Country-Level Seasonal Threat Profiles: Operationalizing Seasonal Forecasts into Decision-Relevant Risk Metrics

Publication:
Country-Level Seasonal Threat Profiles: Operationalizing Seasonal Forecasts into Decision-Relevant Risk Metrics

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.date.accessioned	2022-11-02T20:40:29Z
dc.date.available	2022-11-02T20:40:29Z
dc.date.issued	2022-05-31
dc.description.abstract	This technical note - prepared by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute at Columbia University and World Bank’s Global Crisis Risk Platform (GCRP) - details methodological steps to analyze seasonal precipitation anomaly forecasts, and integrate outcomes into emerging risk information at country levels. As part of the Global Crisis Risk Platform’s work on compound risk, a prototype classification system is presented for showcasing country-level seasonal risk information that is tailored to national decision-making environments. Three prototypes are detailed, each with increasing levels of complexity and input data. Prototype 1.0 presents a country level threat profile based only on precipitation anomalies from IRI seasonal forecast output, based on precipitation forecasts anomalies, or deviations from ‘climate normal’ conditions, over the next three months. Prototype 1.1 builds off 1.0, with integration of persistence in dry conditions by combining observed precipitation anomalies over recent months with forecast information. Finally, Prototype 1.2 includes criteria related to both population exposure and land use to enhance Prototype 1.1. For each prototype a justification for the methodology is presented, including a rationale for both the input data used and definition of thresholds. Acknowledging the influence of method selection and threshold definition has on outputs, the methodology systematically assesses sensitivity of these critical variables by noting how Prototype outputs change over time, using 12 consecutive forecasts from April 2020 to March 2021.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099641110262228787/IDU06b68ae9809cd00490f084c60b8cadbca3aaa
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/38246
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38246
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subject	GLOBAL CRISIS RISK PLATFORM
dc.subject	INTERNATINAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
dc.subject	SEASONAL RISK
dc.subject	COUNTRY LEVEL RISKS
dc.subject	RISK FORECAST
dc.subject	RISK MANAGEMENT
dc.title	Country-Level Seasonal Threat Profiles	en
dc.title.subtitle	Operationalizing Seasonal Forecasts into Decision-Relevant Risk Metrics	en
dc.type	Report	en
dc.type	Rapport	fr
dc.type	Informe	es
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.crossref.title	Country-Level Seasonal Threat Profiles
okr.date.disclosure	2022-10-26
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-05-05T12:40:06.919996Z
okr.date.lastmodified	2022-10-26T00:00:00Z	en
okr.doctype	Report
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099641110262228787/IDU06b68ae9809cd00490f084c60b8cadbca3aaa
okr.guid	099641110262228787
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	IDU-6b68ae98-9cd0-490f-84c6-b8cadbca3aaa
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	33925666
okr.identifier.report	177320
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099641110262228787/pdf/IDU06b68ae9809cd00490f084c60b8cadbca3aaa.pdf	en
okr.region.geographical	World
okr.topic	Social Development::Social Risk Management
okr.topic	Macroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Forecasting
okr.topic	Conflict and Development::National Protection and Security