon, Pierre
dc.date.accessioned2023-02-27T18:14:09Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-06T16:37:49Z
dc.date.available2023-02-27T18:14:09Z
dc.date.available2023-03-06T16:37:49Z
dc.date.issued2023-02
dc.description.abstractDo income shocks locally affect internal conflicts To address this question, this paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 2,464 infranational estimates from 64 recent empirical studies on conflicts and income-related shocks in developing countries. After accounting for publication selection bias, the analysis finds that, on average, wealth-increasing shocks in the agriculture sector are negatively associated with the local risk of conflict. Nonetheless, the analysis finds no average effect of wealth-decreasing shocks in the agriculture sector or wealth-increasing shocks in the extractive sector on the local risk of conflict. The paper also shows that studies that fail to uncover empirical effects that conform to researchers’ expectations on the theoretical mechanisms are less likely to be published. Differences in the geographical area of study, the choice of control variables, and the way shocks are measured substantially explain the heterogeneity among estimates in the literature.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099024402232348023/IDU0580a732f0160c04a690950100390349bc4d5
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10315
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/39473
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Papers;10315
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCLIMATE SHOCK
dc.subjectCOMMODITY SHOCKS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectINCOME-DRIVEN CONFLICT
dc.subjectMETA-REGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectLOCAL RISK OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectWEALTH-INCREASING SHOCK
dc.titleInternal Conflicts and Shocksen
dc.title.subtitleA Narrative Meta-Analysisen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.typeDocument de travailfr
dc.typeDocumento de trabajoes
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleInternal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis
okr.date.disclosure2023-02-23
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T11:24:51.143982Z
okr.date.lastmodified2023-02-24T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypeWorking Papers
okr.doctypeWorking Papers::Policy Research Working Papers
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099024402232348023/IDU0580a732f0160c04a690950100390349bc4d5
okr.guid099024402232348023
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10315
okr.identifier.externaldocumentumIDU-580a732f-160c-4a69-9501-0390349bc4d5
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34008307
okr.identifier.reportWPS10315
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099024402232348023/pdf/IDU0580a732f0160c04a690950100390349bc4d5.pdfen
okr.topicConflict and Development::Disaster Management
okr.topicConflict and Development::National Protection and Security
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Income
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Insecurity
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Stabilization
okr.unitEFI-AFR2-MTI-MacroFiscal-2 (EAWM2)
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