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Afghanistan’s New Economic Landscape: Using Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 2021

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dc.contributor.authorBarriga Cabanillas, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorKosmidou-Bradley, Walker
dc.contributor.authorRedaelli, Silvia
dc.contributor.authorTateishi, Eigo
dc.contributor.authorTeruggi, Ivo
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-18T15:03:01Z
dc.date.available2024-11-18T15:03:01Z
dc.date.issued2024-11-18
dc.description.abstractThis study uses nighttime lights to examine the evolution of economic activity in Afghanistan after the August 2021 regime change. A year later, nighttime luminosity had dropped by 20 percent, with two-thirds of this decline tied to the pre-planned international military withdrawal. To focus on local economic activity, the study filters out light emissions from foreign military installations, which accounted for up to 30 percent of lights over the past decade. Using civilian nighttime lights to understand the new economic reality in the country indicates a significant economic recovery concentrated in previously conflict-affected regions. By 2023/24, civilian luminosity had surpassed pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent while, in contrast, official gross domestic product indicates an economy that is one-quarter smaller. The findings highlight changes in economic dynamics, including increased informality, shifts in the geographic distribution of activity, and improved security post-Taliban takeover.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099256511062426629/IDU1f7011ce815ecb1494d1a0e61042efed1a409
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10969
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/42430
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC: World Bank
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; 10969
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectNIGHTTIME LIGHTS
dc.subjectSYNTHETIC CONTROL
dc.subjectAFGHANISTAN
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectDATA SCARCITY
dc.titleAfghanistan’s New Economic Landscapeen
dc.title.subtitleUsing Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 2021en
dc.typeWorking Paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleAfghanistan’s New Economic Landscape: Using Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 2021
okr.date.disclosure2024-11-18
okr.date.lastmodified2024-11-06T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePolicy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099256511062426629/IDU1f7011ce815ecb1494d1a0e61042efed1a409
okr.guid099256511062426629
okr.identifier.docmidIDU-f7011ce8-5ecb-494d-a0e6-042efed1a409
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-10969
okr.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10969
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum34418579
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum34418579
okr.identifier.reportWPS10969
okr.import.id5804
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099256511062426629/pdf/IDU1f7011ce815ecb1494d1a0e61042efed1a409.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.countryAfghanistan
okr.topicIndustry::Industrial and Market Data and Reporting
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicUrban Development
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.unitEFI-SAR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ESAPV)
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationabd65b6a-4f54-540d-87ee-72fd57032a28
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryabd65b6a-4f54-540d-87ee-72fd57032a28
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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